[Coppermirror]

Time to roll up my dirty hermit sleeves and look at what went on! This post will be long and maybe split up into parts, but I don't think I'll be able to get the grasp I need on what was going on otherwise.

Our Wilwa the Three-Eyed Ravenbeing zapped on Night 2 is the worst thing that could have happened. 18 people left, of which there are 2 lovers, 3 lions, and 13 innocents. It's also unfortunate that the 3 we've lost were talkative.

Page 1
There's plenty of banter from assorted people. Nothing looks particularly suspicious there at the moment.

The first substantive post of the Day comes from Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven. Goes over Bear, Maiden and Targaryen roles. Inzil of Tully agrees with her analysis and points out that the Bear and Maiden can choose who to side with. He sounds straightforward but quiet. Encaitare the peasant concludes in a stressed way that we have four enemies plus a possible cobbler to take out.

G55 the Innocent wildling agrees with Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven that we don't want to kill the bear and says she would trade the extra kill for a cobbler if push came to shove. Later she comments on how her assumption that the Lovers would be against the village might have been wrong. At #22 there's a piece of banter between her and Lommy about Encaitare the peasant and bears which might have spooked the Lions about her if Encaitare is one of their number or perhaps made them think she was a bear-dreaming Seer leaving hint. But would that be enough for them to act on? Odds are low that a Seer would have dreamed of a villain on Night 1.

Mac Connington likes Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven and G55 the Innocent wildling's posts, but thinks Inzil of Tully's added little. Nerwen of Martell likes his post, thinks there's been too much lovers and Targaryen talk, and suggests that those talking about them are nefariously steering the conversation away from Lannisters. But...what else did people have to talk about then, other than that? They seem legitimate discussion topics.

Lommy of Baratheon goes over bear pros and cons and makes a point of being freaked out. Points out the worst case scenario, which does indeed sound very bad. I assume her figures are correct. Wants a focus on the wolves but hopes the wolves and bear will take care of each other. Her post looks OK and sensible but it also takes a slightly scolding tone that might be good cover for a Lannister. Then goes on to mention that Nerwen of Martell's post looks classicly wolfy but that at least it got conversation going. Nerwen of Martell then points out that wolves like nothing more than bear hunting. And she may well be right about that. It is a possibility that the bear and maiden would also follow that line of reasoning.

On the other hand, I disagree that bear discussion was a bad idea at that point of the Day. It wasn't going to divert attention away from Lannisters and at that stage I doubt it could help anyone catch the bear, so it wouldn't help the Lannisters even if they were among those talking about it. Though Nerwen of Martell made me a little suspicious of her at first, her later posts on page 1 look better.

Skip of an innocent house wanted to focus on the lions rather than the lovers. Then suggests that the Targaryen should reveal...Oh, okay, I'm beginning to see how he got the axe on Day 1.

Then Volo of Greyjoy suggests everyone revealing as the Targaryen. Don't think he was serious there.

Mac Connington fake reveals as the Targaryen...Okay, even to make a point in a large village, I'm not sure that was a good idea, and it does make me wonder if there are any benefits to a stunt like that for a bear or lion. Thinking about it more, I'd guess there are potential benefits there both for an innocent, a bear or a lion, so that doesn't really help. His points about the Targaryen otherwise look fine, and he's both a little suspicious of Nerwen of Martell and of Lommy of Baratheon for her level of suspicion against Nerwen. My gut tells me that Mac and Nerwen are unlikely to be Lannisters together.

Page 2 ...So many pages still to get through.

- Eomer of Stark agrees that the Targaryen should not reveal, and appears to joke about Lommy and Boro being lions.
- Volo of Greyjoy likes the cut of Mac Connington's jib, and also wants to forge an alliance with the lovers.
- Skip of an innocent house thought it wasn't crazy for the Targaryen to reveal and that the numbers favour it.

- Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven discusses the likely bear and maiden allegiance pattern. Thinks it's interesting that Lommy was panicked about double night kills but only wanted to focus on wolves, and is a little confused by Lommy's vote conspiracy suggestion. It's possible that if Lommy is a lover, that might have been enough for the lovers to want Wilwa out of the way. Although I doubt that they would have been able to guess she was the Three-Eyed Raven from that.

- WithDryden of Martell claims to start thinking maybe Skip is innocent. Suspicious of Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven for looking too helpful. Perhaps this could have encouraged the lovers to think of Wilwa as a potential Lannister.
- Kitanna the peasant at #47 is fairly clear and logical but in her replies to Wilwa doesn't make any new points, other than to emphasise concern about Night kills rather than (presumably) vote conspiracies.

- Lommy of Baratheon at #48 is puzzling in her bolding and italicising of her statement about possible vote ruling. Is that really something a villain would want to say? I'll try reading it each way. (1) an innocent who really is spooked by the situation. That's consistent with what I can see of her analysis of the stats, which frankly are rather concerning. (2) a lover putting out feelers to the Lannisters. Not, perhaps, particularly likely at that point of the game. I can't see that being a good move for them. (3) a Lannister putting out feelers for the lovers. Not as risky as it would be for a lover, but still risky. Lommy would have to be a very bold Lannister taking a risk on Day 1 like that.

That statement is something that would be likely to attract the attention of the Three-Eyed Crow, and the lovers and Lannisters would want to avoid that, plus they couldn't realistically have expected to get the Three-Eyed Crow on Night 2. So perhaps Lommy is more likely to be an innocent.

- Gil at #49 says that the lovers and lions are likely to go for each other. G55 the innocent wildling has a point later on that actually keeping the bear alive could be in the interests of the lions, and Wilwa the Three-Eyed Crow disagrees a little later saying that it depends on how the Lannisters play it. His reasoning at #57 looks clearer and better, though the sort of precision he's advocating is probably impossible. None of it really helps to assess his guilt or innocence.
- Wilwa at #50 says "One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden." - which perhaps might have been read by the bear as something like "Oof, it's hard for a lion to find a gifted in a big village like this". I'm thinking now that Wilwa most likely looked Lionish to the lovers and that's why she was killed.
- Inzil's remarks are short and circumspect.
- Rikae's "Duly noted..." at #56 gives me a bad feeling. But perhaps I'm just reading too much into it.
- Boro at #63 thinks lions will be laying low and only going for the lovers themselves if there's a direct threat. Decent reasoning. At a guess I would say his tone isn't lionish.
- Skip of an Innocent house votes Gil. His reasoning isn't too bad.
- Mac at #70 comes over as a little odd, in that he's saying that a ranger save of a revealed Targaryen in a hypothetical scenario would be a bad thing since it'd mean there wouldn't be two analysable lion kills. I suppose he has a partial point, but I don't really like this. He also has some suspicions of Kitanna, Inzil, and to an extent Lommy. I can see his reasoning for those.
- Rikae at #75 is definitely moving in on Skip. Would a lion be doing that this early? At #77 votes Mac, or is it a fake vote?

Page 3

- Lottie is in a hurry and votes for Skip. If she's lionish, she probably knew about Rikae's suspicions of him at #75 and might have found him a good bet to get axed. While criticising Skip for making an easy vote, she makes an easy vote for him herself. But hypocrisy doesn't by any means have to equal villainy, especially given that she was undoubtedly in a hurry. Other than that, her list of impressions about people's tones seems well thought out and in some ways aligns with my own. This confuses me and makes me think "ah, she's right, and thinking along sensible lines" but then, it should be easy for a clever lion to do that, shouldn't it? I'm a little worried, and I will definitely not allow Lottie to go under my radar.
- And Sally at #85 votes for Lottie based on the list, but apparently for the opposite reason to my concerns. I may be getting hypocritical myself in turn, but that makes me feel relatively okay about Sally.
- Boro votes Inzil. Doesn't give clear reasoning but implies that it's because he thinks lions would be laying low and being uncontroversial. This in line with what he said earlier, and makes sense. He could be a lion conveniently following the line of thought expressed by Mac and Lottie about Inzil, though.
- Wilwa feels good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Most likely, one of those was her dream. She lists some mild suspicions but the phrasing doesn't look likely.
- #94, only possible suspicion I see from G55 there is maybe of Mac.
- #98, Eomer's reasoning is probably right but doesn't give a lot of insight into him.
- #99 Kitanna votes Skip. She acknowledges that her reasoning is flimsy, but goes through it. It's not even bad reasoning as Day 1 goes, but she could just as easily be guilty as innocent.
- #100 Mac is so confusing. But that's not a bad strategy, especially for innocents on Day 1, so it's not necessarily suspicious.
- #105 Lommy's list seems reasonable enough. Points out that Skip is an easy vote, and of course she was right. Hard to draw any conclusions from this though.
- #107 G55 could have come over as Seerish there pretty easily, I think. But there are so many things she could have "dreamed" of that at this point it's likely futile to try to guess. But later in the game, there's a slim chance her list could have some use.
- Wilwa the Three-Eyed Crow and Inzil both vote Skip of an Innocent house.
- Rikae says "Something about Wilwa bothers me. She's reasonable enough, but she seems nervous". Interesting, and it probably shows at minimum that Rikae is a perceptive player. At maximum...would a lion point out that a player looked as if they were hiding something? Yes. But if she's a lion, she'd have to think that Wilwa had a non-seer role, since the lions didn't go for Wilwa.

- #117 G55 the Innocent wildling votes Mac. Says Skip voting "Seems too easy for... certain individuals." Who had voted Skip so far? Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, Inzil. Did she suspect any of these in her list at #107? ...No.

- #118 Nog defends Skip, and his reasoning is sound. Of course it would be easy for a lion to do that, especially at a point where Skip already had 4 votes.

Page 4/start of page 5 ...where my brain starts to shut down.

- #124, Greenie of Reed thinks Lommy and Mac are more chaotic than usual. Points out a possible "your side" lionish slip from Mac to Skip. Which, given that we know that Skip was innocent...is suspicious. But then, at this point, when Skip was definitely in danger, a very clever lion could have picked on that to try to deliver Mac to the axe the next Day.
- #128, Rikae votes Wilwa, citing the earlier concern that Wilwa had something to hide.
- Nog jumps on Mac's wording too, and Mac just says that it was just badly worded.
- Encaitare votes Nog, as she or he is unhappy about Nog's suspicion of G55 and quietness.
- Eönwë of Royce arrives. Votes Skip for the encouragement of Targaryen revealing. Hard to draw any conclusions from this, especially for a later arrival to the Day. He thinks that if Skip is a lion, Lottie is innocent. And suspects Mac, Rikae, Lommy and Gil each a little.
- #134, Volo doesn't like Eomer, G55 and Mac's phrasing.
- WithDryden/Lote suspects Mac and G55 and votes Mac.
- Greenie is worried about Lommy and Mac, and slightly about G55. She feels okay about Rikae and Volo. Nothing seems suspicious about her there.
- #138, Mac votes Inzil.
- #139, Nog thinks G55 and Mac not both lions and that there's at least one lion in the Skip voters.
- #140, Gil votes Boro
- #147, Lommy votes Wilwa, shortly after Volo voices suspicions of Wilwa. Nog follows up with suspicion of Wilwa, suggesting she's a lover.
- Eomer prefers Wilwa over Skip. Greenie prefers that too, but Mac over Wilwa.
- Greenie votes Mac. Nog votes Mac, and suggests he's a lover. Volo votes G55. Eomer votes Inzil.
Deadline.

This thing is going to give me a headache. So many votes, so many people. And I want to vote within the next half hour, because I need to sleep soon lest I just nod off. I lost track of things part way through page 4, and I need to look at that again and start to read what's been going on on Day 2, but this is my list of suspicions from before I lost track:

Suspicions:

Not a clue: Eönwë
Very fishy: Nobody, alas.
Medium fishy: Lottie, Inzil, Eomer, Nog,
Slightly fishy: Nerwen, Rikae, Mac, WithDryden, Greenie, Enca, Lommy
Neutral: Volo, Gil, Boro, Kitanna, Sally