[Shastanis Althreduin]

G55:

Regarding the KitSeer incident -

Originally Posted by G55

Copper sounds genuine and innocent.

Pitch, meanwhile, looks less than so:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.
That's a good way of playing a reverse psychology trick on inocents - "they wouldn't think that a wolf would be dumb enough to add (not even correct... add) to another's statement something that could incriminate him" line of thought. A kind of bluff. A wolf would not emphasize his own guiltiness, right? That must make him innocent etc.

I don't like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

And #148 -

Originally Posted by G55

My suspicion list at the moment is a copy of mirror's, except that just switch my name around with hers. I shall take a look at Shasta, Pitch, and Eomer.

Originally Posted by Cop

Wolves: Nessa, Inziladun.

Potential wolves: Eomer, Shasta, Pitchwife.

Probably innocent: Galadriel55

Known innocents: Sally, Coppermirror (known to me, anyway)

Deceased known innocents: Nerwen, Kitanna

From her analysis of Pitch -

Originally Posted by G55

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
All right, so yesterDay that post got me into a mood that really went not in Pitchie's favour. The reason for that is that I've seen almost exact copies of that post said by wolves who want to avoid any extra interaction that may get them under suspicion, or to hide the fact that they have extra knowledge behind the convenient situation that now everyone knows it.

Now, though, as I reread the thread I can see a reason for an innocent Pitch to be so passionate about it. Kit didn't say she'll wait a bit before giving the name. She said she won't give it to a village that doesn't trust her, which, from a certain point of view, could sound ridiculous.

Originally Posted by G55

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.
Would that not be a convenient post for a wolf to make? "I don't like it, so that's my excuse for when she turns out innocent, but I'll vote her anyway since she, after all, is more suspicious and less believable and etc [insert "reasons"]".

But on the other hand, again, Pitch could just be an innocent who believed Zil but had a genuine bad feeling about lynching Kit.

And regarding Pitch's vote for Kitanna over Inzil -

Originally Posted by G55

Can't tell much about the intentions behind the words from the arguments; they are true and most things are taken in consideration. The vote for Kit could be cast by a confused ordo (sally's there too) or a knowing wolf. But it works just a bit too well if Pitch is the last wolf who was trying to save his mate, and since he voted early it explains why no one gave the final push to the Kitwagon. Unless the remaining wolf is bold and confident enough to sacrifice Zil just in case, even when there was a good chance of saving him.

Originally Posted by G55

Anyways, I still don't have a clear picture of who might be the last wolf, but Pitch and Eomer seem to me more likely choices than Shasta.

Later...

Originally Posted by G55

Also, I don't know why exactly, but the last few posts by Pitchie make me drop my suspicions on him a bit again. Head tells me "danger" and vibes tell me "safe". Ddd Urgh! Why am I so conflicted about Pitch?

Regarding Pitch's vote for Eomer -

Originally Posted by G55

I rather like Pitch's vote. Adds to the number of notches for his innocence.

Regarding Cop -

Originally Posted by G55

Personally I highly doubt she's a wolf. The D1 vote would have been immensly daring and unexpected for a first vote ever. And in general copper's comments strike me as jen-you-wine, usually making sense and pretty sharp, only sometimes with the trace of newbishness.


And, as Pitch said, if she's a wolf and is playing her first ever game so well, she deserves to win. Though I'd rather have a goodies' victory in that case, I would not grudge a loss to her. But that's beside the point. I'm not analysing her posts because she doesn't strike me as the remaining wolf.

Conclusions:
G55 is pretty suspicious of Pitch early on, then gets to be more wishy-washy about him. However, she's much more suspicious of him than she is of Cop, whom she never seriously considers to be a wolf. The only real reason I can come up with for Copwolf to decide to kill G55 is that it seemed a big part of G55's trust in her stemmed from "Well, she's a newbie, I can't see her doing that", and it being possible that she might be swayed later - but when you combine that with the answers to "why not Sally?" (which I haven't even looked at yet), not even that appears to make much sense.

Summa summarum - It's pretty difficult to come up with a reason why killing G55 is a good move for Cop, whereas it doesn't not make sense for Pitch.

On to sally. Hopefully things will be clearer when I'm done there.