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Old 01-26-2013, 09:08 AM   #322
Coppermirror
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Volo as "Seer"

Day 1

#3 - his tasting banter could be interpreted as Seer-ish. Interestingly, in retrospect his last line there looks as if it could be him leaving a Cobbler-hint.
#72 - defends Kath and says "currently no other interpretation but troll feels based enough to me". It's quite emphasised, so could easily be taken as evidence left by a Seer if Kath is innocent.
#126 - questions how genuine Rikae is in response to Brin's opinion. Says "Ok, now I'm clearly looking more closely at Rikae"...and that there's "still no special genuine vibe" there. If Rikae is a wolf, the wolves might well have been worried about this post.
#132 - unsure about Nerwen, thinks Pom feels more genuine, and McCaber more naughty.
#137 - now wants to save McCaber and is willing to vote Nerwen to do it. This could be suspicious to wizzards if Nerwen is a wizzard, possibly, but the defence of McCaber probably wouldn't.
#139 - votes Nerwen, and makes bandwagon statements.
#143 - corrects some mistakes, and says that I didn't ring any alarm bells with him.

In conclusion, if Day 1 contains anything that worried them, they might have assumed that he was the Seer based on:
- defence of Kath (in which case she's innocent)
- suspicion of Rikae (in which case she's a wizzard)
- defence of McCaber (in which case he's innocent)
- vote and reasoning for voting Nerwen (in which case she's a wizzard)
- possibly, his opinion of me in #143

Now to Day 2 to check if any of those become more likely or there is anything new. They might have attempted to kill him the first Day and been blocked by the Insomniac Troll, or might not.

Day 2

#205 - mild suspicion against me, notes Nerwen bringing attention to McCaber but says it is nothing incriminating and later says that Nerwen remains ambiguous. He continues fairly enthusiastically with suspicions about Rikae, specifically talking about how she might have strategically encouraged suspicion against me.

So far he seems to be continuing the Rikae suspicions just as on Day 1. This doesn't look great for Rikae so far, but there's still more to read about. Going by the info up to #205, there's a possibility that he could have been killed to encourage a Rikae lynch...but then, wouldn't they have killed Rikae overNight if that's what they wanted? Volo was under extreme suspicion and not a bad prediction to be lynched toDay. But if Rikae is a wizzard and they thought Volo had dreamt of her, they would have little choice but to kill Volo ASAP even if it might implicate her.

Now for #261 and Volo's big suspicions list.

He doesn't have enough info on: Shasta, Sally.
Considers some degree of innocent, however mild: Greenie, Bane, Kath (although thinks a possible Cobbler), Morsul.
Unclear statement on: Brin, Inzil, Loslote.

Boro - thinks something doesn't fit and he resembles wolf-Boro.
Coppermirror - thinks that Pom might have genuinely tried to save me, thus making me more suspicious, and that Pom thought her vote was a safe one for her to make.
Gil - thinks he resembles his wolf-self, and that Boro and Sally defended him strongly. Ends up unsure and giving Gil benefit of doubt.
McCaber - has had some thoughts about but currently thinks he doesn't ring alarm bells. This could be seen as in line with the previous Day.
Morsul - thinks is genuine and unlikely to be a wizer.
Nerwen - waffles about her a bit. Seems to be backtracking overall, but "I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case" makes it sound odd.
Nogrod - is slightly wary of him.
Ozban - "I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness."
Rikae - "growing more wary" of her, thinking of as Pom 2.

#264 - votes Ozban as Morsul "feels innocent".

Conclusions: the most obvious thread there is suspicion of Rikae. They might have thought that Rikae was the first dream, possibly the second. But on Day 1, there were also two people whom he seemed to defend: Kath and McCaber. (I could say me too, but he wavered a bit oddly about me on Day 2 despite continuing to use Rikae's suspicions of me as evidence against her.) It's by no means conclusive but it does merit a look at Rikae, especially to check on how she reacts to these accusations.

So on Day 2, how does he treat Kath and McCaber? More neutrally, but still not with much suspicion. His line about McCaber could possibly be interpreted as dreaming of him the previous Night.

He doesn't seem to think Ozban is looking guilty, but votes for him anyway to save Morsul, whom he thinks is innocent. If Morsul really is innocent, and Volo was also correct about one of his earlier opinions (probably on Kath, McCaber or Rikae) then he might be interpreted as having dreamed of him.

It's most likely that they thought he was the Seer, but the possibility of it being a confusion tactic still remains. As for whether killing Volo might save anyone, the only one that comes to mind is Morsul. At the end of yesterDay, Sally and Nog appeared to be theorising about a Morsul-Volo wizard pack, given Volo's defence of Morsul. If Morsul is a wizer, killing Volo would be a quick way to knock that line of thought on the head. Even so...it's hard to guess how much danger the wizers would have felt in from Sally and Nog's discussion.

Since I was writing this up, I deliberately didn't look too carefully at other people's analysis of Volo, so I'll go ahead and look at those posts now.

Edit: cross-posted with an unknown but large amount of posts. Last one I'd read was #293. Also edited for formatting.

Last edited by Coppermirror; 01-26-2013 at 09:13 AM.
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