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Originally Posted by Zigūr
We don't know for sure that Gil-galad would survive a war. Also, why "no Iron Hills or Erebor"? This wouldn't stop the Dwarves uncovering the Balrog in the Third Age as they continued to mine for mithril.
Also I think no matter their amount of their success the Noldor would have waned in the Third Age because it was not in their nature to stay in Middle-earth. They would have faded in any event.
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I agree about the Iron Hills, but Erebor might indeed have not existed. No Sauron means no Dol Guldur (or, at least, no necromancer in Dol Guldur). At minimum, This probably means a very different second half of the Quest; one with Gandalf there the whole time, which might have changed events dramatically Less trouble (if any) with the spiders, the elves (They would be dealing with a party in much better shape (less starving and full of spider venom), if indeed Gandalf didn't figure out a way to skirt around the elves entirely (or, otherwise, enter the elven kingdom in a manner much more amenable to the parties interest (assuming Ganadalf is liked by the Elves of Mirkwood as much as he is by those of Rivendell).
But most likely, the Quest would have been completely different. No Nercomancer would be that Thrain would most likey never have been captured and imprisioned and even more likely that Gandalf would never have found him With no necromancer, why would he ever go to Dol Guldur? (Evne if we are talking about a scenario where Sauron is still alive; held captive on Aman and the Ring still exists (so theoretically, so do the Ringwraiths, all that would be at Dol Guldur would be at best, a Nazgul forever divorced from his master; probably not big enough for Ganadalf to decide to go.) Thrain would most likely have passed the map onto Thorin directly (along with the Dwarven ring, which in this scenario he probably still has) or equally likely, have tried to take back Erebor himself; far earlier in time than Thorin did. In either case, it would probably be a quest sans Gandalf (with Thrain never captured, Gandalf would have never met him, and with no map to give Thorin he never would have met him either.) and definitely without Bilbo. So you'd probably be looking at a quest that ultimately failed (Thrain would probably have had him and his party try and rush the dragon dwarf style, and gotten the whole company roasted for his trouble.) And if by some miracle Smaug's death ocurred more or less as it did in the real quest, the later events would have turned out a lot worse. With no Bilbo to try and soothe the situation with the Arkenstone the Dwarves,Men, Elves and Goblins, assuming the latter two even showed up (if thrain took a path that did not end up with them contacting the Golblins or Mirkwood elves and alterting them that there were Dwarves trying to take back Erebor, one or both might not have showed up. With no Gandalf, the Eagle DEFINITELY would not have). Would likely have slaugtered each other. A lack of Sauron would probably not have stopped Erebor from being FOUNDED, but the events resulting from his non-presence in the Third age would probably have resulted in there being no Dwarven kingdom of Erebor later (though in a world without the war of the ring, that might not have mattered much)