Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lottie
Green
Lommy
Steve
= 9 people. 7 innocents (incl. three gifteds), 2 wolves (incl. 1 Saruman).
Coming up with a worst-case scenario:
Say we lynch an ordo toDay.
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day5 we have 5 innocents and 2 known wolves.
1) We lynch Saruman.
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day6 we have 4 innocents and 1 known wolf
-> we win
2) We lynch a regular wolf.
-> next Night a new wolf is named, no one dies
-> in the beginning of Day6 we have 4 innocents, 1 known wolf and an unknown wolf
-> we lynch the known wolf obviously
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day7, we have 3 innocents and 1 unknown wolf
-> we have very slim evidence against whoever the wolf is, a 25% chance to find them at random and barring the ranger or the hunter doing deeds of valour (if they happen to be alive) the next Night, we are screwed.
Ergo, I am not very happy about these contesting reveals at all. The wolves have pretty certainly done this maths too, and in this light,
Lottie's counter-reveal makes more sense
although it would still have been stupid to assume we'd rather lynch her than Eönwë.
Then again, if
Shasta's the one who's lying,
Greenie basically has to be Saruman. The scheme is actually quite smart. By making a fake reveal,
Shasta creates a confusion in which it's easy for
Greenie to hide. He manages to flush out the real seer and in the best case get an innocent (
Eönwë) lynched before he goes. Thus he provides
Greenie a nice chance to hide in peace until he dies, whereupon she can scry a new, totally unsuspectable wolf, so it doesn't even matter if
Greenie herself falls into suspicion. I totally wouldn't put it past
Shasta and
Greenie to come up with a scheme like this.
Now the only problem is of course that the actual seer (
Lottie) dreamt of
Greenie and ruined their scheme. Incredibly bad luck! But my point is, if we believe
Eönwë and
Lottie are the wolves, it's their own fault they are both in the spotlight. But if
Shasta and
Greenie are the wolves, they intended only one of them to be in the spotlight toDay.
Ergo, wolf!
Shasta and wolf!
Greenie's plot would be much smarter than wolf!
Eönwë and wolf!
Lottie's, and in ww I rather overestimate than underestimate people.
Anyway, this maths of mine comforts me a little. If
Eönwë is innocent like I would guess if I really had to choose, then there's no way it's a devious masterplan and
Shasta's actually Saruman, because he and
Greenie would have had no way of knowing
Greenie too would be a lynch candidate.
And if
Eönwë is Saruman, we are really well off. If he's a regular sorcerer and
Lottie's Saruman (which absolutely makes no sense whatsoever), then we are in some trouble but the trouble's no bigger than what is sort of encoded in the rules anyway (and we can blame the moddess if we lose
).
Ergo, I don't really care whether we lynch
Eönwë or
Greenie even though I believe
Lottie over
Shasta.
edit: xed with Eönwë