Laconic Loreman
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 7,521
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GROUP G
Angband
FRIENDLIES:
-Hithlum (D2-2)
-Tirion (D1-1)
Angband's got skilled players at key positions, so lets start with Carcharoth. Carcharoth's a solid goalie, the wolf had one terrible season (2010) when Thangorodrim was kept out of the playoffs. However, I attribute this to Thangorodrim's hyper-aggressive constant attack approach often left Carcharoth alone and vulnerable. The wolf will take bad angles and is prone to making poor decisions but its reaction and athleticism is great, and can make up for those poor decisions (most of the time). When protected by Morgoth's more defense-first scheme, the wolf performs much better (around 75% saves).
Moving to the defense, Morgoth is actually probably a better mid-fielder, but when he's had the mind to move to defense he's quality there too. His Balrog defender is just a classy defender, and model of consistency, accumulating a WAR of +2.9 over his 5 year span at the position. Uimuiyan is clearly the unknown, but the cat's quickness and agility should match up well against other quick FWs.
The Easterlings always play hard for Morgoth, but they are prone to making big (and quite costly) mistakes. The mid-field is going to struggle, because they'll have spurts of playing well and making sure passes get up to Telvildo and Ancalagon, but then they'll just have a bad turnover or foolish penalty...forcing Morgoth, the Balrog and Carcharoth to try to make up for the mistake. Which they are of course able to do, but not all the time.
Ancalagon and Telvildo are an interesting combo of power and speed which should really be a pain for a lot of defenses. Telvildo's more of a passer, but the cat can tunnel its way beneath defenders legs (and many have tried to protests that when catbeasts intentionally trip up defenders by running underneath a player, it should be called a foul) and get close range goals. Ancalagon, like Smaug is pretty much a goal-scorer only. Although the dragon's got a couple different ways to get them, tough to contain in the air but can also blast in long range power shots with its tail.
Angfauglith
FRIENDLIES:
-AC Beleriand (L1-2)
-Nargothrond (L1-2)
They lost to 1 title contender and 1 playoff quality team...so not awful, but there's something that just wasn't clicking with this team during the friendlies. Their defenses were facing 2 of the top attacks in the league this year, but still surrending 4 goals on Ungoliant and some Balrog defenders, and they won't face offenses that deadly in their group, but it's still telling us something isn't working with the way the team was built.
The MF is pretty weak, although they likely won't make any major gaffes like Angband's mid-field, are they good enough to work the ball through TIG's, Imladris' (and even Angband's MF) to their pair of star strikers? They'll have to if they want to advance, but that's the problem we see with this team.
Of course when Gothmog and Ecthelion do get the ball they're going to put up goals, but only 2 goals in 2 games for Angfauglith means they're not seeing enough of the ball because of a weak mid-field unable to give them enough chances.
Imladris
FRIENDLIES:
-Misty Mts (D2-2)
-Arnor (D1-1)
The competition they've played in the friendlies is not nearly the level their opponents played, so they've had 2 good results but it doesn't show they'll be able to contend with the 3 other teams in the group.
Varda is good enough to shut down the best scorer on any team, particularly the one's with evil hearts will flee from her bright, shining power, but she can't defend everyone by herself. And the other defenders are ok, but definitely beatable...particularly seeing they'll have to try to stop Ancalagon, Telvildo and Gothmog, Ecthelion, and then a bunch of wolves, vampires and wights. Maybe if they would just shout "Elbereth!" that will be enough to get into the heads of the baddies, but that seems to only work on the Nazgul.
The mid-field is more solid than Angband's and Angfauglith's, Arahael and Lindir are capable of feeding passes to Elladan and Elrohir, and scoring by themselves on occassion. The insane raving of Figwit fans seems to be on the minds of some, much to their annoyance, but Imladris is the displaced team in this group, going well away from their protected Vale and into hostile territory, so they likely won't get any crowd advantage (even though the Figwit fans are notoriously loud)
Elladan and Elrohir just aren't worth their caps. I mean their numbers are comparable to Tar-Miriel or Morwen, who are perfect when they're in a system as the 4th or 5th offensive option, but not as the attackers expected to carry an offense. Elladan and Elrohir will have to carry the load but it's a burden too big for them.
Tol-In-Gaurhoth
FRIENDLIES:
-Doriath (W3-0)
-Havens (W2-1)
If we hailed Angband as having great talent at key positions, TIGs talent looks even better. ShastaWolf back between the posts has been a solid keeper for the Isle of Wolves for several years running now. A pack of wolves in defense, phantomwolf one of the best assist-wolves in the game...then InzilWolf and Thuringwethil up front? Phew...where is the weakness?
It's going to be if this team is capable of not shooting themselves in the foot. Their friendly performance suggests they have been able to player smarter without losing any confidence in their own inate skill. I won't be a true believer (that is put them to win Group G) until I see it when the games matter more and pressure rises. I think they'll play with enough anger and vengeance from last year's disappointment (and missing the playoffs for the first time) to advance (and also be an extremely tough out in the playoffs)...but I just can't put them over Angband.
Arrr...this group is driving me crazy because TIG has it all to be a championship team this year, yet still might not make it out of their group if they revert to old habits.
Projected Standings:
1. Angband
2. Tol In Gaurhoth
3. Angfauglith
4. Imladris
GROUP H
Anduin
FRIENDLIES:
-Eriador (L0-1)
-Shire-Bree Utd (D1-1)
This is another group that's driving me crazy. Anduin appears to have everything to win this group easily, but going through our WAR numbers there are a lot of holes that can be exploited by the other teams in this group. And if they couldn't be Shire-Bree in the friendlies, then you can rightfully ask can they beat anyone in this group?
Let's start with defense, now Celeborn is a solid defender, and you can actually look to take him over Fram if you're so inclined. Fram's numbers as a defender are average where Celeborn has a little more experience and playing with Rivendell's defenses in 2008 and Lothlorien's in 2011 turned out to be the best Elven defenses (and therefore one of the top defenses in those respective years). Felarof had a good year in 2009, playing for Rohan but his numbers have steadily declines and they're even worse when he's not playing in his home environment. Leaving Minalcar as the weakest link and he's quite a weak link (-0.8 WAR, over 2 years).
Some may shout this is hometown player bias but the fact is, Boromir is in his best position. As an attacking MF Boromir II has had his best years, when he's been in offenses that look for Glorfindel, Aragorn, or Feanor to take up the scoring. When it's just Boromir he comes up way short, but he's done well in the MF when there's other viable options. (We'll make note that Haldir is flat out horrible in the position he's in (-2.2 WAR)...Leod is decent, primarily his good numbers come from one explosive performance in 2011, but taking out that single game he's pretty average).
The team's success will depend on if Grimbeorn and Eorl can get the job done. Eorl, like Felarof is a dynamite performer when he plays for Rohan. But his 1-season away from home (2011) he was a shell of himself and played with no heart. He'll have to find someway to play with the passion he has in Rohan, otherwise Anduin will be left behind in this group.
Arnor
FRIENDLIES:
-Barad-Dur (D0-0)
-Imladris (D1-1)
The low budget squad has still managed to put together a competitive team. 2 draws against teams with larger budgets and probably tougher competition than what they'll face in this group.
Arvedui at goal is decent, he's had some very good games going against Angband and the Valar, but also some stinkers. So his performances are quite varied, which means he's not championship quality, but he's good enough to make sure Arnor doesn't lose many matches.
Arnor just looks reliable and a safe pair of hands (or rather feet) up and down the roster. A mid-field that doesn't make mistakes with defenders like Elendil and Malbeth (both had a good year at that position with Westernesse in 2011). Then the Witch-King and Araphor up front? They're no pushovers, especially when it comes to late game heroics and comebacks.
Mordor
FRIENDLIES:
-Gondor (L1-3)
-Erebor (L0-1)
It appears, on the surface this looks like one of the lousiest teams in the tournament. A 2-goal loss to Gondor is bad, a 1-goal loss to Erebor is less shaming, but still a loss. Then you see 1 goal in 2 games, while giving up 4. I wouldn't count out this low budget team just yet either though.
Remember Mordor nearly advanced in (admittedly a weak Group H) last year. Had Barad-Dur not scored a late, and rather unlucky goal, Mordor would have advanced instead of Minas Tirith last year. So despite having a low budget last year too, this team knows how to compete.
Their success (or failure) will depend on the mid-field, it's actually got more playoff experience than Anduin and Rohan's mid-field, plus the Mouth supported by 2 of his Nazgul will definitely work in unison. Shelob's a fearsome presense as a FW (has been improved in that position than as a GK).
Is the defense good enough? That's going to be an uncertainty, but none of the teams in this group have been lighting up the scoreboard. (granted they played tough defenses, but so did Mordor. They allowed 3 against Gondor, but you'll also see inflated scoring in heated rivalries when the teams are amped up).
Rohan
FRIENDLIES:
-Isengard (W2-1)
-Dwarves Utd (L0-1)
And then where does all this leave Rohan? Because a 1 goal loss to Dwarves Utd is not bad when looking at the competitiveness they'll face in this group. And a 2-1 win over Isengard is a positive.
Theoden's stellar goal tending year was when he was protected by his pair of tireless horses and a pair of Rohanian royalty (plus being in a lousy offensive group featuring Taniquetil, The Shire, and Dorthonion...controversial color-analyst called those teams "Taniqantscore, Borethonion, and not even good enough to come up with a cheesy name Shirelings" that year.")
The defense is also questionable, because Windfola and Snowmane...not only are they not Felarof and Shadowfax, but they pick up way more cards than a lot of defenders. The defense and Theoden may be protected this year though by a ball-controlilng midfield that should work well together and be hard for the teams in this group to get through). King Dead and Aldor are stout defensive mid-fielders then you've got Eowyn, Brytta and Faramir in the attack who are all not not alien to scoring some goals.
It'll have to be those 3 though because Helm is out of position. Helm is more naturally a mid-fielder with a wickedly powerful shot. The "Hammerfoot" can put in some tremendous long distance rockets, but he doesn't have the skills to be a FW. His career in the FW position is 1 goal and like 5 yellow cards.
Projected Standings:
1. Arnor
2. Mordor
3. Anduin
4. Rohan
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Fenris Penguin
Last edited by Boromir88; 06-29-2013 at 11:38 AM.
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