The group-phase is over and it’s time for the play-offs! And what thrillers there are on offer!
Sure a few games look like the one going through is more or less secured based on the huge difference in the quality of the groups – but even in those games one must remember that it is now up to a single game and even the mightiest teams can screw it up and the lousiest teams may have luck on their side… or then some teams just are harder for some others to play against even if they would crush other types of teams likeBalrog does a flower. But just glancing at the possible quarterfinals makes one shiver – what pairings there wil be, and how many “moral finals” already on these early stages!
But to the first round of qualifiers first.
A1 Valimar vs. H2 Arnor
Valimar: Through the years all Manwë’s teams have been formidable by their looks and scary by their inherent power but they have never quite delivered, being the team that famously wins with one to nil, gets risen only againt the baddies and loses when some real talent plays against them. This year it looks a bit different and the adding of Arien into the offence (or her return actually) makes them look really dangerous this season.
Arnor: The kings of the north are a proud team but sadly their quality is not one matching their elders or the other powers of Arda. Last season they fought bravely against Inter Beleriand and Eriador only to be run over by Gondolin – this year they started by losing squarely to Anduin only to rise up and redeem themselves with narrow victories over Mordor and Rohan – hardly teams winning of which would make you rise up on any table of odds for the cup. The Witch King and Elendil sure are players no one can bypass but neither has shown anything tremendous thus far.
From that it should be easy to deduce the AKM will not bet on Arnor to qualify. To make an immediate disclaimer the AKM notes though that Arnor is maybe suited better than any other team to prove to be a hard opponent for Valimar just because of their goody-good looks and their defence-first strategy. But there is also the issue of the Witch King who might be – and normally would be – an asset for the team having him, but who could actually arouse some righteous anger in team Valimar making them by-pass their initial drive to be nice against Arnor’s northern Dunedáin.
The stats are favouring Valimar in no uncertain terms. As themselves the stats are basically even or somewhat favourable to Valimar – but looking at the level of the game in the two groups the teams played one sees immediately that Valimar has earned their stats against pretty much a league better opponents than Arnor.
And to close the case the AKM wishes to draw the attention to two stats in particular. Valimar’s efficiency in scoring (counting all the shots) is 15,2% against Arnors’s 7,9% - and Arnor has allowed 45 shots againt them while Valimar has only allowed 33 – and that is, against a lot tougher opponents.
The AKM predicts: Valimar goes forward winning 2-0.
Code:
Valimar 5-2 2-1-0
4/10 – 3/10 5/14 – 4/12 4/9 – 5/11 = 13/33 – 12/33 5/33 15,2%
Manwë 0/3 + 1/4 + 1/5 = 2/12 83,3%
Arnor 3-3 2-0-1
4/13 – 7/16 6/13 – 6/15 4/12 – 5/14 = 14/38 – 18/45 3/38 7,9%
Arvedui 2/7 + 1/6 + 0/5 = 3/18 83,3%
B1 AC Beleriand vs. G2 Angband
AC Beleriand: Fëanor-tribe has been just cool and collected this season, rising up to be one of the serious candidates to win the whole cup this year. Their game has been impressive and efficient both ways – even if many people tend to worry about their downstairs. And it is coming forth more and more as a team and not like Fëanor and his minions; actually Aegnor, Eöl and Balrog #4 are ahead of Fëanor in phantasy points and Fingolfin shares the fourth place with him. That said, Fëanor still is the biting teeth only few teams have and he can change the course of a game single-handedly if there is need for it.
Angband: Melkor’ team took a really bad beating from the T-I-G on the first round of the group-stage and many thought their star was descending – but since that they have gathered themselves and shown they can really play some impressive and efficient football. And no team in their senses would disregard the threat of Ancalagon and Morgoth playing together. Behind them, with Tevildo there goes also Oikeroi who has shown himself a real threat as well. So Angband is not a team to be taken lightly by anyone – even the Valimar-based teams.
Fëanor vs. Morgoth would be a classic anytime but this time both teams have also a lot to claim – AC Beleriand sure is willing to go to the final from where they were shut off last year and Angband still remembers sorely the shoot-out they lost to Minas Tirith more or less to the floppiness of their performance during the game. With the animosity between the teams already in the air, everything talks of one of the hottest games of the round taking place here. Well, Fëanor vs. Melkor… how hot can it get?
Both teams have met with some real tough opposition in the group phase – but a bit different ones. AC Beleriand has met with strongly offence-orientated Gondolin and Inter Beleriand and the strong defenders Dwarves Utd. while Angband has met lousy Imladris, defending-powerhouse Anfaughlith and the all-around aggressive madness of the T-I-G. Therefore one should take AC’s statistical lead over Angband in offence with a pinch of salt. That said, AC Beleriand has been almost double more effective in scoring than Angband – and the difference of their opponents’ defending thus far hasn’t been that great.
Carcaroth may be having a shinier legend as a goal keeper but Marach is on the other hand quite unjustly one of the least appreciated top-goalies of the tournament basically year after year – and Marach does beat Carcaroth in percentages thus far. Carcaroth has the minus in his stats for meeting T-I-G – in other games his percentges are pretty good indeed (1/6 aka. 83,3%) – but as Marach has stood against both Gondolin and Inter Beleriand with 81,8% one should deem that more or less even – or then even favouring AC Beleriand slightly.
Those facts considered – and taking in the great rivalry the game is going to have the AKM thinks AC Beleriand will qualify – even if it’s going to be a tough one.
The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 2-1.
Code:
AC Beleriand 8-2 3-0-0
7/16 – 6/12 6/13 – 3/10 8/16 – 2/7 = 21/45 – 11/29 8/45 17,8%
Marach 1/6 + 1/3 + 0/2 = 2/11 81,8%
Angband 5-3 2-0-1
4/14 – 6/15 8/19 – 3/10 8/17 – 3/9 = 20/50 – 12/34 5/50 10%
Carcaroth 2/6 + 0/3 + 1/3 = 3/12 75%
C1 Real Valinor vs. F2 Tirion
Real Valinor: Before the season many thought Real Valinor would not be top contenders both because they felt satisfied with the last year’s victory but also because they lost their single most important game-changer with Arien moving to Valimar. But Real has shown the doubters they’re in the game also this year for real, for Real (if you excuse bad puns). They draw with FC Valinor in the friendlies (losing them twice last season), beat the mighty Hithlum 3-1 and took comfortable 2-0 victories of the lesser teams of their group (Melian’s Doriath and Gandalf’s Shire-Bree – teams good enough to have caused a lot of trouble to many teams qualified from other groups).
Tirion: With last season’s bitter memories (facing FC Valinor, Real and Armenelos in the group phase and left the last of the group) Tirion is all for revenge – and they have been quite impressive. Beating Gondolin in the friendlies 2-0 showed their qualities and drawing with Angband solidified their status. Pushing the Sea off the qualifiers is a mark of a good team and being able to contain Nargothrond to a draw tells the same story. Finwë and Aredhel form one of the deadliest offencive duos of the tournament and with them the team either takes the glory or perishes.
Even if the AKM thinks Tirion is a great team and would have talent to advance a long way it seems Real Valinor is just a level too tough an opponent for them – as last year. The chance Tirion might have is if Real is already looking forwards to their game against FC Valinor the next round and forget they need to win Tirion first. But looking at the professionalism within the ranks of Real Valinor that seems like a vain dream.
Finwë, Aredhel and Mahtan should make any opponent worried, but compared to Miriel, Nerdanel and Oromë backed by Nessa… well there just is a difference. Caranthir leading the defence with Amrod and Amras is great and having Finarfin at the goal even more so – but compare it to a defence led by Tilion including Nienna and Nahar and goal guarded by Tulkas himself – and once again you see a difference.
Drawing with the Sea and Nargothrond are merits to Tirion, but Real Valinor’s beating of Hithlum 3-1 is just on a different class. Tirion will not let Real win easily but Real will prevail in the end – and Real will be their undoing once again.
The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 2-1.
Code:
Real Valinor 7-1 3-0-0
9/22 – 5/14 7/15 – 2/8 6/14 – 3/9 = 22/51 – 10/31 7/51 13,7%
Tulkas 1/5 + 0/2 + 0/3 = 1/10 90%
Tirion 5-3 1-2-0
4/13 – 4/12 8/16 – 3/9 8/18 – 6/15 = 20/47 – 13/36 5/47 10,6%
Finarfin 1/4 + 0/3 + 2/6 = 3/13 76,9%
D1 FC Valinor vs. E2 Misty Mountains
FC Valinor: Everyone is afraid of brothers Curufin and Celegorm and with Huan backing them up – aided by Yavanna, Eönwe and Thorondor… well they are a bunch no one wishes to meet in contest. Talk about elite players and here you have them, a full house scoring eight goals to one conceded in the group phase. They have so much to grunt from last season and such a crew you hardly see them lose a game this year with their superb offencive power and tight defence.
Misty Mountains: The wild-card of this year’s tournament made it through before Erebor and Wilderland – maybe because of the success of the Hobbit movies (Azog!) or something – no one really undestands it. After drawing with Imladris and losing to Barad-Dűr in the friendlies they were able to knock out two major teams! That belittling aside, Durin’s Bane is a top class player and Gwaihir has the character of being able to win things by himself when needed (like he kind of did in their last game against Erebor).
Now Gwaihir might have been able to fool Meneldor and Landroval but Thorondor, the king of Eagles, will have none of that happening under his watch. Durin’s Bane may be a mighty one but faced with Eönwe and Huan he will have no chance whatsoever to bully his way through – or to threaten Tulkas. On the other end of the field the brothers, Yavanna and Argon will just vreac havoc even if the defences are big…
One might argue that FC Valinor’s stats are mileading as they had one of the easiest groups to qualify from whereas Misty Mts. really had to battle it out – and one could add that Huan’s fit this year has not been seriously tested as he has only been shot at six times (while Chief Wolf has faced 18 shots), but even that taken in to account it is hard to see any other result but FC Valinor going forwards from this game – to meet Real Valinor!
The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 3-1.
Code:
FC Valinor 8-1 3-0-0
7/14 – 1/7 6/14 – 2/8 7/16 – 3/10 = 20/44 – 6/25 8/44 18,2%
Huan 0/1 + 0/2 + 1/3 = 1/6 83,3%
Misty Mountains 5-5 1-1-1
4/12 – 6/12 5/13 – 7/18 7/14 – 5/14 = 16/39 – 18/44 5/39 12,8%
Chief Wolf 2/6 + 2/7 + 1/5 = 5/18 72,2%
E1 Eriador vs. D2 Barad-Dűr
Eriador: Led by Elrond Eriador has been as effective as possible with the minimal effort once again. Eriador is a team the AKM journalists love to hate: steady, careful, risk-avoiding, temperate, quiet, low-laying yet effective and inpenetrable fortress for a team – and that doesn’t mean you can’t score against them, no way – but somehow in the end of every tournament Elrond is one of the best goalies even if he doesn’t have the most work, and they win games to reach the final stages of the games whoever they meet on the way. But like never 4-0 but rather 1-0 or 2-1. Annoyingly efficient team –and can go far this year as well.
Barad-Dűr: Sauron got it from the group phase and gave a decent fight to already satisfied FC Valinor – other than that would have been scandalous: had they not qualified as Gondor and Isengard were more jokes than real teams this year (and yet Gondor forced them into a draw). Sauron has added credibility to the defences – and he must be cursing now the fact that the stubborn NogWolf didn’t see the ingenuinity of his plan to make Nog as a wolf the pillar of his defence but went on for a mediocre midfield status to Eriador as a Wight - a classy werewolf would have been a great add-on to the wizards and one Fellbeast. But it’s not only that: Castamir and Beruthiel are not delivering – like they didn’t the last year – and Sauron has a lot to do to try and score games by himself.
Only a few would bet on Barad-Dűr but if they get it right they’ll earn some real bragging rights. And the AKM actually thinks that if you have to (or want to) bet against odds in one game this might be the one you might try it.
Now Eriador’s stats are a bit better than Barad-Dűr’s but FC Valinor disregarded the opponents of Eriador were league ahead of those Barad-Dűr has faced. Now the wizards of Barad-Dűr’s defence might pose a problem for Isildur and Arveleg but it is doubtful they could enchant Glorfindel or NogWight. On the other end Sauron is always a trouble for any defence, but looking at the line of Gil-Galad, Asfaloth, Aragorn and Arwen in front of Elrond it would seem Sauron’s chances of scoring more than Eriador as a team is slight.
As said, the stas are pretty close, but consistently favouring Eriador.
The AKM predicts: Eriador wins 2-1.
Code:
Eriador 4-2 2-1-0
6/12 – 4/12 5/12 – 3/12 3/10 – 4/11 = 14/34 – 11/35 4/34 11,8%
Elrond 1/4 + 0/3 + 1/4 = 2/11 81,8%
Barad Dűr 4-4 1-1-1
6/14 – 4/13 5/13 – 5/11 3/10 – 7/16 = 14/37 – 16/40 4/37 10,8%
Grishnakh 1/4 + 1/5 + 2/7 = 4/16 75%
F1 Nargothrond vs. C2 Hithlum
Nargothrond: The offencive powerhouse number one, but not that impressively ahead of others –they are more or less falling into the same category with teams like Gondolin or Armenelos: teams that have what it takes and yet have hard time to deliver it. But with the attacking trio of Finrod Felagund, Glaurung and Gwindor, how is it they just don’t seem to deliver? Orodreth sure isn’t the hottest goalie but guys like Beor the Old and Barahir should be able to keep the defences tight.
Hithlum: Last year was just a disaster. This time around Hithlum has put all their eggs in one bucket. Yes, they lost to Real Valinor badly on the first round and their friendlies were not exactly showing them as an unstoppable force… but nonetheless Hithum is serious to advance and it takes quite a team to stop them. Just looking at their goal difference from the last two games, 7-1, should make any opponent pause. Especially the “founding father” Hador Lorindol has really stepped up this season (well with all his familys fortunes in the team he should) and Túrin has been getting hotter and hotter every game. Huor at the goal might be their Achilles’ heel though – even if he os not exactly a bad keeper – but is he a winning keeper and for how far?
Looking at how different the two groups were it is astonishing how similar the stats of both teams are. Shots to goal and shots allowed – as well as overall shots and overall shots allowed are almost identical. Hithlum is more efficient in scoring (16% vs. 13%) but Orodreth keeps the goal reasonably safer (79% vs. 74%) – which is (with the similar numbers with shots made and allowed) quite accurately shown in their scores: Hithlum has made on goal more while Nargothrond has allowed one less.
So statistically the game starts with neither team having an edge – and both teams rely on forcefully attacking football. Add to that the tensions between some players in the teams… If Fëanor vs. Melkor is a hot duel then what should one say about Túrin and Glaurung fighting it off? And well, we’re going to have another really hot game here!
But where to pick the difference then? Nargothrond has been consistent against tough adversaries drawing with both The Sea and Tirion while Hithlum took a beating from Real Valinor. On the other hand Nargothrond beat the very weak Minas Tirith “only” 3-0 while Hithlum cleared a lot tougher (compared to MT) Shire-Bree and Doriath 4-1 and 3-1 respectively. On Nargothrond’s side Gwindor has yet to find his form and Nienor who was in flames in the friendlies has somewhat disappeared. On Hithlum’s side both Beleg and Húrin have been playing in a low key thus far as surely a lot more has been anticipated from them. So hard to say…
The AKM predicts: a draw 2-2 (or 3-3), the ensuing shoot-out will be anyone’s game.
Code:
Nargothrond 7-4 1-2-0
10/25 – 4/12 6/13 – 7/15 6/15 – 8/18 = 22/53 – 19/45 7/53 13,2%
Orodreth 0/4 + 2/7 + 2/8 = 4/19 78,9%
Hithlum 8-5 2-0-1
5/14 – 9/22 8/18 – 4/10 9/18 – 6/14 = 22/50 – 19/46 8/50 16%
Húor 3/9 + 1/4 + 1/6 = 5/19 73,7%
G1 Tol-in-Gaurhoth vs. B2 Gondolin
Tol-in-Gaurhoth: The wolfpack has been quite anemic since the restrictions on their lupinity took place and being forced to play more as Wights than Werewolves. But with the eased rules they are now allowed six werewolves in their pack (one of them being actually none less than Draugluin himself) and with the surprise-signing of Thuringwethil they suddenly look like they used to be: dangerous, aggressive, athletic, fast, furious and deadly – and all that with solid defences. And they have suddenly bounced to be one of the most talked-of team, but also a serious contender to go, very far at least.
Gondolin: Many say Gondolin is not playing up to their credentials and that the days of their glory have waned away – and somehow dismiss them as not “any more” a great team. And it is true they haven’t played on the final rounds in a few years now – but they are still a formidable team. Last year, like this one, they took themselves out from the group-phase with a glorious last match fight. Last season they had the tough luck of being thrown under a bus called AC Beleriand in their first qualification game (they lost then cleanly 0-2 but this year in the group stage only 1-2). Looking at their friendlies kind of tell a lot: they were beaten by Tirion 0-2 but draw with Hithlum 2-2 – so they are capable of challenging even the great teams on a good day and they do know how to fight – but can also collapse like they did against Dwarves Utd. at group phase.
In a sense this is actually a perfect match-up for both teams as the first round of qualifiers go. If T-I-G is willing to rise as a serious contender for the whole Cup they need to be able to beat Gondolin which is a level tougher opponent than Imladris or even Anfaughlith (which T-I-G draw with) – especially as Gondolin is going to attack in force unlike most of the teams T-I-G has played against. But also, if Gondolin is willing to pose as a serious team they need exactly this kind of very physical and rough-playing opponent to hone their defence and show they can actually outscore a team of that kind.
And yet as you could see both teams as quite challenges to each other, one can see both teams having decent chances in winning the game as well.
Leaving all that behind it is true tht T-I-G’s stats look consistently – if narrowly – better, except in goal-keeping where the difference is big indeed for T-I-G. It’s not only Shastawolf’s excellence compared to Rôg but the difference is rooted in the number of shots the teams allow. Eight shots towards goal in three games vs. eighteen shots makes a huge difference. But there is a “but” as well. Both Beleriand teams – and even Dwarves Utd.! – are actively offensive teams who shoot a lot whereas Imladris and Anfaughlith are almot opposites to that. Then again T-I-G defences managed to keep Angband’s shots relatively few in numbers even if they normally do play aggressive offence.
So in the end it will all be up to whether the T-I-G can keep their goal clean as it seems Gondolin will allow a goal or probably two anyway. So how many will Gondolin score?
The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 2-1 (or draw 2-2).
Code:
Tol-In-Gaurhoth 5-1 2-1-0
6/15 – 4/14 6/14 – 1/8 5/14 – 3/8 = 17/43 – 8/30 5/43 11,6%
ShastaWolf 0/4 + 0/1 + 1/3 = 1/8 87,5%
Gondolin 5-6 1-0-2
6/12 – 7/16 6/16 – 4/13 9/21 – 7/17 = 21/49 – 18/46 5/49 10,2%
Rôg 2/7 + 2/4 + 2/7 = 6/18 66,7%
H1 Anduin vs. A2 Armenelos
Anduin: The strength of the team is not in having one or two superstars to bring the games home but in their quite level quality through the team. So no stars but no weak links either. Winning group seconds Arnor 2-0 was confident work but other than that they have hardly impressed anyone (playing even with Shire-Bree or Mordor hardly sounds like a quarterfinalist performance). It maybe the river Anduin may host a great team in years to come able to go far in the tournament, but it is not this year.
Armenelos: The proud kings of their great island of Númenor have downgraded their salaries but at the same time made their team more solid – with the come back of Elros the team is ready to make good the last year’s disaster. If you can call losing to FC and Real Valinor a “disaster” instead of calling it just understandable – and that might be their greatest problem this year, they themselves. If they only concentrate on setting things right on a grander scale they might forget to play football – which they sure know how to do. Taking a bit more relaxed attitude would do them good and could carry them all way at least to the semis – or even to the end. But concentrate on wrong things and their tournament might even end here.
Both teams are rare breeds in a way that they both are pretty rock-solid through and through with no real weak links in them. And the stats are astonishingly similar up to the exact same percentages in both goal-scoring and –keeping. Anduin has a little better defencive stas overall while Armenelos is an inch better in the offensive stats.
But then we come, once again, into comparing the groups in which the stats were made – and only a fool would say that playing against Arnor, Rohan and Mordor would come even near equalling games against The Havens, Valimar and the Barrow-Downs (the last one maybe, but not the two earlier ones). Taking a look back at their friendlies confirms the matter. Both lost a game in the friendlies with one goal: Armenelos to AC Beleriand and Anduin to Eriador – all respect to Eriador but quite a few would bet on AC this year if the two met. They both also played a draw: Anduin with Shire-Bree and Armenelos with Nargothrond – and there should be no question which one draw was the great deed and which one was not.
If they play their best Anduin can challenge Armenelos but the AKM wouldn’t bet a lot on their chances against the mighty Númenorians.
The AKM predicts: Armenelos wins 2-1.
Code:
Anduin 5-2 2-1-0
7/16 – 4/13 4/12 – 5/14 5/14 – 3/10 = 16/42 – 12/37 5/42 11,9%
Amroth 0/4 + 1/5 + 1/3 = 2/12 83,3%
Armenelos 5-3 2-1-0
6/14 – 6/14 4/12 – 5/14 8/16 – 7/15 = 18/42 – 18/43 5/42 11,9%
Tar Atanamir 1/6 + 1/ 5 + 1/7 = 3/18 83,3%