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Old 06-23-2013, 03:24 PM   #46
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Scenarios: Best Case and Worst Case
MESPN Football Round Table

We here at MESPN asked some of our Football round table contributors to come up with best and worst-case scenarios for each team in the field. In the best-case scenarios the rule-of-thumb for the playoffs is that a squad is allowed to pull one reasonable upset, one other team is allowed to pull an upset (allowing them to face the weaker squad), and the group opposite them is allowed to have one squad finish out of position (again, allowing for a weaker opponent). Essentially this guarantees the best-case somewhat probable scenario.

And just because one squad has a higher “BEST” does not mean that squad is superior head-to-head. It may just indicate a combination of a tough group and a likely tough playoff draw.

With worst-case it’s a bit more art than science, as technically anyone can be left out in the cold after the group stage. But to add a bit of diversity in answers, we’re going with more conventional logic and not assuming multiple upsets.

So anyway, not true best/worsts here, but rather with likelihood factored in.

GROUP A

Armenelos
BEST- runner up
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Barrow-Downs
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Havens
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Valimar
BEST- runner up
WORST- eliminated in-group

Any team from group A can make the playoffs, but it won’t be easy for anyone. Once there they’ll be meeting a Group H team, which means it’s likely a matchup they won’t be entirely overmatched in. The key is the following round, where they will meet whichever squad emerges from the B-G matchup. If it’s AC Beleriand, Angband or TIG then obviously it’ll be a heck of a challenge, but if there’s an upset inside one of those groups that yields an Angfauglith vs Gondolin matchup or something like that, while those teams aren’t pushovers they are generally preferable to playing Feanor or Morgoth.

Once in the semis, they can’t count on a Cinderella to be waiting for them, so they’ll need to really be on it to advance, and it’s the same story in the finals. We rated Valimar and Armenelos as runner-up because we think three games in a row against Angband/Real/AC/etc. is too much to expect (not that they can’t- it’s just not probable). We can’t just take every team with enough talent to win a title and declare their best scenario as “champ”- we must separate them somehow.

GROUP B

AC Beleriand
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

Inter Beleriand
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Dwarves United
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Gondolin
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

AC Bel is one of the few teams we put in the playoffs under worst-case. The group isn’t easy, but as no one on the panel could leave them lower than 2nd we declared them a “lock” to advance. We almost moved everyone in the group back a spot in the best-case due to the likelihood of facing a strong team in the first round of the playoffs, but whether they finish 1st or 2nd in-group they will have a winnable quarterfinal match if they can but get through the first game.

It’s true that Valimar, Armenelos, or Anduin are likely strong opponents there, but those squads aren’t known for playing in a scary and exploitive style, if you follow. If a team is having some weakness at the back someone like FC Valinor will lick their lips and try to bury them, whereas Valimar and Armenelos are more controlled and defensive and thus the game has a higher probability of remaining tight, which gives teams with fine attacks (like Gondolin and Inter) a puncher’s chance.

The lowest best-case in the group is Dwarves United on account of their lack of scoring, but it’s still impressive that the worst team can make the quarters. Their defensive talents and focus is good enough (it proved it last year) to advance out of the group, and they would have a shot at frustrating a team like Angband or Angfauglith and forcing PKs.

GROUP C

Doriath
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

Hithlum
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

Shire-Bree United
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Real Valinor
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

As you can see we ran into some trouble here, as Hithlum and Real have both come out as “locks” to make the playoffs, which should technically keep Doriath and Shire-Bree from having a best-case scenario. Yes, it’s clear there are flaws in our system here- a lot of grey area of overlap.

We don’t see much difference between Doriath and Shire-Bree, but felt that SBree’s defensive tools gave them a slight chance of upsetting the team they face from Group F, such as attack-heavy Nargothrond. And doubtless you noticed that there are two potential champs in this group- a rare feature indeed (shared only by Group G).

Between Hithlum and Real, it is tough to say who has the better odds. Real is stronger defensively, but Hithlum’s firepower is possibly the best in the tournament. In the end it could very well come down to head-to-head for determining who wins the group.

GROUP D

Barad-Dur
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Gondor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Isengard
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

FC Valinor
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

It’s tough indeed to see FC getting ousted before the playoffs, but once in the playoffs they could certainly run into trouble, such as a matchup with Eriador. But as one of the best teams in the tournament and no one team clearly better than the rest, they could certainly string together victories to win a title (as they appeared to be on their way to last year).

Isengard would be doing well indeed to make it out of this group, but more realistically it’s between Barad-Dur and Gondor. Either would have a chance of winning their first round match (Barad-Dur looks well-equipped to handle most of Group E while Gondor appears built well to attempt an upset of Group E’s strongest squad, Eriador).

Once in the quarters Gondor could not count on another upset, and the teams they’d possibly face there (Tirion, Real, etc.) would likely be favored. Barad-Dur however has dual dragon-stoppers should they end up against Nargothrond, and they couldn’t hold Sauron scoreless, and the Blue Wizards might give them a slightly better shot than Gondor against Tirion.

GROUP E

Erebor
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Eriador
BEST- runner-up
WORST- eliminated in-group

Misty Mts
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Wilderland
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

With their dependability, cohesion and talent it seems odd not putting “champ” for Eriador’s best, but we felt that it was too much to expect them to win too many games 1-0, as shutting out elite offenses is darn tough, while winning three games 2-1 against teams with elite defenses might be too much to hope for, and we worry a bit about Eriador’s offensive punch against the best squads.

Erebor, Misty and Wilderland felt slightly similar, all with the ability to play a bruising style, and with big powerful scorers up front capable of powering the team to an upset win. In the end we only went quarterfinals for Misty and Wilderland, because while Durin’s Bane and Scatha might prove tough matchups for the defenses of Nargothrond or Tirion, the quick offenses of Narg & Tirion might also prove problematic, while Hithlum and Real both have big stoppers (Balrog#5, Tilion, Nahar). But we put Erebor through to the semis for best-case because frankly they proved it last year.

GROUP F

Minas Tirith
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

Nargothrond
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Sea
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in-group

Tirion
BEST- runner-up
WORST- eliminated in-group

The major concern for advancement here is the chance of facing Turin and Hithlum or defending champ Real in the first round of the playoffs. We didn’t give Minas Tirith a chance to advance in the playoffs because we thought it was too much to expect them to beat out all of these three other teams for first in the group, and finishing second they’d pretty well be guaranteed a team they don’t match up against well.

The other three we said might win the group, thus finishing first it’s possible one of the Group C heavies will be bumped to third leaving an easier matchup for the Group F winner. We passed all three through the quarters either because a team was likely to be there that they matched up well against, or simply because we believed in a one-game scenario they could pull an upset anyway.

Tirion we advanced one spot beyond Nargothrond on account of their defense. They aren’t overly large and diverse, but with Caranthir, Amrod and Amras back there in front of Finarfin they would match up decently against squads that don’t feature a dragon or similar large striker. The Sea on the other hand we felt had the teeth on defense to slow anyone down, and then good enough scorers backed by one of the most solid midfields around, thus they can win it all.

GROUP G

Angband
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in group

Angfauglith
BEST- seminfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Imladris
BEST- eliminated in group
WORST- eliminated in group

Tol-In-Gaurhoth
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in group

This was a tough group to handicap. We were tempted to say that Angband or TIG’s worst would be the first round of the playoffs, but Angfauglith just seemed too dangerous. If Gothmog shoots lights out and the Balrogs at the back play smart and Ungoliant has a great effort, they could certainly upset Angband or TIG.

As far as guaranteeing Imladris for an early exit, it sort of went hand in hand. The other three squads are just all too scary to count on Imladris pulling out a victory more than once, particularly playing away from home (all three other squads will feel at home in the two host stadiums- Anfauglith and Tol In Gaurhoth).

Once out of the group, their playoff fortunes may depend on where they finish and where the Group B teams finish. If at all possible they probably want to avoid a contest with AC Beleriand to start the playoffs. Angband and TIG are both capable of winning that game if they play their very best and AC doesn’t, but no one ever bets on Feanor exiting before the quarterfinals. If they avoid that matchup however, suddenly their chances of a run go up.

GROUP H

Anduin
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Arnor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Mordor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Rohan
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in group

We felt that any of these teams was capable of a one-time upset of one of the other four, thus anyone has a risk of being left in groups. Once in the playoffs we didn’t like the way Rohan matched up with the likely Group A winners. Mordor seems ill-suited to face the power and majesty of Valimar (they’d probably arouse their righteous anger), but we give them a puncher’s chance against Armenelos, as the Nazgul would have a slight chance of creeping the mortals off their game, and Shelob might be tough to contest headers with.

We gave Arnor the quarters as best-case as well. Armenelos will play a style familiar to them, but do it better than Arnor- but in a single game anything can happen (unless the disparity is huge of course). And against Valimar, as we saw a couple years ago, the Arnorians know how to keep the Valar dispassionate.

For Anduin we decided to hop them an extra round, as they have the weapons to better take on their first round opponents, and have a better shot at upsetting a heavy-hitter should they meet them in the quarters. The speed and range of Felarof at the back alongside Fram, a natural beast-stopper, gives them better legs to stand on.

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Contributors- Philip McPhantom (MESPN lead football coordinator), Ruharg the Red (Monster Magazine lead sports editor), Ar-Tar-Aradil (Westernesse Weekly sports writer, NAAF president), Adanel (Football wise-woman for Dor-Lomin Athletic Digest), Finwanoro (Football columnist for The Tirion Times and MESPN)
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