The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - WW: XCVIII ~ Game Thread ~ Death at the Foot of Taniquetil

Coppermirror · 10-21-2012, 12:52 AM

Nogrod on Day 2

- Thinks there's at least one inactive wolf, due to the lack of night kill.

- Considers that perhaps two wolves knew each other and that's why there was no night kill. (We now know this can't be true.)

- Questions Shasta (now proven innocent) about a post and a smiley.

- General talk about encouraging people to post.

- Explains some things to Pom about his Day 1 reasoning, saying that he thought some things Pom said made more sense if looked at from the perspective of a wolf who wasn't seeing things like a villager. Admits that his Day 1 reasoning was thin and uncertain.

- Says "It is interesting how there seems to be a collective meme around that I "jumped" on Shasta".

- Asks Greenie why she isn't calling Nerwen's statement that he jumped on Shasta a case of him being jumped on in turn. Says the issue is making mountains out of molehills and he won't talk about this issue again unless he's in danger of being lynched.

- Says that I'm posting a lot but not suspecting many people, Boro is talking too nicely and scaring him, and Greenie is likely more innocent than not, but he's more likely than not to vote for a submarine that's not going to be mod-fired.

- Says that it seems we have no good candidates for lynching and it seems nasty to pick anyone with this little to go on, and so suggests we lynch Skip Spence (wolf) as damage control so we have more time for reasoning later.

- Talks with Shasta about Boromir using the phrase "shot in the dark" before Rune did. Thinks that might be a phrase a wolf could use for signaling...or that an innocent could have used it just as common idiom.

- Defends the lynching Skip idea to Greenie on the grounds that Skip had 1/3 odds of being a wolf.

- Suggests that we all vote for different people and decide by dice

. At this point 4 people had already voted, and all for different people.

- Says Pom's explanations were a bit over-thought and might have been made up afterwards, Boro is "is too nice and holding back anything he possibly suspects only talking nice to others", Skip would be damage control, and he's still a little suspicious of Nerwen even if others might think he's overreaching. Adds that there's still little to go on.

- Votes for Nerwen. Wants to see who will blink. 6-way tie! (Would have been 7 if Sally's vote for Nog counted.)

- Explains that he wanted to try something completely different, and that "It probably serves us better than our reasoning as there is little or none of it - because there is nothing to go on - not only because of quietness but also because there are no wolf-co-operations either."

And then he gets killed overNight.

So, why might he have been killed?

Option (A). The wolves thought he was the Seer because of correct guesses.

It could be because of his suggestion to lynch Skip, who turned out to be a wolf. But as Nerwen said, this is unlikely unless Skip was a random Night 1 dream.

At the end of Day 2 it seemed as if his greatest suspicions were of Boro, Pom and Nerwen. It looked as if he was the most suspicious of Boro out of those.

But they could also have gone by correct guesses of innocence. If that's the case, then...actually he didn't seem to be too confident of anyone's innocence.

Option (B). He was an active player, probably the most active one we had.

Option (C). Killing Nog would cast doubt on someone else. That would most likely be the people Nog was suspicious of yesterDay. But there are some complications to this: wouldn't the wolves be gunning for the Seer?

Option (D). Traceless kill. I don't think this is likely.

So overall, I'd guess that it's more likely to be option (A). But it might make a difference whether or not the wolves are in contact. If someone has the time, could you work out the odds of that?

I probably won't be back until an hour or so before the deadline. Here's hoping that activity picks up.

10-21-2012, 12:52 AM	#128
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	Nogrod on Day 2 - Thinks there's at least one inactive wolf, due to the lack of night kill. - Considers that perhaps two wolves knew each other and that's why there was no night kill. (We now know this can't be true.) - Questions Shasta (now proven innocent) about a post and a smiley. - General talk about encouraging people to post. - Explains some things to Pom about his Day 1 reasoning, saying that he thought some things Pom said made more sense if looked at from the perspective of a wolf who wasn't seeing things like a villager. Admits that his Day 1 reasoning was thin and uncertain. - Says "It is interesting how there seems to be a collective meme around that I "jumped" on Shasta". - Asks Greenie why she isn't calling Nerwen's statement that he jumped on Shasta a case of him being jumped on in turn. Says the issue is making mountains out of molehills and he won't talk about this issue again unless he's in danger of being lynched. - Says that I'm posting a lot but not suspecting many people, Boro is talking too nicely and scaring him, and Greenie is likely more innocent than not, but he's more likely than not to vote for a submarine that's not going to be mod-fired. - Says that it seems we have no good candidates for lynching and it seems nasty to pick anyone with this little to go on, and so suggests we lynch Skip Spence (wolf) as damage control so we have more time for reasoning later. - Talks with Shasta about Boromir using the phrase "shot in the dark" before Rune did. Thinks that might be a phrase a wolf could use for signaling...or that an innocent could have used it just as common idiom. - Defends the lynching Skip idea to Greenie on the grounds that Skip had 1/3 odds of being a wolf. - Suggests that we all vote for different people and decide by dice . At this point 4 people had already voted, and all for different people. - Says Pom's explanations were a bit over-thought and might have been made up afterwards, Boro is "is too nice and holding back anything he possibly suspects only talking nice to others", Skip would be damage control, and he's still a little suspicious of Nerwen even if others might think he's overreaching. Adds that there's still little to go on. - Votes for Nerwen. Wants to see who will blink. 6-way tie! (Would have been 7 if Sally's vote for Nog counted.) - Explains that he wanted to try something completely different, and that "It probably serves us better than our reasoning as there is little or none of it - because there is nothing to go on - not only because of quietness but also because there are no wolf-co-operations either." And then he gets killed overNight. So, why might he have been killed? Option (A). The wolves thought he was the Seer because of correct guesses. It could be because of his suggestion to lynch Skip, who turned out to be a wolf. But as Nerwen said, this is unlikely unless Skip was a random Night 1 dream. At the end of Day 2 it seemed as if his greatest suspicions were of Boro, Pom and Nerwen. It looked as if he was the most suspicious of Boro out of those. But they could also have gone by correct guesses of innocence. If that's the case, then...actually he didn't seem to be too confident of anyone's innocence. Option (B). He was an active player, probably the most active one we had. Option (C). Killing Nog would cast doubt on someone else. That would most likely be the people Nog was suspicious of yesterDay. But there are some complications to this: wouldn't the wolves be gunning for the Seer? Option (D). Traceless kill. I don't think this is likely. So overall, I'd guess that it's more likely to be option (A). But it might make a difference whether or not the wolves are in contact. If someone has the time, could you work out the odds of that? I probably won't be back until an hour or so before the deadline. Here's hoping that activity picks up.