|
Well, I wrote up a big analysis of Echo, but there's no point in posting the whole long thing when there were so few conclusions to be drawn from it.
Echo's Day 1 vote for Kath is something that would have looked seerish to a Sorcerer-Kath, provided that the wolves actually knew that the Aura Reader got a pre-Day dream. The sorcerers would have been sensible to kill Echo off then, and didn't. They could have relied on Echo being a newbie who was just bluffing, or on people not believing the claims, but it would still be fairly risky and suggests that Kath is less likely to be a sorcerer, although by no means conclusively.
On Day 2, Echo was basically tapdancing on stage and singing that they were the Aura Reader, Holby was a sorcerer, and they would be killed for knowing too much. Overall, people's reactions to Echo were very similar and consistent. There doesn't seem to be much to learn from it.
Holby, Day 2
Lottie thinks Holby is alarming but that it may just be her style, and that it's easy to hide things with a style like that.
Nerwen thinks Holby is "Not necessarily evil, no– but not exactly helpful, either."
Shasta responds to Kath's annoyance about the lists and says after taking a second look, it seemed that Holby meant she suspected everyone but McCaber. He also thinks Holby's Day 1 vote looked panicky, and he wanted to know why Legate was more suspicious to her than Kath or me. This could either be a sensible train of thought or some subtle wolfy action, believing that Holby could be in trouble very soon.
Lommy asks Echo about why they suspect Holby, and thinks that Holby "looks fairly innocent". Hard to draw a conclusion from this here, as that would have been a sensible post for anyone.
Boro lists Holby among those who are "pinging on my suspicions".
At #133, Holby seems to suggest a Nerwen-Lottie pack. Given that she later voted for Nerwen and that she should have been able to see her eventual doom tap-danced out by Echo by then, I have to wonder if she was just trying to throw suspicion on innocent(s) or if it was subtle protection of Nerwen from a packmate. Holby's so confusing it's hard to tell.
#137 - Boro explains his suspicions of the Day, and of Holby says she's behaving with "textbook looking sorcery". He votes Lottie later in the post. If he's a sorcerer, that was actually pretty sensible, to voice suspicion of a wolf who would be going down perhaps the next Day, but not try to do anything to get them lynched on that particular Day.
#138 - Kath tries to reason out Holby's Day 1 vote, and thinks that if Holby was a sorcerer she might have been trying to save a sorcerer-me.
#147 - Lottie says "Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused."
#151 - Greenie says of Echo and Holby that they're confusing and "I don't know what either of these two are doing!"
#181 - Kath says "I am very unhappy about" Holby. This is pretty consistent with her Day 1 opinion.
#184 - McCaber says he'll vote Holby, who's suspicious. I don't think he could be a sorcerer, so there's no need to analyse that vote.
#188 - Lottie puts Holby in her "no read" category and says if she's isn't voting for Kath she'll vote for one of her no reads. This seems sensible enough.
#194 - Steve lists Holby in his "What?!" category.
#200 - Lottie votes Holby because she doesn't find the other two contenders all that suspicious, she already has one vote for her, and she wants to put forward someone who has a chance of being lynched. This looks a very sensible, innocent vote. But, it would actually be sensible for a sorcerer to vote this way too, if she wanted to secure people's opinions about her innocence even if it got Holby killed. Echo and McCaber were already very likely to vote for Holby. Technically Lottie cast the first vote, but in a way it was the third one. I think she's either innocent or a possible Saruman.
After that, votes for Holby come from McCaber, me, and Echo.
|