The AKM will provide the advanced Phantasy Players some statistical material to take better hold of what is going on between the teams – which are their specific strengths and weaknesses.
So here are the stats from the two first rounds of the tournament thus far...
After the group definer (A, B, C…) and the venue(s) there are all the results of the games played on the first two rounds in that group – in the end there are the group-standings (inside the coded brackets... showing the points and the goal-difference respectively) and the last games to be played.
In the middle there are some stats – and here is the guide on how to read them.
Let’s take the alphabetically first team of Group A as an example: it goes as follows:
Code:
Armenelos 3-2 1-1-0
10/26 – 11/28
Offence 3/26 11,5%
Tar Atanamir 2/11 81,8%%
Row 1: Team name, goals made – goals allowed, wins – draws –losses
So:
Armenelos has made 3 goals and allowed 2, they have won 1, drawn 1 and lost no games.
Row 2: Shots aka. shots on goal / overall shots made, shots on goal allowed / overall shots allowed
So:
Armenelos has shot 10 shots on goal while shooting 26 shots overall, on their own side they have allowed the opponents to shoot 11 shots towards goal from 28 opposing teams shots overall.
Row 3: Offence aka. number of goals / shots overall, scoring percentage from all shots made (not from shots on goal *).
So:
Armenelos has scored 3 goals from 26 shots overall – which means they have a scoring percentage of 11,5% from overall shots.
Row 4: Goalkeeper aka. number of goals allowed / shots on goal allowed, keepers saving percentage from shots on goal.
So: Armenelos goal-keeper Tar Atanamir has allowed 2 goals from 11 shots towards the goal (so he has saved 9 shots from 11) and thus his saving percentage is 81,8%.
* We could have chosen also counting the shooting-percentage from only their shots towards goal, but as that number would have only mirrored the stats of the goalkeepers they have faced we thought counting it from all the shots would be more informative, giving a slightly different perspective to the stats.
~*~
So here are the stats. The AKM will refer to them with it’s further analyses for the last round of the group-phase, but will not make a detailed and separate analysis on the basis of it – but what little follows this article.
ADD ON: Hah, only group H looks like I would have liked the stats to look like but there are too many tables to be corrected. WIth the above instructions they should be clear enough even if the lines aren't aligned properly in every case...
Group A
GROUP A at Valimar & Taniquetil
Armenelos 2-1 Havens
Barrow-Downs 0-2 Valimar
Havens 2-2 Barrow-Downs
Armenelos 1-1 Valimar
Code:
Armenelos 3-2 1-1-0
10/26 – 11/28
Offence 3/26 11,5%
Tar Atanamir 2/11 81,8%%
Barrow-Downs 2-4 0-1-1
8/23 – 11/27
Offence 2/23 8,7%
Alien 4/11 63,6%%
The Havens 3-4 0-1-1
13/27 – 11/27
Offence 3/27 11,1%
Amandil 4/11 63,6%%
Valimar 3-1 1-1-0
9/24 – 7/22
Offence 3/24 12,5%
Manwë 1/7 85,7%
Valimar 4 3-1
Armenelos 4 3-2
The Havens 1 3-4
Barrow-Downs 1 2-4
Last games:
Armenelos vs. Barrow-Downs
Valimar vs. The Havens
Group B
GROUP B at Gondolin & Tumladen
InterBeleriand 2-0 Dwarves United
AC Beleriand 2-1 Gondolin
AC Beleriand 3-1 InterBeleriand
Dwarves United 2-1 Gondolin
Code:
AC Beleriand 5-2 2-0-0
13/29 – 9/22
Offence 5/29 17,2%
Marach 2/9 77,8%
Inter Beleriand 3-3 1-0-1
8/21 – 11/27
Offence 3/21 14,3%
Turgon 3/11 72,7%
Dwarves United 2-3 1-0-1
9/27 – 11/27
Offence 2/27 7,4%
Galadriel 3/11 72,7%
Gondolin 2-4 0-0-2
12/28 – 11/29
Offence 2/28 7,1%
Rôg 4/11 63,6%
AC Beleriand 6 5-2
Inter Beleriand 3 3-3
Dwarves Utd. 3 2-3
Gondolin 0 2-4
Last games:
AC Beleriand vs. The Dwarves United
Inter Beleriand vs. Gondolin
Group C
GROUP C at Menegroth & Neldoreth
Hithlum 1-3 Real Valinor
Doriath 1-1 ShireBree United
Hithlum 4-1 ShireBree United
Doriath 0-2 Real Valinor
Code:
Doriath 1-3 0-1-1
5/17 – 12/27
Offence 1/17 5,9%
Dior 3/12 75%
Hithlum 5-4 1-0-1
13/32 – 13/32
Offence 5/32 15,6%
Húor 4/13 69,2%
Shire-Bree United 2-5 0-1-1
9/22 – 11/27
Offence 2/22 9,1%
Halbarad 5/11 54,5%
Real Valinor 5-1 2-0-0
16/37 – 7/22
Offence 5/37 13,5%
Tulkas 1/7 85,7%
Real Valinor 6 5-1
Hithlum 3 5-4
Doriath 1 1-3
Shire-Bree Utd. 1 2-5
Last games:
Real Valinor vs. Shire-Bree United
Doriath vs. Hithlum
Group D
GROUP D at Dol Amroth & Pelargir
Isengard 0-4 FC Valinor
Barad-Dur 1-1 Gondor
Barad-Dur 2-1 Isengard
Gondor 0-2 FC Valinor
Code:
Barad Dûr 3-2 1-1-0
11/27 – 9/24
Offence 3/27 11,1%
Grishnakh 3/9 66,7%
Gondor 1-3 0-1-1
6/21 – 12/28
Offence 1/21 4,8%
Imrahil 3/12 75%
Isengard 1-6 0-0-2
6/18 – 12/27
Offence 1/18 5,6%
Ugkluk 6/12 50%
FC Valinor 6-0 2-0-0
13/28 – 3/15
Offence 6/28 21,4%
Huan 0/3 100%
FC Valinor 6 6-0
Barad Dûr 4 3-2
Gondor 1 1-3
Isengard 0 1-6
Last games:
FC Valinor vs. Barad-Dûr
Gondor vs. Isengard
Group E
GROUP E at Erebor & Mirkwood
Eriador 2-1 Misty Mts
Erebor 3-3 Wilderland
Misty Mts 2-2 Wilderland
Erebor 0-1 Eriador
Code:
Erebor 3-4 0-1-1
12/34 – 12/30
Offence 3/34 8,9%
Beorn 4/12 66,7%
Eriador 3-1 2-0-0
11/24 – 7/24
Offence 3/24 12,5%
Elrond 1/7 85,7%
Misty Mountains 3-4 0-1-1
9/25 – 13/30
Offence 3/25 12%
Chief Wolf 4/13 69,2%
Wilderland 5-5 0-2-0
14/36 – 14/35
Offence 5/36 13,9%
Great Warg 5/14 64,3%
Eriador 6 3-1
Wilderland 2 5-5
Erebor 1 3-4
Misty Mts. 1 3-4
Last games:
Eriador vs. Wilderland
Erebor vs. Misty Mountains
Group F
GROUP F at Tol Eressea Mobile & Pelargir/Balar/Alqualonde
Minas Tirith 0-3 Nargothrond
The Sea 1-1 Tirion
Minas Tirith 0-2 Tirion
Nargothrond 2-2 The Sea
Code:
Minas Tirith 0-5 0-0-2
7/21 – 18/41
Offence 0/21 0%
Denethor 5/18 72,2%
Nargothrond 5-2 1-1-0
16/38 – 11/27
Offence 5/38 13,2%
Orodreth 2/11 81,8%
The Sea 3-3 0-2-0
11/27 – 10/26
Offence 3/27 11,1%
Hyermendacil 3/10 70%
Tirion 3-1 1-1-0
12/29 – 7/21
Offence 3/29 10,3%
Finarfin 1/7 85,7%
Nargothrond 4 5-2
Tirion 4 3-1
The Sea 2 3-3
Minas Tirith 0 0-5
Last games:
The Sea vs. Minas Tirith
Tirion vs. Nargothrond
Group G
GROUP G at Anfauglith & Tol-In-Gaurhoth
Anfauglith 1-0 Imladris
Angband 0-2 Tol-In-Gaurhoth
Imladris 0-2 Tol In Gaurhoth
Angband 2-0 Angfauglith
Code:
Angband 2-2 1-0-1
12/33 – 9/25
Offence 2/33 6,1%
Carcaroth 2/9 77,8%
Anfaughlith 1-2 1-0-1
6/19 – 11/27
Offence 1/19 5,3%
Ungoliant 2/11 81,8%
Imladris 0-3 0-0-2
4/16 – 9/23
Offence 0/16 0%
Valandil 3/9 66,7%
Tol-In-Gaurhoth 4-0 2-0-0
12/29 – 5/22
Offence 4/29 13,8%
ShastaWolf 0/5 100%
Tol-In-Gaurhoth 6 4-0
Angband 3 2-2
Anfaughlith 3 1-2
Imladris 0 0-3
Last games:
Angband vs. Imladris
Anfaughlith vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth
Group H
GROUP H at Rauros
Mordor 2-0 Rohan
Anduin 2-0 Arnor
Arnor 2-1 Mordor
Anduin 2-1 Rohan
Code:
Anduin 4-1 2-0-0
11/28 – 9/27
Offence 4/28 14,3%
Amroth 1/9 88,9%
Arnor 2-3 1-0-1
10/26 – 13/31
Offence 2/26 7,7%
Arvedui 3/13 76,9%
Mordor 3-2 1-0-1
12/30 – 10/25
Offence 3/30 10%
Watcher 2/10 80%
Rohan 1-4 0-0-2
9/26 – 10/27
Offence 1/26 3,8%
Theoden 4/10 60%
Anduin 6 4-1
Mordor 3 3-2
Arnor 3 2-3
Rohan 0 1-4
Last games:
Arnor vs. Rohan
Anduin vs. Mordor
Some comments.
Reading the stats FC Valinor seems like on a league of it’s own. Their scoring percent from shots on goal is far better than any other team’s aka. 21,4%, while the next best AC Beleriand has 17,2% - Hithlum has 15,6% and then the next effective teams’ percentages hang around 13-14%. Also the number of shots they have allowed the opponent to make (3/15) and Huan’s saving percentage (100%) are also remarkable. T-I-G has allowed the opponents to shoot only 5/22 and the next most effective defences reach 7/21 (Tirion) and 7/22 (Real Valinor and Valimar). Shastawolf shares the 100% keeper-record thus far while a few reach 85% and 80% results.
But – and here’s the but – FC Valinor has played clearly lesser opponents many of the other top-teams have so their stats should look that good. If they were as good as with other serious contenders to win the Cup FC Valinor would look pretty weak indeed. In the same vein T-I-G’s remarkable defencive stats are partly explained by the quality of the offences of the teams they have played: Angband and Anfaughlith are tough teams but hardly offencive powerhouses – and Imladris plays in a group far exceeding their skills (zero goals made thus far).
So one should look for teams that perform very well in tough groups and have already played some tough opposition… The list looks hardly surprising: Armenelos, Valimar, AC Beleriand, Real Valinor, Nargothrond, Tirion – added with Hithlum (not impressive in defence – mostly due to meeting Real Valinor) and Eriador (not impressive in offence partly due to their philosophy of “just winning is enough”).
Does anyone think Minas Tirith, Imladris, Rohan or Isengard are in deep trouble? Just take a glance at their stats and you see why… also teams like Shire-Bree and Gondolin just allow too many goals while Doriath and Anfaughlith have too big problems in making them.
But also bad stats can mislead. “Case Gondor” is a nice example. Looking at their stats it would look like they are one of the teams dropping off from this tournament after the group phase – but alas, there’s more!
Let’s look at it. Isengard is out from group D, disqualified for sure as there is no way they can make it four points from one game (and the second, aka. Barad-Dûr has that many points already). So it will be between Barad-Dûr and Gondor which one will qualify as FC Valinor has also a safe qualification now as two teams can’t overcome it’s six points.
So let’s compare the stats of Barad-Dûr and Gondor. Barad-Dûr shoots about 25% more (27 vs. 21 shots) and their efficiency in scoring is nicely over double the numbers of Gondor (11,1% vs. 4,8%!). Now Imrahil of Gondor has a 10% percent lead in goalkeeping comparing to Grishnâkh (3/9 vs. 3/12 – resulting in 66,7% vs. 75%) but Barad-Dûr actually lets the opponent shoot 25% less – so that is kind of dealt with, right? And Barad-Dûr will qualify?
Well, there is one “but”. First of all Gondor and Barad-Dûr played a game already and it ended up in a draw 1-1. But while Gondor’s last game will be against already disqualified Isengard, Barad-Dûr will meet FC Valinor… so it is clear, whatever the outcomes of the last matches, that the stats will be much more closer after the last round – when they are strictly speaking comparable.
So the stats can be an aide for sure – letting one notice patters or tendencies, or sudden or unanticipated strengths or weaknesses of the teams – but one can’t apply them just like that. One needs to consider both the games against who they have been gathered and what kind of team is the next opponent.