The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - WW CV: They Should Make a Movie About This! (Game Thread)

Coppermirror · 06-01-2014, 07:01 PM

Summary/analysis

Nerwen: Banters, invokes "The Rule of Three" for me, Boro and Sally and makes an accusation against me. Considers the concept of the Maniac and thinks they can't be on the side of the Moviephiles or it would have been in the narration.

Not a lot to go on there.

Sally: Banters. Thinks Lommy's plan for the Maniac to reveal is too risky, as the wolves could choose to kill them straight away to reduce later danger. Then says her post was based on a misunderstanding of the Maniac role. Then argues that the decision's between info for us and also the wolves and no info for us but a time bomb for the wolves.

This reasoning makes sense, although the risk of a bad lynch also remains. But the Maniac would have the option of revealing as long as they were around for voting.

Loslote: Banters. Returns and is against the Maniac revealing toDay. Thinks Greenie's vote for Sally looks innocent and that Lommy's flip-flop makes her look innocent. Finds Legate's tone slightly suspicious on the grounds of sounding careful.

Not a lot to say here either.

Kitanna: Banters. Thinks the Maniac is a wildcard innocent or cobbler/hunter hybrid and the risks and rewards of them revealing are equal. Then takes back earlier posts after finding out the Maniac's on the village's side.

Agh, so many people taking back their posts. Nothing much to analyse here either.

Lommy: Banters, makes joke predictions for how the Day will go. Asks for clarification about the role from Mysterious Disembodied Voice Inzil. Proposes that the Maniac should reveal so we'll have a known innocent or a wolf will fake reveal. Gets confused, says to scrap the plan and that she now understands what Boroand Nog's concerns about fake reveals were about. Then tells Legate she doesn't think the wolves would trade a wolf for a known innocent. Disagrees with Legate's 3b, agrees with Sally about increasing risk for wolves from the Maniac as the game goes on. Thinks Sally and Nerwen are mildly suspicious and Kitanna and Greenie are innocent, all based on tone/gut feeling.

I'd say it's best for the Maniac to keep quiet, so the suggestion that they should reveal right now is a little questionable, but Lommy's done a lot to get discussion going and and her reasoning after her reassessment of her plan has been solid. Not going to vote for her.

Legate: Banters. Discusses the Maniac. Likes Nogrod, thinks Greenie is buddying up very slightly to Boro and Kath. Thinks wolves will only counter-reveal in the normal way. Likes Lommy's Maniac-reveal plan a lot. Expands on the reasoning later. Decides not to abstain from voting. Posts a list with suspicions, plans to vote for a low-content poster or for Greenie or Boro on a gut feeling, then votes Boro.

I like Legate's reasoning for (a) and (b) in post #35, but not (c) and (b). In #42, I can see logic in the reasoning but I disagree with the idea of the Maniac revealing and with the idea that it's better for the Maniac to reveal early if it's to be done. An unrevealed Maniac is a greater risk for the wolves as the game goes on. Takes time to explain the reasoning for his vote, which is good, but might even be slightly too careful.

Nogrod: Gets straight to the point and lists two things that ping him. Nerwen's banter and the way Boro's point about the importance of not lynching the Maniac got buried in the discussion. Thinks the value of the unrevealed Maniac is greater than that of a known innocent, but points out that the Maniac still poses a risk to the village if lynched. Comments on possible opening defences from Lottie, Kitanna and Legate. Does what looks like a logical analysis in #65 and #70. Then votes Kitanna for self-defence opening/carefulness/lack of content.

Nog's reasoning has been fairly clearly stated through all of that. He's also contributed to the discussion a lot. Not voting for him.

Shasta: Showed up late. One substantive post at #72. Some concerns about Kitanna. Likes Nog and Boro's reasoning, and looks at Lommy, Legate and Nerwen for possibly trying to bury the point. Dislikes the Maniac reveal plan. Thinking of voting Kitannaor Lommyand possibly Legate.

His point about Kitanna considering the possibility of the Maniac aligning with the wolves is interesting and perhaps a stretch, given that Kitanna herself ends up reasoning in the same comment that the Maniac would be most likely to be an innocent. But otherwise I think his reasoning looks okay.

Out of the above, I'm...
Feeling relatively good about: Lommy, Nogrod
Neutral about: Sally, Shasta
No idea about: Kitanna, Lottie, Nerwen
Mildly suspicious of: Legate

This is taking far longer than expected, so I'll post what I've got now and cover Greenie, Kath and Boro in a later post. Right now I'm thinking of possibly voting for Legate, but I still haven't looked at those three people's posts closely yet. Aargh, I need to hurry up here.

Edit: crossed with Boro.

06-01-2014, 07:01 PM	#74
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	Summary/analysis Nerwen: Banters, invokes "The Rule of Three" for me, Boro and Sally and makes an accusation against me. Considers the concept of the Maniac and thinks they can't be on the side of the Moviephiles or it would have been in the narration. Not a lot to go on there. Sally: Banters. Thinks Lommy's plan for the Maniac to reveal is too risky, as the wolves could choose to kill them straight away to reduce later danger. Then says her post was based on a misunderstanding of the Maniac role. Then argues that the decision's between info for us and also the wolves and no info for us but a time bomb for the wolves. This reasoning makes sense, although the risk of a bad lynch also remains. But the Maniac would have the option of revealing as long as they were around for voting. Loslote: Banters. Returns and is against the Maniac revealing toDay. Thinks Greenie's vote for Sally looks innocent and that Lommy's flip-flop makes her look innocent. Finds Legate's tone slightly suspicious on the grounds of sounding careful. Not a lot to say here either. Kitanna: Banters. Thinks the Maniac is a wildcard innocent or cobbler/hunter hybrid and the risks and rewards of them revealing are equal. Then takes back earlier posts after finding out the Maniac's on the village's side. Agh, so many people taking back their posts. Nothing much to analyse here either. Lommy: Banters, makes joke predictions for how the Day will go. Asks for clarification about the role from Mysterious Disembodied Voice Inzil. Proposes that the Maniac should reveal so we'll have a known innocent or a wolf will fake reveal. Gets confused, says to scrap the plan and that she now understands what Boroand Nog's concerns about fake reveals were about. Then tells Legate she doesn't think the wolves would trade a wolf for a known innocent. Disagrees with Legate's 3b, agrees with Sally about increasing risk for wolves from the Maniac as the game goes on. Thinks Sally and Nerwen are mildly suspicious and Kitanna and Greenie are innocent, all based on tone/gut feeling. I'd say it's best for the Maniac to keep quiet, so the suggestion that they should reveal right now is a little questionable, but Lommy's done a lot to get discussion going and and her reasoning after her reassessment of her plan has been solid. Not going to vote for her. Legate: Banters. Discusses the Maniac. Likes Nogrod, thinks Greenie is buddying up very slightly to Boro and Kath. Thinks wolves will only counter-reveal in the normal way. Likes Lommy's Maniac-reveal plan a lot. Expands on the reasoning later. Decides not to abstain from voting. Posts a list with suspicions, plans to vote for a low-content poster or for Greenie or Boro on a gut feeling, then votes Boro. I like Legate's reasoning for (a) and (b) in post #35, but not (c) and (b). In #42, I can see logic in the reasoning but I disagree with the idea of the Maniac revealing and with the idea that it's better for the Maniac to reveal early if it's to be done. An unrevealed Maniac is a greater risk for the wolves as the game goes on. Takes time to explain the reasoning for his vote, which is good, but might even be slightly too careful. Nogrod: Gets straight to the point and lists two things that ping him. Nerwen's banter and the way Boro's point about the importance of not lynching the Maniac got buried in the discussion. Thinks the value of the unrevealed Maniac is greater than that of a known innocent, but points out that the Maniac still poses a risk to the village if lynched. Comments on possible opening defences from Lottie, Kitanna and Legate. Does what looks like a logical analysis in #65 and #70. Then votes Kitanna for self-defence opening/carefulness/lack of content. Nog's reasoning has been fairly clearly stated through all of that. He's also contributed to the discussion a lot. Not voting for him. Shasta: Showed up late. One substantive post at #72. Some concerns about Kitanna. Likes Nog and Boro's reasoning, and looks at Lommy, Legate and Nerwen for possibly trying to bury the point. Dislikes the Maniac reveal plan. Thinking of voting Kitannaor Lommyand possibly Legate. His point about Kitanna considering the possibility of the Maniac aligning with the wolves is interesting and perhaps a stretch, given that Kitanna herself ends up reasoning in the same comment that the Maniac would be most likely to be an innocent. But otherwise I think his reasoning looks okay. Out of the above, I'm... Feeling relatively good about: Lommy, Nogrod Neutral about: Sally, Shasta No idea about: Kitanna, Lottie, Nerwen Mildly suspicious of: Legate This is taking far longer than expected, so I'll post what I've got now and cover Greenie, Kath and Boro in a later post. Right now I'm thinking of possibly voting for Legate, but I still haven't looked at those three people's posts closely yet. Aargh, I need to hurry up here. Edit: crossed with Boro.