[Boromir88]

Our tireless team of statisticians, analysts and experts always attempt to find new ways to break down the stats, analyze and then come up with a projection. For 2013 the new wave hitting TTN is "Wins Above Replacement" (or "WAR" for short).

Over the past several Arda Cups we've looked at total production (position-by-position) in order to come up with the averages at each position. Then we looked at the player production to determine the value of that player.

For example, Ar-Pharazon's WAR is +4.9, which means if we were to theoretically replace an average FW with Ar-Pharazon on the roster, than that team would have won almost 5 more games. Or on the flipside Fatty Lumpkin's -1.7 WAR, means replace an average DF with Fatty Lumpkin and that team would lose almost 2 more games.

Some more important notes: Over the years many players have changed positions, and many others are making either their tournament debut or debut at a new position. So there simply might be less data and history to look at and compare. Ar-Pharazon's WAR is quite high because his entire career he has been a FW (but it also means he's been an extremely good FW). Where someone like Elros has spent years as a GK or MF. Since Elros is a mid-fielder this year, we took his previous tournaments as as a MF and didn't factor in the years he was a GK.

GROUP A

Armenelos
FRIENDLIES:
-Nargothrond (D3-3)
-AC Beleriand (L1-2)

Probably not the friendly results Armenelos was hoping to have but nothing to be alarmed or discouraged about. A draw with a playoff quality team and 1-goal loss to a serious title contender this year.

Tar-Atanamir is a quality keeper and while his best year was clearly when Armenelos won the title in 2009, and there was a drop in his numbers after 2009, the drop wasn't too severe and it has levelled off. Manwe is definitely the best GK in the group, but the other pair of safe hands is Tar-Atanamir.

The most troublesome part for Armenelos is their defense. Tar Telperien has a high WAR (+3.9) but most of that comes from excellent 2008 and 2009 campaigns. Her drop in production coincided with the departures of Ar-Zimrathon and Tar-Cirytan from the defense, which I think just goes to prove Armenelos defensive strength comes from the combined team effort and cohesion, not individual stars. When paired with an average and relatively inexperienced defender, Tar Palantir (+0.2) and a very poor Tar-Calmacil (-0.8), the defense will struggle. On the positive side the other teams in this group only have 1 legitimate scoring threat each, and so the team defense should be good enough against the teams in this group. But when facing a team with multiple weapons, I think you'll see the same results as the friendlies...Armenelos vulnerable to giving up goals.

Armenelos' greatest advantage comes in the FWs and attacking MFs. I've already discussed Ar Pharazon in the opening, but it's worth mentioning even when he's handicapped on a roster that is defensively oriented he produced goals and won games. The king is a pro and he has won many games off his golden boots for his homeland. Then not to mention Ar Adunakhor who is a consisten complimentary player and Elros who is historically a better goalie, but is also a proven field commander in making sure his scorers upfront get quality passes. It's worth mentioning Tar Ancalimon and Tar Miriel as well. Because as primary scorers they are completely outclassed, but they fit nicely into the supportive role and 4th and 5th scoring threat on Armenelos.

Barrow-Downs
FRIENDLIES:
-Shire Bree Utd (L1-2)
-Eriador (L0-3)

Low budget aside, the team is trying out way too many players in new positions, leaving way too many question marks before the tournament. It's risky just to have 1 unknown going into group play. Don't get me wrong there is talent on the team. GwathWight's numbers as a defender (albeit is only based on 2 years) are solid (+0.9). But with the unknowns at the back (Alien and the Barrow-wight) plus the rest which is quite frankly garbage, (Lumpkin's -1.7, River Woman -0.6) I don't see how their defense can hold up.

At the front Bombadil is always capable of going off on a highlight performance but his focus is way too fleeting to be relied upon from match-to-match.

The Havens
FRIENDLIES:
-Inter Beleriand (D3-3)
-Tol In Gaurhoth (L1-2)

The other team that might have hoped for better results in the friendlies, but nothing to be alarmed about. They played good competition and statistically came out similar to Armenelos.

Their defense is conventional, they'll play you straight up but ultimately it is beatable. Ar Zimrathon is their best defender (+0.7) but that is exclusively from 2009 as Ar Zimrathon's numbers have evened out over the other seasons. Their defense relies more on their possession game (which they are definitely very good at).

The trouble with The Haven's midfield is, yes they are experts in the quick passing game and controlling possession. But they struggle turning that possession advantage into goals. Their midfielders all have a negative WAR (excluding Falastur...but he's basically the epitome of average with a +0.1) because they just don't produce goals. Cirdan's height is an advantage when going up against orcs...but he will get no such advantage with the defenses he'll be facing in this group. It should be relatively easy for Armenelos and Valimar to neutralize Cirdan.

I guess that's why they have Earendil, because he is the lad that will produce goals. And with the Havens passing game he'll definitely get a lot of opportunities, but he's just not enough. Earendil's best position is in the MF and when he players like Tilion and Eonwe around him in 2008, or Gil Galad and Glorfindel in 2009. As an attacking mid-fielder his WAR is great (2 years as MF, +1.8)...as a FW it's good, but not anything outstanding (3 years as a FW, +1.1).

Valimar
FRIENDLIES:
-The Sea (L0-1)
-Real Valinor (L1-3)

Even if Valinor played a more rigorous friendly schedule than the rest of the teams in the group, there is some reason for concern. To be fair, The Sea and Real Valinor are legit title contenders this year, but I think the friendly results just goes to show that Valimar is not. Question is, are they still good enough to make it out of this group? Yes.

Defensively they've got the talent to win it. Also, defensively they're all in their proper positions. Ever since Manwe swapped positions with Namo it was a most wise decision by the Valar. With the entire field in front of him, Manwe is much better at setting up his defensive alignments, while Namo is better at noticing where a team is planning to build their attack seconds before they're actually able to do it. But not just those two, the other defenders are in their most natural and comfortable positions which only helps them succeed more.

Similar to The Havens, the real problems come in the mid-field. Another team that loves to control possession (and are experts at doing so) in the mid-field, but again it's a mid-field that just doesn't produce the goals. Ingwe's bounced around from being a DF, to a GK, to a MF. He'll now have to be the elf who tries to get some pressure off Arien, but it's unknown whether he's capable of that. And as much as I praised Manwe for positioning his defenders for success...everyone in the MF just seems out of position. Irmo and Ilmare should be swapped. Statistics show Ilmare is better at feeding balls to the FWs than Irmo.

So, it will come down to how effective Arien can be in this situation. It won't be so much Manwe's conservative style that hold's Arien back. I think it will be lack of another viable threat. I mean you're going to excel when you're with the likes of Miriel and Nerdanel. But even in 2010 Arien had Varda and Eonwe as a supporting cast...Who does she have here...Ingwe? Irmo?

With that being said, since The Havens and Valimar appear very similar, and they appear to have the same strengths and weaknesses, I'll give the slight favor to Valimar based on a tougher defense.

Projected Standings:
1. Armenelos
2. Valimar
3. The Havens
4. Barrow-Downs