The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

Coppermirror · 01-29-2013, 10:23 PM

This is my analysis of Inzil and Kath so far, going up to about page 10. I'm getting a bit tired, so I just want to post what I have so far. After a little bit I'll come back and finish the rest and make my conclusions.

Inzil

Votes
Day 1: Pom
Day 2: Ozban
Day 3: Gil
Day 4: Gil

#6 - banter.

#14 - banter. Says it's those who aren't up to no good who we have to worry about.

#23 - disagrees with Morsul, who had talked about something Pom said as a suggestion, saying "I wouldn't call it a "suggestion". A standard Day 1 statement, more like". I think it's unlikely that both Morsul and Inzil would be wizards and chatting about Pom-wizard like this on the very first page.

#71 - Decides to stop banter for now. Thinks that Morsul's vote is a stretch but wasn't too bad for a Day 1 vote. Jokes with Rikae about suspecting/voting for each other.

#78 - doesn't like Gil's vote reasoning.

#105 - vote count so far, and comments on oddness of Pom's comment.

#127 - votes Pom. Was willing to give Gil a pass, and didn't feel keen on voting Nerwen. He was the first voter for Pom. Would a wizard be the first voter for her? Maybe, but it's more likely that they wouldn't.

#153 - wonders if the wizards were among the Pom voters or outside them or in both.

#160 - Wants to look more closely at Nog, and wants to look at the McCaber voters. He thinks that the first of these was Rikae, whose vote he thought looked fairly innocent.

#170 - Comments on Morsul's placement of Lottie as his top suspicion. Fairly noncommittal but thinks she could have avoided voting for a mate entirely. Then comments on Morsul's opinion that if Lottie is a wizard, Nog may be cleared, agreeing that if the two were mates she would surely have come up with others to suspect. Then he comments on Nerwen's Pom analysis.

#171 - Responds to Lottie, saying she's not his top suspect for the day.

#198 - Says that common sense means that I'm unlikely to be a wizard, as there's no reason for Pom to have voted that way otherwise. Decides to focus on those who might have tried to save Pom: Boro, Volo, Nog.

#208 - Recaps votes. Gives impressions of each person's vote.

People he things look good: me, Rikae, Lottie, Shasta-innocent.
Of Greenie-innocent, thought that she could look bandwagony but her reasoning was good.
Thought that Ozban-innocent looked bad.
Concludes that the person whose vote looks worst from a Pom-saving perspective is Nog.

#235 - wonders who to vote for. Likes Nog's explanation, doesn't want to vote Boro in the latter's absence, and thinks Volo's vote was the least suspicious of the three. Suspicious of Gil's vote. Could vote for Ozban, and thinks the Morsul vote looks rather fabricated. (Hmm. Makes me wonder if my conclusion that there couldn't be a Morsul-Inzil pack before was too hasty.)

#237 - Decides Gil is being too careless to be a wizard, and votes Ozban.

#273 - Wonders why Volo caught wizard attention.

#275 - Wonders if Volo was the blocked Day 1 target or if it was something from the previous Day that made him the wizards' choice.

#293 - Thinks that Seer-suspicion makes the most sense for Volo's death and that if they wanted to mess with our heads they must have had other options.

#313 - Thinks a wizard Rikae would not have made that confession, and that makes him wonder about Nerwen's quick vote. Then rolls eyes at seeing Morsul's vote.

#314 - considers Morsul's statement that the only way Rikae is innocent is if she's the purseholder with a target in mind. (Incidentally, if the wizards do think that at present, then maybe that's why she wasn't killed. Or - actually, no, it's more likely that they just thought the insomniac troll would be defending her and needed another target. Or that they were aiming for the insomniac troll.)

#318 - thinks Morsul's reason for voting Rikae is better than Nerwen's.

Kath

Votes
Day 1: n/a
Day 2: Morsul
Day 3: Morsul
Day 4: Sally

#5 - Banter. This was the wizard of Oz reference that caused her to be suspected by Morsul as a possible cobbler. It's very unlikely to be a sign left by a wizard for the cobbler to find.

#13 - Banter. Says wonders if Morsul is trying to distract us by talking more about trolls than wizards.

#223 - arrives.

- summarises previous Days. Might be worth people reading to see if they can get anything more from it than me.

In particular, she finds something Volo said odd, and comments on his playing style so far.

#232 - Decides she will look at the people who voted for me, but isn't sure how likely Boro or McCaber were to be wolves. Didn't like the "suspicion mongering" phrase from McCaber. Finds herself still worried about Volo.

#239 - votes Morsul, mostly for the "innocent McCab" comment, and notes that Lottie has spotted it too. (So I wonder, does this make a Kath-Lottie pack less likely?)

01-29-2013, 10:23 PM	#523
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	This is my analysis of Inzil and Kath so far, going up to about page 10. I'm getting a bit tired, so I just want to post what I have so far. After a little bit I'll come back and finish the rest and make my conclusions. Inzil Votes Day 1: Pom Day 2: Ozban Day 3: Gil Day 4: Gil #6 - banter. #14 - banter. Says it's those who aren't up to no good who we have to worry about. #23 - disagrees with Morsul, who had talked about something Pom said as a suggestion, saying "I wouldn't call it a "suggestion". A standard Day 1 statement, more like". I think it's unlikely that both Morsul and Inzil would be wizards and chatting about Pom-wizard like this on the very first page. #71 - Decides to stop banter for now. Thinks that Morsul's vote is a stretch but wasn't too bad for a Day 1 vote. Jokes with Rikae about suspecting/voting for each other. #78 - doesn't like Gil's vote reasoning. #105 - vote count so far, and comments on oddness of Pom's comment. #127 - votes Pom. Was willing to give Gil a pass, and didn't feel keen on voting Nerwen. He was the first voter for Pom. Would a wizard be the first voter for her? Maybe, but it's more likely that they wouldn't. #153 - wonders if the wizards were among the Pom voters or outside them or in both. #160 - Wants to look more closely at Nog, and wants to look at the McCaber voters. He thinks that the first of these was Rikae, whose vote he thought looked fairly innocent. #170 - Comments on Morsul's placement of Lottie as his top suspicion. Fairly noncommittal but thinks she could have avoided voting for a mate entirely. Then comments on Morsul's opinion that if Lottie is a wizard, Nog may be cleared, agreeing that if the two were mates she would surely have come up with others to suspect. Then he comments on Nerwen's Pom analysis. #171 - Responds to Lottie, saying she's not his top suspect for the day. #198 - Says that common sense means that I'm unlikely to be a wizard, as there's no reason for Pom to have voted that way otherwise. Decides to focus on those who might have tried to save Pom: Boro, Volo, Nog. #208 - Recaps votes. Gives impressions of each person's vote. People he things look good: me, Rikae, Lottie, Shasta-innocent. Of Greenie-innocent, thought that she could look bandwagony but her reasoning was good. Thought that Ozban-innocent looked bad. Concludes that the person whose vote looks worst from a Pom-saving perspective is Nog. #235 - wonders who to vote for. Likes Nog's explanation, doesn't want to vote Boro in the latter's absence, and thinks Volo's vote was the least suspicious of the three. Suspicious of Gil's vote. Could vote for Ozban, and thinks the Morsul vote looks rather fabricated. (Hmm. Makes me wonder if my conclusion that there couldn't be a Morsul-Inzil pack before was too hasty.) #237 - Decides Gil is being too careless to be a wizard, and votes Ozban. #273 - Wonders why Volo caught wizard attention. #275 - Wonders if Volo was the blocked Day 1 target or if it was something from the previous Day that made him the wizards' choice. #293 - Thinks that Seer-suspicion makes the most sense for Volo's death and that if they wanted to mess with our heads they must have had other options. #313 - Thinks a wizard Rikae would not have made that confession, and that makes him wonder about Nerwen's quick vote. Then rolls eyes at seeing Morsul's vote. #314 - considers Morsul's statement that the only way Rikae is innocent is if she's the purseholder with a target in mind. (Incidentally, if the wizards do think that at present, then maybe that's why she wasn't killed. Or - actually, no, it's more likely that they just thought the insomniac troll would be defending her and needed another target. Or that they were aiming for the insomniac troll.) #318 - thinks Morsul's reason for voting Rikae is better than Nerwen's. Kath Votes Day 1: n/a Day 2: Morsul Day 3: Morsul Day 4: Sally #5 - Banter. This was the wizard of Oz reference that caused her to be suspected by Morsul as a possible cobbler. It's very unlikely to be a sign left by a wizard for the cobbler to find. #13 - Banter. Says wonders if Morsul is trying to distract us by talking more about trolls than wizards. #223 - arrives. - summarises previous Days. Might be worth people reading to see if they can get anything more from it than me. In particular, she finds something Volo said odd, and comments on his playing style so far. #232 - Decides she will look at the people who voted for me, but isn't sure how likely Boro or McCaber were to be wolves. Didn't like the "suspicion mongering" phrase from McCaber. Finds herself still worried about Volo. #239 - votes Morsul, mostly for the "innocent McCab" comment, and notes that Lottie has spotted it too. (So I wonder, does this make a Kath-Lottie pack less likely?)