[Boromir88]

GROUP C

Doriath
FRIENDLIES:
-Tol In Gaurhoth (L0-3)
-Inter Beleriand (L0-1)

Doriath is in for a cruel awakening this year. It's not that they don't have good talent, but they just lack the depth and stamina in too many positions. And the fact they didn't score a goal in the friendlies (while surrending 4) says all you need to know about Doriath this year.

Dior is a capable GK (+0.8)...even behind a weak defense. Melian will definitely help keep pressure off Dior, but the other 3 defenders are bad (combined -3.1).

The MF is also weak...Thingol is an ok passer but not much of a goal-scorer. Then the rest of the MF...Daeron? Saeros? They've done virtually nothing and it's far too easy for opponents to get under Saeros' skin.

Then Mablung, who is also just..."eh." He's nothing that will catch your attention with how dazzling the attacks of Hithlum and Real Valinor will be. Sure he got a hat-trick last year against Nargothrond, but he did absolutely nothing else in all the rest of Doriath's games (including friendlies) last year.

Hithlum
FRIENDLIES:
-Angband (D2-2)
-Gondolin (D2-2)

They were probably hoping (and if they are expected to contend for the cup) to beat Gondolin. But scoring 2 goals against Angband is a positive. And both of them are definitely playoff caliber teams.

Huor is needing this year to bounce back after a horrid 2011. From 2008-2010, he was a dependable, championship GK (silver-medalist, quarter finalist, and champion in that 3 year span)...then 2011 just a nightmare, and it might have been he didn't feel comfortable in Anfauglith in that year. Returning in 2013 and playing with family might just be what Huor needs to have a bounceback year.

A lot of problems still with the defense, but the Balrog is in his natural position. Galdor and Gundor are not shut-down defenders, but whatever the case they have experience as defenders and history shows they are an improvement over Gethron and Grithnir. It's one of those defenses that is just good enough to get some key stops and move the ball quickly upfront to their amazing talent of scorers.

I don't need to say much about the quality of the quartet of attackers other than: Turin (+9.1), Hurin (+7.8) Beleg (+4.5) and Hador (+1.4). TTN will call it the most prolific offense in 2013. If Real Valinor still had Arien, it would be debatable.

Shire-Bree United
FRIENDLIES:
-Barrow Downs (W2-1)
-Anduin (D1-1)

Their friendly opponents don't compare in strength when looking at the other teams in the group. But you can't say anything bad about the results of winning the Barrow-Downs and drawing Anduin.

Shire-Bree has moved from a strong attacking team to a defensively oriented one. Their defense is under-rated because they've got some legs at their downstairs. What we mean is, Shadowfax, Gildor, and a Nazgul they can all run and won't tire out. Which they'll certainly need in this group, as their defenders will have to do a lot of chasing because...

Shire-Bree's midfield is quite poor. Gandalf and another Nazgul are going to be more focused on the offense, and it leaves Ferny, Bandobras, and Butterbur to try to get the ball away from Turin, Hurin, Beleg and Miriel, Nerdanel, Orome? Heh...riiight.

Their offense isn't too bad (we'll certainly put it more dangerous than Doriath's), but it is a few steps backwards from where they were at last year. Gandalf is better suited as a defender, but seeing as they needed a lot of help revamping their offense, he's needed most in the mid-field. Also, if Gandalf ever really had a place he could call "home," it would be here, in the Shire. Khamul's skills are better suited for a MF because he is very good from set pieces and delivering crosses to past teammates like the Witch-King or Sauron. As the lone striker he could be out of position, but with Nazgul #6 in the MF they should be intune to eachother's minds.

Real Valinor
FRIENDLIES:
-FC Valinor (D2-2)
-Valimar (W3-1)

A tough friendly schedule that they handled quite well this looks like a team ready for the playoffs already. In all groups you would put them as one of the favorites to advance, but they won't repeat as champions. They've simply lost too much on defense with Caranthir leaving, and then on offense with Arien.

Tulkas had quite an awful performance in last year's group play (allowing 5 goals in 3 games), but then he just shut it down in the playoffs (allowing only 2 in 4 games, and those 2 were against AC Beleriand). So, we'll have to see if he can be inspired to give the same effort in the group round.

Tilion is better when he's in the MF. A lot usually depends on his mood, but when he's in the right one he can put together an impressive string of games scoring several goals. Then he's prone to disappearing for a few games when he's in a bad mood. As a defender you can't afford to be off your game, I mean this is the Arda Cup! It's why Real Valinor will miss Caranthir the most. We hate to keep beating on this point, because Caranthir isn't the best defender, but he's a strong one, aggressive, and what you like most is he gives max effort all the time. Tilion's effort tends to come and go.

The MF is the weakest part of the team, their job isn't going to be much more than get the ball, and don't keep it for long, pass it up to the FWs as quickly as possible. Which they should be able to do, at least in this group and their FWs are extremely good at holding the ball in the attacking third and putting opposing defenses under constant stress.

As mentioned, Nerdanel, Miriel, and Orome are not only great goal-scorers, but they're very good at holding onto the ball, constantly makes the defenses work. Defenses will need a lot of stamina when facing this team. The issue is it looks like a team that is vulnerable on the counter...because when a defenses can finally steal the ball away, with the small 3-person midfield and moodiness of Tilion it's a recipe for quick counter attacks.

Projected Standings
1. Hithlum
2. Real Valinor
3. Shire-Bree
4. Doriath

GROUP D

Barad-Dur
FRIENDLIES:
-Arnor (D0-0)
-Misty Mountains (W2-1)

It's interesting how Barad-Dur's 2 friendly opponents are actually quite similar (in terms of gameplay) to 2 of their group opponents...Gondor and Isengard. Like Arnor, Gondor is not going to make mistakes and Isengard relies on a mix of cunning and brute strength. We were rather disappointed with Barad-Dur's friendly performance. I beating the Misty Mts is not bad, but neither Arnor nor Misty Mts look like teams that can go on a deep run in the playoffs.

Grishnakh is making his debut at goalie and so far he has performed well as his long limbs gives the orc good goal coverage. Alatar and Pallando are good improvements to their weak defense last year (the Blue Wizards with a +1.6 WAR...each).

The MF is very crafty with a Numenorean, some pirates, and the agile Beruthiel. The Queen of Cats history shows that she knows well the tactics and secrets of breaking down Gondor, which Sauron will most surely use to his advantage.

Sauron is not a pure "goal-scorer," that is he's not a FW like Turin, Feanor, Miriel, Ar Pharazon...etc their jobs are to score goals and they all do it well. Sauron is more a premiere passer who can put it in goal on occassion. History reveals in 5 Arda Cups (and total of 25 games played) Sauron only has 15 goals, but he's got 19 assists. Sauron loves drawing up set pieces and deceiving defenses on free kicks...so he'll probably try to target the tall form of Castamir in those situations.

Gondor
FRIENDLIES:
-Mordor (W3-1)
-Minas Tirith (D2-2)

Like Barad-Dur dind't have a difficult friendly schedule, but also there were no alarming losses.

Gondor is more vulnerable at the back than Barad-Dur, and maybe even more vulnerable than Isengard. Imrahil is coming in as an unknown factor making his debut at GK. And the three defenders don't offer much to get you excited about their ability to shut down a team. I mean, they surrendered 3 goals to Mordor and Minas Tirith, which means they'll likely give up goals to Barad-Dur and Isengard, not to even mention FC Valinor.

The key to the team will be the mid-field, they are very good at holding possession, but unlike other teams we mentioned in our guides, they're also good at turning that possession into goals. Eldacar is not flashing, but he is consistant and it's difficult for any team to keep him off the stat sheet. And Anarion, well he's just seemed to hit a new vigor and life to to his game after not really doing much from '08-'11.

Isengard
FRIENDLIES:
-Rohan (L1-2)
-Wilderland (L1-2)

Not embarrassing defeats, but defeats nonetheless, and to teams who don't seem like favorites to make the playoffs, and if they do, are probably going out in the 1st round anyways. So, that should really tell you the quality of Isengard this year. They could rattle the cages of Barad-Dur and Gondor for sure, and play spoiler their chances of going through are very small.

The Ent defenders are deadly when they're worked up in a rage (which they might get to when playing Barad-Dur). And it's not that they're slow, but they really don't change direction well. Against Gondor it shouldn't be a problem, because their attack is more methodical and through the center. But crikey, Celegrom and Curufin are going to be able to run circles around this team...with Treebeards WAR at -1.5, and it only gets worse from there...

Saruman's bounceback began in 2010 then he had an even better 2011 season. With support from Wormtongue and a Nazgul, their MF has some bite to it and should be able to hold their own against Barad-Dur's and Gondor's midfield. Their deeper midfielders (Lurtz, Wulf and Lugdush) are seriously going to have to help out the defense though.

Then we get to Quickbeam, who played FW in 2009 (went goalless in 3 games) and last year (1 goal in 3 games). If we combine his two years as an attacking MF...in a ground total of 12 games...Quickbeam's production is 2+2. That's atrocious. The Ent's only threat is on set pieces when Isengard can target him for a header, he's got absolutely no close-control or ability to hold the ball upfront. And considering FC Valinor has an eagle, and Barad-Dur has two fellbeasts, those defenses should be able to contain Quickbeam when Isengard tries to target him for a header.

FC Valinor
FRIENDLIES:
-Real Valinor (D2-2)
-The Sea (D0-0)

If they don't confidantly clear this group, then there is some serious unforeseen flaw in this team...I'm not going to go into too much detail, but here is the deal...

The best GK in the group, easily is Huan.

The best defense in the group, FC Valinor...easily. Eonwe is unknown but joined by Maglor, Indis, and Thorondor it's no question. Thorondor is in a more suitable position this year, he's not meant to be a leader on defense. Even if Eonwe is an unknown factor, what is not questionable is his leadership ability.

Best MF is slightly closer/more debatable but Yavanna and Argon excelled last year. Gondor's might be better as a unit and they don't make mistakes, but athletically FC Valinor's is superior.

Best FWs...no question Celegorm and Curufin.

The only question is whether this team will care to give a full effort, but even just going half-heartedly going through the motions there's no reason they shouldn't dominate this group.

Projected Standings
1. FC Valinor
2. Barad-Dur
3. Gondor
4. Isengard