[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No kill last Night and no ranger to stop it...NOw that is either a darn bad luck for the wolves (they managed to post 3 X 3 names without a single one colliding with the other aka. covering 9 out of 10) oer then one or two wolves are really lackluster... Which brings to my mind the idea of lynching Skip Spence toDay unless he doesn't appear toDay when he will be modfired anyway.

But sure this feels like there is at least one wolf - if not two - who are very inactive. Or, like I said, they had a ridiculously bad luck.

Truth. I actually need to have another look at the rules to see precisely how the wolves' kill choice works, because....the odds of them all picking different people are insane. Of course they could have picked each other, but then wouldn't they- no, no, I'm going to read the admin thread later and I shall comment more on last Night's events at that time. In any case, whether by luck or laziness, we have all risen to see another Day, and I shall count this as a blessing.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I actually mentioned that on the admin thread, actually.

Actually.

Originally Posted by Copper

YesterDay was a shambles, with so few posts. We don't have a lot to go on from that. At least with there being no Night kill this time, there's a little less time pressure.

Day 1 - Innocent lynched. Village 7, Wolves 3.
Night 2 - No death. Village 7, Wolves 3.

The worst case scenario from this point on is:

Day 2 - Innocent lynched. Village 6, wolves 3.
Night 3 - Innocent killed. Village 5, wolves 3.
Day 3 - Innocent lynched. Village 4, wolves 3.
Night 4 - Innocent killed. Village 3, wolves 3. Village loses, wolves win.

...Actually, I see I'm wrong. This doesn't give us less time pressure. If there had been a Night kill, we'd simply have lost at the end of Day 3. rather than on Night 4. We have to catch a wolf toDay or tomorrow. There's also a chance that the wolves will kill one of their own, but that chance reduces as time goes on, and judging by the lack of a Night kill, it's reasonably likely that two of them are in contact. Or it could be as Nogrod suggested: maybe at least one wolf is in among the people who didn't show and are at risk of being mod-fired. Statistically there are good odds that at least one of those at risk of mod-fire is a wolf.

Your mathulations make me happy, as it means I don't have to do the thinking necessary to do them myself (because, quite frankly, I have neither the time nor the energy today). However, Wolfphry's Law dictates that whoever can be modfired, will be modfired, and rarely will this help the village. Let's continue to hope that one of the wolves is idle (at this point, is that just Skip?), but let us by no means assume that is the case.

Also, things always look bad, especially in a small village. It both is and is not as bad as it seems. Play the game. Hunt the wolves. Let the numbers speak for themselves as the Days progress and then have a panic attack about numbers. Right now three wolves are not as big a threat as you might think (well, they are, but it's not exactly dire circumstances at this point).

Originally Posted by Copper

If some players really are going to get mod-fired, I'm not sure what the best plan is for toDay. There are too many variables here, not knowing who's going to show up. I'd like to be able to work out the odds of whether Nog's suggestion of possibly lynching Skip Spence would be to our advantage.

There are three wolves. If we have no candidates toward Day's end, then fine, sure, let's kill someone who is going to die anyway to in a way buy ourselves more time, but even if Skip is a wolf, he has packmates, and they must likewise be killed. I'd rather go out in a blaze of accidentally nuking the village than to kill villagers in their sleep and hope that we chase out the wolves that way.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But my question is, why do you feel the need to bring that up? With a smiley?

I've read through the two pages (thank you so much for making this easy on my brain, my darlings) and I don't think this is quite the issue it has been made out to be. Yes, Nog took this a bit too seriously, perhaps, but he's not campaigning to kill Shasta because of that comment. Let us ignore that exchange for at least the moment and concentrate on other things. Mountains, molehills, and soon, murderous- oh, never mind, Nilp's not playing, so there's no use in being blissfully masochistic. *grump* Still, let's take this easy, at least for toDay.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

"Agree"? He did jump on Shasta– no question. I wonder why, though.

Because he's Nog and, bless him, he can overthink things quite easily. I call no harm on this once more and am now moving on from it. However, this is a prime opportunity for someone to slip in and either side with Nog or try to paint him a villain for jumping on my starry-eyed darling. If this talk does continue, I'll be keeping a much closer eye on those involved.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bleurgh!

My keyboard has gone partly crazy> I must have hit some queer key/combination *see!( as my special marks come from totally odd keys and some have disappeared totally like _ aka. the questionmark...

Does anyone know what kind of combinations change the keys_

*I\ll try closing the machine first though(

Funniest thing I've seen all day. ^_^

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Thanks. Yeah, I shot the laptop off and then on again. Darn shortcut -key combinations...

RED LIGHT. RED LIGHT. RED LIGHT. Or, you know, typo. Still hilarious though. (Tell me. Did you shoot the battery?)