Elenrod:: Today: thousand-yard stares at the ready; classic relegation shock as Gondolin get shot by Legolas and Dwarves United, and the Havens get clattered by the Saucepan Man and the Downs, leaving both teams with zero wins. Elsewhere, more elimination blues as Imladris and Minas Tirith are still unable to get on the score sheet, with defensive powerhouses Angband and the Sea still waiting on the last day. Meanwhile, in Menegroth: “Don’t panic”, says Túrin and company, as the Hithlum scoring machine finally churns out goals. All these stories, predictions, quotes, and more, in today’s
Matchday. Joining me today is the hopefully on-form tactical expert, Maikalomion.
Maika: Hello.
Elenrod: And the hopefully out-of-form, with regards to making controversial comments, Adam Smith.
Adam:: Still not the economist.
Elenrod: Indeed. With them is, in whatever form he is, Felagundion.
Adam: How was the lottery?
Felagundion: Wasted a hundred on my first week. I don’t think trying my luck is the way out of slavery.
Elenrod: The same could be said of many of this week’s teams, don’t you think? As usual, we’ll make our way down the list, starting with Group A. Now, what happened to the Havens?
Adam: Alien looked like he had one of those days any top-flight goalie has, when nothing but the absolute best shots seems to get past him. Combine that with an interested Bombadil, and the Havens were lucky not to lose.
Felagundion: The Barrow-downs were as dogged—and disruptive—as their fans. And they’ve chosen a grand stage to show that to the world.
Maika: As for the other game, we see glimpses of Arien’s 2012 form with his game for Valimar. It’s just so sad that she’s not getting enough touches. From what we’ve seen last year you know she can participate in the build-up play as well as bang in the goals. It doesn’t it have to be her against the entire defence, like what Legolas did; she can get Irmo and Ingwë involved in the attack.
Felagundion: All Manwë teams—heck, many Valar teams this year: Aulë’s, Ulmo’s, and Varda’s, for example—play a low-tempo game. Combine that with Valimar’s inability to dominate possession against a cohesive Armenelos midfield, that leads to how little of the ball Arien sees. Valinor and Real were very much up-tempo team—recover possession, then three passes later they’re in the opposition box. That’s where she thrived.
Adam: Next round they face a Havens team with a similarly cohesive midfield, especially with their double pivot of Eärwen and Mithrellas. So expect more of the same for Arien, I guess.
Elenrod: Any predictions for the final round?
Adam: Assuming Bombadil reverts to being uninterested,
2-0 Armenelos.
Maika: 1-all for the other one. No,
2-1 Valimar—the Havens defence is atrocious, and I expect Arien and one of Valimar’s midfielders to score.
Elenrod: That’s it then. Moving along…
Felagundion: Poor Gondolin. They met Leggy on his day, when his usually mediocre first touch was impeccable.
Adam: First goal was offside, though.
Felagundion: That wouldn’t have been anywhere near a goal had Penlod challenged the ball in the air instead of getting into a foot race with Leggy.
Adam: Hey, Penlod is fast. He was a poacher for Vinyamar, where he played more to his explosive speed than his height to get into the box and score those late winners.
Felagundion: Yes, but this and that are different. Over short distances of five to ten metres his sprinting is gold, but if your defensive strategy hinges on him running twenty meters to chase a water bug then you’ve lost.
Maika: I guess it’s just poor team-building on Gondolin’s part. They have a solid front five—when they switched to 4-1-3-2 to chase the game, they created a lot of chances and troubled Aulë enough to force him to change formations. But the ‘1’ in their 4-1-3-2 is not a real holding midfielder, and their defenders aren’t ones you want playing a high line. That’s why they’re so open in the middle and vulnerable to counterattacks.
Felagundion: They should’ve got a horse or an eagle instead. By the way, did any of you catch what Azaghâl said in the post-game press conference?
Elenrod: When he was bashed by the local press for how they treated the Gondolin players?
Felagundion: ‘Do you mean when we were a little bit rough with the tackling? In our league, we do that quite often. That's actually allowed in football.’ Brilliant quote.
Elenrod: Any comment on the other game? Or is that what you expected from the Beleriand derby?
Adam: AC Bel are still pretty much the bigger fish between the two, so yeah.
Felagundion: Denethor! I love him and his long diagonal passes. If your team is based on playing on the wings and outnumbering full-backs, then he’s gonna create a lot of chances.
Elenrod: What do you think happens to their next games?
Felagundion:
2-0 AC Bel. I expect Leggy to regress to the mean, fluff chances again, and he won’t be running past Rochallor. Also, Marach, unlike Rog, actually comes out of his box to clear long balls.
Maika:
2-1 Inter. Gondolin will have to attack, and that plays right into their hands. The next meeting between Beren and Salgant won’t be pretty. He’ll probably get sent off again.
Elenrod: On to Menegroth we go then. So what do we have here? Two teams just proving they’re on a different level to the other two?
Adam: Yeah, that’s basically it. But I’m worried about Hithlum. When you pay their attackers too much respect, when you set up defences a little closer to your box and concede the midfield, that’s when they shine, score four like they did here. But the teams in the quarterfinals or semis won’t give them that. They’d be like Real—be in-your-face and try to deny Túrin and company the ball.
Felagundion: In the other game, for a few minutes Real turned into the 1970s Netherlands team, dragging Doriath defenders all over the pitch. I’d be wary of them doing that against better squads, though—if they give away possession, and the opposition manages to find a mismatch quickly, that’s pretty much a goal conceded. Imagine if Ancalagon gets matched up with Enerdhil.
Elenrod: Predictions?
Felagundion: Can’t I just say both will be cricket scores? Oh, all right.
3-1 Hithlum.
Adam:
3-0 Real.
Elenrod: All right, then. Maika, you were a little bit quiet there. Not interested?
Maika: Not much to analyse, is there?
Elenrod: That’s true. Maybe Group D will be more to your liking.
Maika: Well, both teams who won had more talent than the teams they beat. Gondor’s approach was interesting, though. They didn’t just park the bus; they offered something going forward. It almost paid off, too—they created the first clear chance of the game. Eldacar should’ve converted that.
Felagundion: Didn’t you find Isengard scoring first vs Barad-dûr interesting?
Maika: Not really. Barad-dûr must have been expecting Quickbeam to win aerial balls, so they put the fellbeasts on him. They were then surprised when Saruman played a ball to his feet. But they adjusted after that and he was quiet for the rest of the game.
Elenrod: How do you think Gondor would fare against FC Val?
Maika: That’s a tough one… Barad-dûr has a better defence, and a slightly better offence, than Gondor. But enough to score against FC Val? I think
2-0 FC Val.
Adam: So second seed hinges on Gondor’s score vs Isengard. Hmm…
2-1 Gondor? Penalties for the last spot?
Elenrod: I guess that’s it for Group D. How about Group E? Will Erebor still make it? Do Misty Mts have a chance?
Maika: Aside from Eriador, this group looks open. Well, Wilderland are in a tough spot—they’re playing Eriador.
Felagundion: Which they can win. Erebor lost just by a goal.
Maika: It
was a pretty comprehensive 1-0 defeat. Eriador were just better in all areas. Classic Elrond stuff; they just don’t overexert themselves. Then again, they don’t concede much, so they hardly have to chase a game.
Adam: Also, Wilderland are
atrocious at the back. Maybe it’s just match-up problems, Ents guarding creatures with flames.
Elenrod: So how many goals will Wilderland concede against Eriador?
Adam: I’m thinking
1-0 Eriador.
Maika: Then
3-2 Erebor, with Bard scoring the winner.
Elenrod: On to Group F, then.
Felagundion: When Uinen scored the Sea’s second goal I was distraught. Distraught, I tell you. I didn’t think Ulmo and company would concede a second. To my great relief we did score an equaliser, but afterwards, our players were all knackered. If there had been extra time, or if there had been a bit more time on the clock, I think we would’ve lost. We really need one good centre-back.
Adam: That’s a bad thing, because Tirion cruised past Minas Tirith. Tirion v Nargothrond’s very important for deciding who advances, because I don’t think the Sea would drop the ball against Minas Tirith.
Felagundion: Yes, I’m very worried. Good thing we have a better goal difference, but we can’t play for a draw, because we don’t have all that good a defence to sit on. I hope we control possession, score an early goal, then just play on the break.
Maika: Glaurung will get a lot of space in the hole. He’d have a better game than he had vs the Sea.
Felagundion: It
was depressing how easily Tar-Ciryatan stuffed Glaurung in his pocket.
Adam: By the way, another wonderful quote from Denethor II after the game. ‘You say talented players, but I don’t know. Are they that talented? I don’t know, really. I wish you were right.’
Felagundion: And then afterwards, when someone asked him if he had any regrets. ‘If I had a chance to change anything, I would have tried harder to get my son in. I wouldn’t have wasted 10 million on Éomer, who’s been useless.’ What I wouldn’t do to be a fly in their locker room.
Elenrod: The scores?
Felagundion: Oh, Eru…
Nargothrond and Tirion draw 2-all?
Adam: Maybe
2-0 Sea. They’d win, and I don’t think they’d concede, but I doubt they can score three or more.
Elenrod: So spot kicks between Tirion and the Sea for the last spot? That’d be fun—second straight time the Sea would need penalties to qualify. Moving along; Group G, then. Was anyone surprised when Angband beat Anfauglith?
Adam: What? No. Angband have a better squad overall than Anfauglith. Anfauglith’s goalie is better, definitely, and maaaybe they have a better second striker, but in all other areas…
Felagundion: Well, both of their midfields are crap.
Adam: There is that.
Elenrod: How about Imladris? Is anyone alive there?
Maika: Well, if they or Minas Tirith—or both—fail to score, that’d be the first time a team failed to score in the Arda Cup. Even the hapless Shire-Bree squad placed in a group with
that Doriath squad, as well as Himring and Tirion, managed to score.
Elenrod: Tough luck to be placed in a group of solid defences when you don’t have an Arda-class striker. What do you think will happen?
Maika:
2-0 to Angband.
Adam: And
1-0 to TiG.
Elenrod: And, finally, group H. So, Mordor beat Rohan, but they lost to Arnor. What happens if Rohan beat Arnor?
Felagundion: A whole lot of fun. The same scenario’s in play in Group B—there’s a chance of a team advancing to the knockout rounds with only three points. There’s a lot of firsts that could happen in this Arda Cup.
Maika: I don’t think it’ll happen, though. Arnor are clearly the second most talented team in the group.
Elenrod: Despite leaving it very late against Mordor?
Maika: Well, they upped the tempo only in the last twenty minutes of the game, when they still had to chase the game. Super intense pressing is usually done in either of these two phase—very early, when you hope to score an early goal then just sit back and play on the break, or late, when you can bear down superior attackers on tired legs.
Felagundion: It also helps when you have a specialist late-game poacher. Loved the ‘Super Araphor’ chants by the Arnorians.
Elenrod: Scores?
Maika: Hmm,
2-1 Arnor.
Felagundion:
3-1 Anduin? Well, I hope someone scores more than two in this group.
Elenrod: Do you have any favourite goals this week?
Felagundion: Arien’s solo effort was the only one that really appealed to me.
Adam: I liked Legolas’s winner. One touch and then a screamer from thirty metres.
Felagundion: A better goalie would have come out of his box and made the angle more difficult.
Adam: True, but Legolas doing his thing—maybe I’m a closet Leggy fanboy.
Maika: Aradan’s volley from a long ball was something special; to anticipate it and boot it in first time took some skill.
Elenrod: None of the Fëanorion stepped up this week, did they? By the way, did no-one think of
Inter’s goal vs Roma when they saw Mordor’s goal? Just slick passing from the Nazgûls and the Mouth.
Felagundion: I suspect shenanigans from Sauron.
Elenrod: Haha, that’s possible. And that brings us to the end of another episode of
The Matchday. Join us again next week as we discuss the winners and the losers of the groups, as well as predict the round of sixteen games. As usual, our thanks to Maika and Adam and Felagundion. Bye for now, and see you then.