[the phantom]

MESPN Round-Table Discussion
Live from Amon Obel

Philip McPhantom: Well folks, here we are- it's playoff time again! And as always we’re here to provide views of the way group-play ended up and to give predictions for the first round of the playoffs. I’m Philip McPhantom, MESPN Lead Football Coordinator, and with me I have the dragon Ruharg the Red, the lead sports editor of Monster Magazine, and Ar-Tar-Aradil, sports writer for Westernesse Weekly and president of the Numenorean Association for the Advancement of Football.

Ruharg: Hello again.

Ar-Tar-Aradil: Pleasure as always.

P McPhantom: Well, first things first, why don’t we all say where we’ve been and where we’re headed.

Ruharg: I spent group play in Erebor, and for the first round I’m headed up to Mithrim to watch AC Beleriand and Angband play.

Ar-Tar-A: I spent the first two rounds about Tol Eressea mobile stadium, and when it docked in the Blessed Realm I went on to Valimar to watch the final game there. For the playoffs I’m headed back to Valimar to watch them play Arnor.

PMcP: I watched the first round at Anduin, then I made it down to Dol Amroth in time to catch Tol Eressea when it docked briefly there and caught the second round at Balar, and then went up to Gondolin for the third round. For the playoffs I’m headed to Tol-In-Gaurhoth.

Ruharg: I have wings, so I can get around pretty darn fast, but how are you two getting around so quick?

PMcP: Well, a few eagles cut a deal with MESPN—they’d get our correspondents around quickly, and they’d have their choice of seating for free wherever we were headed, and meals on us of course.

ATA: Yeah, a big thanks to our eagle friends.

PMcP: And in case any of our listeners are wondering why we’re in Amon Obel, it was just a nice meeting spot for all our analysts. Adanel was covering the Anfauglith group and she was passing through on the way to Nargothrond, Finwanaro is also on his way to Nargothrond from the Doriath group, and it wasn’t much out of the way for Mortakh, as he’s going from Anfauglith to Mithrim.

Ruharg: Will any of those three be joining us today?

PMcP: They’re actually doing a show of their own right now, but I do have lists of their picks and comments, so maybe we’ll mention them later.

ATA: Where are the rest of the MESPN folks?

PMcP: Well, Haldan ended in Dol Amroth and he’s headed up to Amon Hen, Glain is headed from Gondolin to the Blessed Realm, and Arvagil is going from Anduin up to Weathertop.

ATA: So MESPN will have all the sites well covered.

PMcP: You know it!

Ruharg: Can we get down to business now?

PMcP: My my, can you believe someone is anxious to discuss football?

ATA: Heh, I think we all are.

PMcP: So first things first—what did you two think of the group stage? Ruharg first, since he’s so impatient.

Ruharg: I’m not exactly happy about the group I witnessed firsthand, obviously.

ATA: Yes, your dragon buddies had some hard luck in Erebor.

Ruharg: I thought Smaug and Scatha might give Eriador some trouble, but credit to them—they handled things professionally. And Misty Mts, well—I feel they sort of outdid the others at their own game.

PMcP: Durin’s Bane played like a dragon, didn’t he?

ATA: And the Misty defense proved rough and tough enough to handle the Wilderland and Erebor attacks.

Ruharg: All true. Credit to the Misty Mts.

PMcP: Why don’t we back up a minute and start at the top—Group A.

ATA: It was much as I expected—Armenelos and Valimar advancing and The Havens giving them a good run for their money.

Ruharg: And I was pleased to see the Barrow-Downs step up their game.

PMcP: Yes, they gave Armenelos and Havens all they could handle. How about Group B?

ATA: Also as I expected.

Ruharg: About everyone had AC Beleriand through, but Gondolin wasn’t who I picked.

PMcP: Picking the second team from this group was very tough. I had the Dwarves.

Ruharg: I had Inter Beleriand.

ATA: Those were both worthy picks. The defensive organization and talent of the Dwarves set them apart in group, while the offensive flare of Inter made them attractive.

Ruharg: But in the end Gondolin outscored them. I shouldn’t have doubted Maeglin and company.

PMcP: Did everyone get Group C correct?

Ruharg: Real and Hithlum here.

ATA: Same. I toyed with the idea of Doriath and Shire-Bree as a second team—they weren’t pushovers. But the other two squads just had too much firepower.

PMcP: How did you fare in Group D?

ATA: I thought Gondor would get in ahead of Barad-Dur.

Ruharg: That’ll teach you to bet against Sauron. How could you not have him in the playoffs?

PMcP: To be fair, he doesn’t have the hottest talent helping him score. Though I did think they’d have Gondor’s number—he’ll forever be a thorn in their side.

ATA: Everyone had FCVal of course.

PMcP: Heh, yes, no reason to discuss that. How about Group E?

Ruharg: Now, now, no reason to rehash those bad memories. I think we covered it.

PMcP: Ah right. Group F?

ATA: I definitely got this one wrong. I had The Sea and Minas Tirith.

PMcP: I had Sea and Tirion.

Ruharg: Sea and Nargothrond.

PMcP: So why didn’t the Sea come through?

ATA: Scoring. Tirion and Nargothrond had the weapons and the mindset, but The Sea just didn’t know how to be aggressive, so they were left out despite having good possession numbers and a solid defense.

Ruharg: Yep, they just needed a bit more fire.

ATA: *sigh* Maybe fire and water don’t mix.

PMcP: Group G?

Ruharg: This was probably my favorite group—three of the squads had creatures after my own heart.

PMcP: How did you pick between them?

Ruharg: I didn’t think there was any way Morgoth would get left in groups. He’d will his way to victory one way or another. As far as choosing the second squad, I went with Angfauglith, and I was wrong.

ATA: I picked them too.

PMcP: I got this one right, boys. I had TIG winning the group. I thought their midfield was better than Angfauglith’s, and their defense was just as good, and their style better suited for Angband. And onto the final group…

Ruharg: I had Anduin, but not Arnor. I had Mordor instead.

ATA: You were nearly right, but you should’ve stuck with Arnor.

PMcP: Arnor was smarter and more organized, yes, and perhaps Witch King was helpful in breaking down the opposition. He’s familiar with Mordor’s players after all.

Ruharg: And it’s a shame that Rohan goes home without points, but it doesn’t surprise me. They simply lost too much from last year.

PMcP: Now let’s look forward at the playoff matches, guys. Valimar versus Arnor.

ATA: We know the Dunedain of the north have upset the high-flyers of the Blessed Realm before, but I’m having trouble picking them this year.

Ruharg: Yes, Valimar wins this one. With Arien spear-heading things up front, Arnor won’t be successful with their tactics.

PMcP: What do you think those tactics will be?

Ruharg: They’ll try to own the ball a lot and clog things up and play politely etc. and generally try to keep things at 0-0 for as long as possible, then try for a miracle goal.

ATA: That does sound about right. And really I’d give them some chance at pulling it off against most given their execution and discipline, but you’re right Ruharg—I think Arien is too hot to handle like that.

PMcP: So then, any chance Arnor realizes that and tries a bit more attacking to keep Valimar honest?

ATA: I’ve debated about that, and in the end, I just think Arnor will stick to character.

PMcP: Okay then, how about perhaps the most anticipated match of the first round, Angband versus AC Beleriand?

Ruharg: This ought to be everyone’s most anticipated match. I mean—look at the squads. Before the start of the tournament, if you’d have said that this would be the championship game, no one would have expressed any surprised. It’s almost a shame that the clash happens so soon and one team will go home so early.

ATA: Heh, yes, this is definitely a match of epic proportions, but I’m not disappointed to see it early. With the way the tournament is set up there will always be a match or two like this early on, and it’s part of what keeps things interesting, right?

Ruharg: I guess that’s one way to look at it.

PMcP: Any bold predictions?

ATA: I think AC wins this one solidly. But of course Ruharg will disagree.

Ruharg: Well, actually, I’m leaning towards AC as well.

PMcP: What?!

ATA: Surely not!

Ruharg: Ha ha, yes, I know, it’s out of character. You know I’ve always liked Morgoth-led teams, and Ancalagon is definitely one of my favorite players, but just looking at the matchup…

PMcP: Go ahead and get specific, Ruharg, tell us what you see.

Ruharg: Well, AC actually has a defender that can provide some match for Ancalagon’s speed and size, with their Balrog, and Fingolfin is a fabulous athlete and should be able to shut down the primary make-things-happen man, Telvildo. And at the other end I just don’t think Angband is prepared for the four-headed attack of AC.

ATA: That’s what I saw making the difference. Eol and Feanor are so similar—Feanor is obviously on a skill level by himself, but they play the same with the creativity and ability to keep the ball on a string. To shut down the offense you have to stop both of them, and then Angrod and Aegnor seem to really work well with them.

PMcP: Yes, I thought it was a good call letting Beren go and bringing in the brothers. Sometimes quantity outdoes quality.

ATA: And let’s not pretend that those two are low quality either. Perhaps not individually on Beren’s level, but they aren’t far, and there are two of them.

Ruharg: I agree—Angband would have a better shot at shutting them down if they only had three to worry about rather than four.

PMcP: Well then, let’s get on to Real Valinor versus Tirion.

Ruharg: I thought from the start that the defending champs had a free pass to the quarterfinals.

ATA: Not so fast—I think Tirion won’t be easy.

PMcP: But you do think Real wins?

ATA: *sigh* I guess, but I don’t want to sound like it’ll be a romp. I think the three sons of Feanor at the rear will be, with their skill-set and experience, uniquely qualified to put the brakes on Miriel and Nerdanel. If Real is going to score I think they’ll need Orome to show up in a big way.

PMcP: And what about Tirion’s attack?

ATA: The trio of Finwe-Aredhel-Mahtan has to be respected. Now, I think Real can shut them down about as well as anyone if they commit to it in front of Tulkas, but that will detract even more from their offense if Tilion and midfielders have to be defense-first. I think all of this adds up to a low-scoring affair.

Ruharg: I’ll believe it when I see it.

PMcP: How about the other Valinor, FC, playing against Misty Mts.

ATA: If there’s a first-round blowout, this is where it happens.

Ruharg: I won’t say that. Misty has earned enough of my respect. I’ll say they put up a fight and frustrate FC a bit. But yes, FC wins in the end.

PMcP: Why a blowout, Ar-Tar?

ATA: Caradhras, William, and the Watcher aren’t known to be the most mobile defenders. They match up better against size and power. What chance in the world do they have with Curufin, Celegorm, Yavanna, and Argon running at them?

Ruharg: But perhaps won’t Durin’s Bane and company be able to keep pace?

ATA: Between Eonwe and Thorondor that threat will be erased, and Maglor is more than a match for any of the other attackers.

PMcP: Okay, what do you guys think of Eriador versus Barad-Dur?

Ruharg: An intensely meaningful and interesting game, Elrond against Sauron. Both of them have been trying to stretch their investment influence, and in the future I imagine they and their business partners will be seriously sparring over influence in the Misty Mts and perhaps Wilderland.

ATA: Much of that will depend upon how successful their current squads are.

PMcP: Quite right, and that’s what makes this important. It’ll be a few extra million to the winner.

Ruharg: I figure it’ll be low scoring—

ATA: No surprises there.

Ruharg: Indeed. And frankly I’m at a loss to predict a winner. I suppose I’ll go with Barad-Dur because of Sauron as the x-factor, but I don’t feel good about it.

PMcP: How is he going to score all alone against an Arda-class keeper and a fine defense in front of him?

Ruharg: That’s why I don’t feel good about it. But I don’t like Eriador’s chances of scoring either, not with the two Blue Wizards now hanging about.

ATA: My tie-breaker is the midfields—I think Eriador’s will get them more chances, whereas Sauron won’t see much of the ball.

PMcP: That’s where I ended up with my picks. So how about Nargothrond versus Hithlum?

Ruharg: This ought to be an extremely entertaining view. Both offenses should be able to overrun the opposition.

PMcP: How many goals in the game?

Ruharg: I’ll say six.

ATA: That sounds about right.

PMcP: Who wins? Adanel, Mortakh, Haldan, and Arvagil all went with Hithlum, but Glain, Mortakh, and I have picked Nargothrond.

Ruharg: Nargothrond. When Hithlum gets it they just try and score, but Nargothrond is more flexible with building their attacks, and I think their ability to morph out of the break-neck pace and control things will work to their advantage.

ATA: I think the opposite—I think Hithlum’s attitude of attacking without hesitation will lead to more goals, plain and simple. And Ruharg is just picking Nargothrond because of Glaurung anyway.

Ruharg: Har har.

PMcP: All-righty, let’s move on to Tol-In-Gaurhoth versus Gondolin.

ATA: I think Gondolin can score on TIG. They’re crafty and good tactical ball-movers—

Ruharg: Where’s the “but”?

ATA: Ha ha, yes, BUT—Gondolin won’t be able to stop TIG from scoring. They just don’t have enough at the back.

Ruharg: Exactly. TIG will play longball after longball and the Wolves and Thuringwethil will win enough to create a few chances, and from those chances they’ll score enough to win.

PMcP: So we’re all in agreement there. How about the final game, Anduin versus Armenelos.

ATA: Predictably I’m going with my home city. I think Armenelos will dominate the midfield and possession, and Boromir and Eorl won’t be able to impose their will on anyone. And at the back I think Anduin will be outmatched.

Ruharg: Slow your roll, there—I don’t think Celeborn or Fram will feel outmatched, and Felarof is always useful at getting up high for headers and blocking lanes. I can see that Armenelos will probably own possession, but I don’t think they’ll score easily. And Grimbeorn—frankly I like his chances of scoring off a set piece or off a corner.

PMcP: So you’re picking them?

Ruharg: Yes, Anduin for the win.

PMcP: Well, there we are, just in time—we made it through all the first round playoff games. Enjoy watching, you two, and of course everyone else out there listening. We’ll be back in a few days to discuss how tragically wrong or geniusly correct our picks were.

Ruharg: The latter referring to me, of course.

ATA: *chuckle* I suppose stranger things have happened.

PMcP: Now, now, you ought to know it’s too early to gloat.

Ruharg: And you ought to know that now is the only time to gloat—we never make it through with unblemished picks!

*laughter*

PMcP: Well, we’ll see if anyone can break that streak this year. Have a good one.

ATA: Thanks.

Ruharg: See you later.