[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK: Octofinals Preview
-Boro88

A look back at the first 3 rounds. I was quite happy with using our "wins above replacement" stats to predict winners. 14 of 16 playoff teams correct, there were just some who ended up in reversed order. But we had identified the major underdog upsets (Misty Mountains, Gondolin) as well as the overpriced and over-rated (Erebor, Angfauglith).

Our two misses were Mordor and The Sea this year. I wouldn't even count Mordor as a miss though, because in a statistical anamoly they had more goals and a better differential than Arnor, but Arnor's magic bag of surprises got them through. Mordor was the better team, but Arnor ended with more points. Although, we had called Arnor to advance as well, and identified Anduin as the overpriced and overrated. They were not, so you could say we missed the mark there on Anduin. The other miss, The Sea, we thought defensively were strong enough to advance over Tirion. But we had said that Group F was the toughest 3-team battle for 2 spots in this year's tournament.

In those two cases WAR was off, but I'll take 14/16. And this is where it should really help us start determining winners. It's time for what TTN likes to call the "Octofinals". Where 16 teams, 8 matches, and no more ties remain. When the games get better, the opponents tougher, and there are no Rohan's or Barrow-Downs' left.



Arnor vs. Valimar- The low-budget veterans from Arnor do it again and find their team in the playoffs. Some might recall 2010 where the Norbury kings threw off the majestic Valar in thrilling overtime fashion. But they were a different team back then, and Valimar is a different team now too. After having a real motivation and complacency problem, Manwe has his Valarin mates playing very well. Arien is used to winning playoff games, and won't be content losing in the octofinals. Arnor is feeling good just being here and having a nice profitable year, they will play as the complacent team this time.
*Valimar wins 2-1

Angband vs. AC Beleriand- Wowzers, Angband and AC Beleriand...a match up from the earliest annals of this sport. A match that could be a semifinal, or even a finals battle. And then the winner goes out of the frying pan right into the fire next in having to play Valimar. This is where I hope WAR helps the most in predictions. Feanor has never been eliminated before the quarterfinals. And while I suppose there is a first time for everything, Morgoth and his baddies historically fall short. It's the playoffs, which means it's Feanor time and it's time for him to have a breakout game against the mightiest of enemies.
*AC Beleriand wins 3-2 (OT)

Tirion vs. Real Valinor-
If AC Beleriand and Angband is expected to be a bloodbath, this game should be a technical masterpiece on the pitch. Both teams of longtime family and friends should play respectfully, but it will not be boring by any means. There will be a lot of action, the defenses will be tested...in the end Real Valinor is better at playing Tirion's game, than Tirion is at being itself.
*Real Valinor wins 3-1

Misty Mts vs. FC Valinor-
Now the Misty Mts did a nice job beating out their Middle-earth rivals in both Wilderland and Erebor, but this is something entirely different. Frankly it's time for the Misty Mountains to go back home because we're seeing something similar to the FC Valinor - Isengard outcome. Misty Mountains is a better team than Isengard, so they won't give up 4 goals.
*FC Valinor wins 3-0

Barad-dur vs. Eriador-
Surprisingly this is one of the harder games to call. On the surface it looks like last year's semi-finalist should be able to confidently clear Barad-Dur. Their cool, professional style just wins games. Although they're playing with fire only beating Misty Mountains 2-1 and drawing with Wilderland. Barad-Dur gave FC Valinor a battle and their mastery of set pieces will get them the upset in this match.
*Barad-dur wins 2-1 (OT)

Hithlum vs. Nargothrond-
Another match that is just too too close to call. One of the offensive juggernauts will be eliminated here and now. Nargothrond makes a successful return to the playoffs after years of missing out, but WAR reveals their players are the "one and done" type. They usually lose the octofinals match, even when they do advance. Hithlum missed the playoffs last year too, but their roster is stacked with Arda class champions and they're also specialists at winning shootouts (which this game will be)
*Ties 3-3. Hithlum wins the shootout 4-3.

Gondolin vs. Tol-in-Gaurhoth-
Of all the teams you could say probably don't deserve to be here, it would be Gondolin. I don't mean to be harsh, but come on, they gave up 2 goals to Dwarves United and lost. TIG looks good, they played a bit complacent in the last match against Angfauglith, but they could afford to and conserve energy for this game. Gondolin's defense isn't good enough to contain a clicking (and balanced) TIG team.
*TIG wins 3-1

Anduin vs. Armenelos-
The royal Numenoreans don't look quite like their 2009 championship team, but they are resembling their 2008 semifinalist and 4th place finisher team. It is said the 2nd Age contained the greatest age of Men and they should be able to dispatch their 3rd age foes rather easily. Anduin looks good, but they were in the weakest of groups and their journey ends here.
*Armenelos wins 2-0