[Boromir88]

GROUP B

AC Beleriand
FRIENDLIES:
-Anfauglith (W2-1)
-Armenelos (W2-1)

Two wins against playoff caliber teams and they should be able to handle this group comfortably. An interesting fact, Feanor's teams have never been eliminated before the quarterfinals. Even in 2011 when he was quite limitted playing with 3rd Age teammates in Galadriel's conservative style, Feanor saw Lothlorien into the quarter-finals. I suppose there has to be a first time for everything, but this team has top class at all the key positions.

Marach's a decent GK, it's rightfully asked whether he is an Arda Cup winning one though. Last year he was clearly the week point of a very good defense, led by Fingolfin who has quickly risen as a top notch defender. Rochallor and Imlach are in their proper positions and there is no loss when in the offseason AC Beleriand exchanged Ecthelion for a Balrog.

Their loss is going to be in the MF, with the hopes Angrod and Aegnor can make up Beren's production. History and WAR tells us they can not (Beren's +1.9) Angrod and Aegnor combined (-0.5). Now it's true those two have not played with FWs as great of a combo as Feanor and Eol before and it's also true Beren's best year was last year...playing with Feanor and Eol. But still, even when Beren's had to carry the offense on his shoulder (2010 for Gelion) he was out producing Angrod and Aegnor combined.

This isn't going to hurt AC Beleriand making it out of Group B, but it will hurt them in the playoffs unless the brothers can suddenly find the skill to make up for Beren's departure.

Inter Beleriand
FRIENDLIES:
-Havens (D3-3)
-Doriath (W1-0)

We're not sure why the other networks seem so assure of Inter Beleriand's advancement as they quickly dismiss Dwarves United and don't give too much credit to Gondolin. This team is extremely susceptible in the back.

Turgon is naturally a leader of a defense, but as a GK, he really leaves a lot to be desired. He's great at setting up walls and arranging the defense in front of him, when the opponents have set pieces (free kicks, or corner kicks). However, he simply doesn't pocess the reaction of say Galadriel or Carcharoth. And you really need to have that quick reaction skill, particularly when facing the FWs Inter Beleriand will be up against in this group.

Defensively they're even more shaky. Luthien is an adequate DF (but still only a WAR o +0.4 at that position). Luthien is not a great matchup against big powerful FWs. (2008 against Ar-Pharazon, 2009 against TIG, and 2010 against Ancalagon) Luthien was eventually worn down by all of them as her team was eliminated. Maeglin, Tuor, Feanor and Eol are probably not going to viciously bang up Luthien like all those other FWs mentioned, but they will definitely use their size and power to wear her down.

The rest of the defense is in even worse shape. The WAR stat that gives someone the most negative points is a red card. When you're sent off the field, you are really handicapping your team. Yellow cards aren't too much of a negative, because sometimes you need that aggressive, hard play to stop a scoring threat. Caranthir and Morgoth have, for example, have mastered the skil of knowing when to be aggressive and take a yellow, and when to pull back knowing they can't be sent off the field. Gorlim hasn't and is just a morale killer.

A lot is going to depend on Beren who had his break out season last year. That was with Feanor and Eol (+9.8 and +5.4 respectively) however. Maedhros and Fingon are good, but they're several notches below (+4.9 and +3.1). But they should all be able to complement eachother well. It'll be a tough 3-way battle for 2nd.

Dwarves United
FRIENDLIES:
-Wilderland (D0-0)
-Rohan (W1-0)

Now it seems to me that no one is giving Dwarves United much of a chance. They forget defensively this team just has it all. It's true last year they probably benefitted from a group of 3rd Age heroes and now they'll be up against sturdier competition. But you also can't forget Celebrimbor, Aule and Galadriel are all legends of the 1st Age too...with Durin the Deathless and Azaghal in support as well. We'll agree with TENT too that Fili and Kili are quality defensive mid-fielders, the brothers are intune with eachother and they're a good pair playing together.

Having said that, there is no denying what the rest of the medias all say...their offensive players can't score goals. Even with the high-powered Mirkwood offense from '08 to '09, Legolas was below average (-0.2)...and this is with Scatha and Thranduil as teammates! When factoring in the other tournaments -0.9 (excludes 2011 because he was a MF...with the aid of Feanor and Boromir II). Legolas is a one tool threat, and that is long distance projectiles. One of his trademark snipes going in might be all that is needed however, because the only team we'd place money on scoring on Dwarves United is AC Beleriand.

Gondolin
FRIENDLIES:
-Tirion (L0-2)
-Hithlum (D2-2)

Played 2 playoff quality teams in the friendlies, the 0-2 loss to Tirion is troubling but draw with Hithlum makes up for some of the troubled thoughts.

Rog had one fantastic year at GK (2010)...take out that year and he's well...bad, to put it kindly. So, understandably everyone is right in saying Rog greatly benefitted from playing with Ulmo and his loyal vassals shut-down defense in 2010. But as mentioned earlier, Turgon for Inter Beleriand is nothing to brag about either.

We keep catching ourselves comparing Gondolin and Inter Beleriand because they are very similar in team make-up. Inter Beleriand might be slightly more athletic defensively, but Gondolin plays smarter. They don't have a player that runs the risk of being red-carded, like Gorlim...so in TTN's mind, this negates whatever advantage Inter has with Luthien.

At the MF, history and productions shows Duilin and Idril are in their most natural positions. Idril and Duilin are great at getting the balls to their FWs (and unlike Angrod and Aegnor for AC Bel), they actually make up for Beren's production, combined WAR +2.5

Then at the front Maeglin and Tuor are comparable to Maedhros and Fingon. Maeglin's playoff pedigree is better as the "Sharp-Boot" is just clutch under the playoff lights (but he's sometimes not present in the group rounds). Tuor is great at using his height. Maeglin and Idril are good at attracting the attention of the better defenders (Fingolfin, Luthien, Celebrimbor), so it should leave Tuor good chances on some of the more dimunitive defenders (the dwarves, Gorlim...etc)

Projected Standings:
1. AC Beleriand
2. Gondolin
3. Inter Beleriand
4. Dwarves United