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the phantom · 07-28-2013, 11:26 PM

A Look at Group Scenarios
Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

In case you are wondering which teams look likely to advance, or to take first place, or have already done so etc. this is a handy little guide for where the teams stand with one game remaining.

GROUP A

Armenelos vs Barrow-Downs
Havens vs Valimar

No team here has clinched, and no one has been eliminated. Valimar and Armenelos are in the lead though, as both can clinch a spot with a win or a draw and can even survive a narrow loss, whereas Havens and Barrow-Downs need to win their games by two goals to take a spot. If Havens and BDowns both win 1-0, Valimar would advance in first and Havens in second.

GROUP B

AC Beleriand vs Dwarves United
Inter Beleriand vs Gondolin

AC Beleriand hasn’t technically clinched, but to be left out they’d need to lose by three goals to Dwarves United combined with Inter Beleriand beating Gondolin. If they lose to DwUnt let’s say 2-1 they’d still finish in first unless Inter beats Gondolin by two goals. If Inter and DwUnt both draw then Inter finishes ahead for the second spot. If DwUnt wins or draws and Inter loses then DwUnt qualifies. If AC beats DwUnt then Gondolin could qualify by beating Inter.

GROUP C

Shire-Bree United vs Real Valinor
Doriath vs Hithlum

Real has clinched a spot, and will finish first unless they lose to Shire-Bree United and Hithlum beats Doriath and the margins add up to 3 or more. Hithlum clinches the second spot with a draw unless SBUnt beats Real by at least four goals. Doriath can take the second spot with a win over Hithlum combined with a SBUnt loss, draw, or narrow win.

GROUP D

Barad-Dur vs FC Valinor
Gondor vs Isengard

FCVal has clinched a spot, but Barad-Dur can still finish first with a win over FCV. BDur clinches second with a draw, or with a Gondor loss or draw. Gondor can take second with a win combined with a BDur loss so long as the margin adds up to three. Isengard is eliminated.

GROUP E

Erebor vs Misty Mts
Eriador vs Wilderland

Eriador has clinched first place, and second place is up for grabs. If Erebor and Misty Mts draw then Wilderland clinches second with a win or draw. They can also clinch with a one goal loss and an Erebor-Misty draw so long as Erebor-Misty don’t outscore them by more than one goal (Wilderland is up two in goals scored). If Wilderland loses or draws then Erebor or Misty can claim second with a win.

GROUP F

Nargothrond vs Tirion
Minas Tirith vs The Sea

Minas Tirith is out, but that’s all that is known. If Nargothrond or Tirion pick up a win against the other then they will clinch first. The loser can still advance if Sea loses or draws against MTirith, but if Sea wins then they will take the second spot. If Nargothrond and Tirion draw then Sea can take the second slot from TIrion by beating MTirith by three goals, or only by two so long as they score more total goals than Tirion.

GROUP G

Angband vs Imladris
Angfauglith vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Technically no one is eliminated here, and first hasn’t been clinched. If TIG beats Angfauglith and Imladris beats Angband by two goals, Imladris can take second. If Angband draws they take second with a TIG win or draw. If Angband wins by only one goal TIG would still finish ahead with a one or two goal loss, and a two-goal loss would cause Angfauglith to tie with Angband on differential. A two-goal win by Angband safely clinches a spot. If Angband loses then Angfauglith takes a spot with a win or draw, and if Angband draws then Angfauglith needs to win to pass them.

GROUP H

Arnor vs Rohan
Anduin vs Mordor

Technically no one is eliminated here either. Anduin clinches first with a win or draw, while Mordor can clinch first by beating Anduin so long as Arnor doesn’t defeat Rohan by three or more goals. If Arnor loses or draws then Mordor can take second with a draw. If Mordor loses then Arnor can take second with a win or draw. Rohan can grab the second spot with a two goal win combined with Anduin beating Mordor by two goals.

What This Means for Phantasy Owners

Remember, most leagues limit trades once the final round of group play begins, so you don’t want too many players that are at risk of elimination. We’ve tried to look at the likelihood of various scenarios and narrow the teams into categories of how much of a risk it is to own players from those squads.

PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS WILL BE GONE
Isengard
Minas Tirith

PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE AT HIGH RISK
Imladris
Shire-Bree United
Rohan
The Barrow-Downs

PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE AT RISK
Angfauglith
Arnor
Doriath
Dwarves United
Erebor
Gondolin
Gondor
Misty Mts
Mordor
The Havens
The Sea
Wilderland

PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE AT SLIGHT RISK
Angband
Armenelos
Barad-Dur
Inter Beleriand
Hithlum
Nargothrond
Tirion
Valimar

PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE RATHER SAFE
Anduin
AC Beleriand
Tol-In-Gaurhoth

PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE ENTIRELY SAFE
Eriador
FC Valinor
Real Valinor

07-28-2013, 11:26 PM	#97
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	A Look at Group Scenarios Philip McPhantom, MESPN News In case you are wondering which teams look likely to advance, or to take first place, or have already done so etc. this is a handy little guide for where the teams stand with one game remaining. GROUP A Armenelos vs Barrow-Downs Havens vs Valimar No team here has clinched, and no one has been eliminated. Valimar and Armenelos are in the lead though, as both can clinch a spot with a win or a draw and can even survive a narrow loss, whereas Havens and Barrow-Downs need to win their games by two goals to take a spot. If Havens and BDowns both win 1-0, Valimar would advance in first and Havens in second. GROUP B AC Beleriand vs Dwarves United Inter Beleriand vs Gondolin AC Beleriand hasn’t technically clinched, but to be left out they’d need to lose by three goals to Dwarves United combined with Inter Beleriand beating Gondolin. If they lose to DwUnt let’s say 2-1 they’d still finish in first unless Inter beats Gondolin by two goals. If Inter and DwUnt both draw then Inter finishes ahead for the second spot. If DwUnt wins or draws and Inter loses then DwUnt qualifies. If AC beats DwUnt then Gondolin could qualify by beating Inter. GROUP C Shire-Bree United vs Real Valinor Doriath vs Hithlum Real has clinched a spot, and will finish first unless they lose to Shire-Bree United and Hithlum beats Doriath and the margins add up to 3 or more. Hithlum clinches the second spot with a draw unless SBUnt beats Real by at least four goals. Doriath can take the second spot with a win over Hithlum combined with a SBUnt loss, draw, or narrow win. GROUP D Barad-Dur vs FC Valinor Gondor vs Isengard FCVal has clinched a spot, but Barad-Dur can still finish first with a win over FCV. BDur clinches second with a draw, or with a Gondor loss or draw. Gondor can take second with a win combined with a BDur loss so long as the margin adds up to three. Isengard is eliminated. GROUP E Erebor vs Misty Mts Eriador vs Wilderland Eriador has clinched first place, and second place is up for grabs. If Erebor and Misty Mts draw then Wilderland clinches second with a win or draw. They can also clinch with a one goal loss and an Erebor-Misty draw so long as Erebor-Misty don’t outscore them by more than one goal (Wilderland is up two in goals scored). If Wilderland loses or draws then Erebor or Misty can claim second with a win. GROUP F Nargothrond vs Tirion Minas Tirith vs The Sea Minas Tirith is out, but that’s all that is known. If Nargothrond or Tirion pick up a win against the other then they will clinch first. The loser can still advance if Sea loses or draws against MTirith, but if Sea wins then they will take the second spot. If Nargothrond and Tirion draw then Sea can take the second slot from TIrion by beating MTirith by three goals, or only by two so long as they score more total goals than Tirion. GROUP G Angband vs Imladris Angfauglith vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth Technically no one is eliminated here, and first hasn’t been clinched. If TIG beats Angfauglith and Imladris beats Angband by two goals, Imladris can take second. If Angband draws they take second with a TIG win or draw. If Angband wins by only one goal TIG would still finish ahead with a one or two goal loss, and a two-goal loss would cause Angfauglith to tie with Angband on differential. A two-goal win by Angband safely clinches a spot. If Angband loses then Angfauglith takes a spot with a win or draw, and if Angband draws then Angfauglith needs to win to pass them. GROUP H Arnor vs Rohan Anduin vs Mordor Technically no one is eliminated here either. Anduin clinches first with a win or draw, while Mordor can clinch first by beating Anduin so long as Arnor doesn’t defeat Rohan by three or more goals. If Arnor loses or draws then Mordor can take second with a draw. If Mordor loses then Arnor can take second with a win or draw. Rohan can grab the second spot with a two goal win combined with Anduin beating Mordor by two goals. What This Means for Phantasy Owners Remember, most leagues limit trades once the final round of group play begins, so you don’t want too many players that are at risk of elimination. We’ve tried to look at the likelihood of various scenarios and narrow the teams into categories of how much of a risk it is to own players from those squads. PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS WILL BE GONE Isengard Minas Tirith PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE AT HIGH RISK Imladris Shire-Bree United Rohan The Barrow-Downs PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE AT RISK Angfauglith Arnor Doriath Dwarves United Erebor Gondolin Gondor Misty Mts Mordor The Havens The Sea Wilderland PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE AT SLIGHT RISK Angband Armenelos Barad-Dur Inter Beleriand Hithlum Nargothrond Tirion Valimar PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE RATHER SAFE Anduin AC Beleriand Tol-In-Gaurhoth PLAYERS FROM THESE TEAMS ARE ENTIRELY SAFE Eriador FC Valinor Real Valinor __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.