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Originally Posted by Coppermirror
But it might make a difference whether or not the wolves are in contact. If someone has the time, could you work out the odds of that?
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The odds of the two current wolves making contact on Night One were 2:11, but after that there's too many unknowns– whether they were able to hint to each other, whether their other guesses remained alive. Still, I'd say there's a fairly good chance they have by now. I don't think the missed kill on Night Two tells us anything either way, as it seems likely
Skipwolf never sent in a list at all.
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Originally Posted by Greenie
The trouble is, I agree with Nerwen and Copper that the possible scenarios for why the wolves would have gone for Nog look problematic. I just can't see the two wolves sitting down together and deciding to kill Nog, of all people. Like Copper said, shouldn't they be gunning for the Seer? Then again, if they don't know each other, gunning for the Seer would I guess be a deal harder, especially gunning for the same Seer. That, though, still doesn't explain why they both separately wanted to kill Nog.
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Something I should have thought of earlier:
Nog was pretty jumpy yesterDay, wasn't he? To a wolf, that tends to scream "gifted".