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Coppermirror · 06-29-2014, 12:05 PM

Interactions with Maclion on Day 1

#27 - banters with Lommy and Boro. Likes Wilwa and G55, and is slightly suspicious of Inzil for lack of substance, but tempers that with saying Enca at least found it useful. This could be either a subtle lionish way of throwing suspicion on an innocent Inzil or a mild bit of lion-on-lion.
#38 - fake Targaryen reveal post. "while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it. So.. hmmmm..." Another hedged suspicion.
#41 - Eomer agrees with Mac that the Targaryen would be crazy to reveal that early. Not very relevant-looking.
#51 - Inzil to Mac: "Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. Then again, it might be more worrisome if you didn't fire a shot or two my way Day 1." Bantery on Inzil's side, and/or an overreaction to what isn't intense scrutiny. But I take it there's some Mac vs Inzil history there. It's hard to judge this. And he just rolls his eyes at Mac's Targaryen-declaration.
#52 - Boro glares at Mac, bantery. Doesn't look relevant.
#70 - Mac's "The numbers may be on your side" lionish slip response to Skip. Thinks Kitanna's statement about the lovers is suspicious. Points out Lommy's bolded italicised statement and finds it suspicious, but wonders "The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?". Well, he knows the answer to that one, whatever it is. The reasoning could be either that she is and he wants to take the heat off her, or that he knows she isn't.
#77 - a joking vote for Mac from Rikae, where she suggests he's a bear and winks. Jokes may just be jokes, but this still makes me wonder if she's got some special knowledge about lions or bears in this game. A later post (#86) suggests that a jokey Rikae usually means an innocent Rikae, but Maclion was the one who said it.
#80 - Mac responds to Rikae. Sighs and uses many a smiley re the joke vote. I don't think there's anything to learn from this post though.
#82 - Lottie's suspicion list. Of Mac, says "Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far".
#86 - Nog is the first person to point out that Mac's Targaryen fake reveal looks suspicious, although he can't see why anyone would want to do it. That would be a risky time for a Nog lion to point out a thing like that.
#96 - Mac's Day 1 suspicions list. The innocents in his list are all noted as people he feels good about or is not particularly concerned about or can't make anything of. On his fishy list are Inzil, Kitanna, and Boro.
#100 - changes his mind about Inzil, now says he looks innocent. Said jokingly.
#101 - Eomer's joking response to Mac's bear gag in the previous post. Can't really guess anything from this.
#105 - Lommy is baffled by Mac's apparently uncharacteristic chaotic behaviour.
#114 - Mac's joking response to Eomer. And says he's feeling better about Eomer and G55. Both of them had been on his no clue list earlier.
#123 - Rikae questions G55 the innocent's vote for Maclion. But her reasoning is sound, so it doesn't look either suspicious or non-suspicious.
#124 - Greenie points out some odd conflicting behaviour from Mac, and also points out the "your side" slip. This is makes Greenie look pretty good. I can't imagine a lion would want to point that out. He already had one vote and there were many votes left to be cast, albeit that Skip the innocent had already surged ahead with 4 votes by then. At #137 she pushes Mac to explain himself in response to his "Yikes, that was poorly worded by me" re #124. And she ends up voting Mac at #159. If she's a lion she was playing an incredibly bold game of lion-on-lion.
#130 - Nog finds the "your side" quote about Mac that Greenie pointed out to be interesting.
#131 - Mac notes that out of his top suspects the only one with a vote is Inzil, but that he doesn't feel "remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails". Says Kitanna or Boro would be a throwaway too, hedged with a "not that I feel strongly about them either".
#133 - Eonwe disagrees with Mac about how easy a surviving hunter's identity will be to establish. Doesn't seem relevant. Votes for Skip, but includes Mac on his list of four people who've said things he didn't like.
#135 - Wyth/Lote votes Mac. Chronologically it's the second vote for him. His post looks decent there. Doesn't mean he's not a lion for certain, but he's not looking bad.
#138 - Mac votes Inzil. It's the second vote for Inzil, made at a time where the largest votes were 5 for Skip and 2 for Mac. I don't think this clears Inzil. Mac himself at #131 said he didn't feel he could get an Inzil bandwagon rolling (implication that he'd like to), and he had said he disliked the Skipwagon, so at this point Inzil was his only vote choice.
#139 - Nog thinks that one but not both of G55 and Mac could be lions, and at that time would prefer to vote G55 of the two. It's hard to gauge Nog here.
#150 - Nog thinks that Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven's defence of Mac looks far fetched.
#152 - Greenie would prefer to vote Lommy or G55 over Mac because she wants to hear his response first. At #154 she would prefer Wilwa over Skip but Mac over Wilwa. Still looking pretty innocent there. Votes Mac at #159.
#157 - Nog wants to vote G55 for preference, but then Mac or Wilwa. At #161 he votes Mac. This doesn't make him look as good as it does Greenie, but it doesn't make him look bad.
#162 - Eomer is suspicious of the Mac voters (and names G55 and Wyth), and (jokingly?) suggests that maybe no lions were voting on that Day. With one minute to go, he votes Inzil at #166. At this point, Skip was on 5 votes, Mac on 4, and Inzil on 2.
Eomer's vote taking Inzil to 3. The only people yet to vote at that point were me and Nerwen, and people could have guessed neither were going to show up at that point, so Eomer's vote wasn't going to have much effect.

Interactions with Maclion on Day 2

#177 - Rikae thinks that if there's a bear hint in Wilwa's post, it's for Mac. But thinks that if he was a bear he wouldn't have been so against people looking for them, and that his "What's wrong with bears?" comment would be bold. She could be misdirecting here, but otherwise her comments about Mac look OK.
#179 - Mac looks at possible Wilwa dreams. Says that if she did dream of someone guilty, she hid it completely. Suggests that if she dreamed of an innocent it's one of: Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, Nerwen. Could be just a filler post, but he could have feared she'd be taken to have dreamed of him and tried misdirecting people. Or he could have been trying to make people think that a lion Boro, Rikae or Kitanna was dreamed innocent. Nerwen was not killed by lions.
#181 - Kitanna says of Mac, "I’m pretty sure his fake reveal means he’s guilty and trying to distract us or he’s a crazy ordo".
#183 - Rikae doesn't like Mac's dislike of talking about the lovers on Day 1, and implies that maybe he's the bear.
#184 - Inzil says he would have voted for Mac had he caught the "your side" slip.
#185 - Encaitaire agrees with Mac's point that Wilwa most likely dreamed of an innocent.
#186 - Kitanna: "I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac." and explains that his accusations of her steering the conversation towards the hunter/lovers is "not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it. "
#187 - Rikae agrees with Inzil that if the lions thought G55 was the hunter, Mac looks better for it. But that if they thought she was the seer he wouldn't.
#188 - Inzil thinks that "in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky" - too risky to kill G55 on Seer suspicion? Or, too risky for a lion/bear Mac to kill a hunter-G55?
#189 - Rikae clarifies and says she thinks it would be a good bet for someone other than Mac to kill a presumed hunter G55. OK, this makes sense. But...
#190 - Realises Inzil may have meant a Seer scenario, and clarifies that she doesn't think G55's comments about Mac looked Seerish and that it wouldn't be risky to kill her. Then says she's wary of Mac maybe being a lover, but wants to move on to lion catching.
#195 - Kitanna wonders why Mac was feeling better about Eomer in post #194.
#196: Eomer suggests that the Inn takes a chance on those who looked most suspicious on G55's list, Volo and Mac. Thinks she sounded most suspicious of Volo.
#197 - Mac's vote analysis of Day 1.
#200 - Rikae doesn't like Eomer's #196 plan, and thinks that G55's post looked just like run of the mill stuff.
#205 - Nog goes through possible suspicions on G55's list. Seems logical. If Nog's evil I can't see any hints to it there.
#206 - Mac analyses G55. Considers that might have been thought to have dreamed of Wyth or Volo but it's a stretch and "If the lions thought she was gifted, it must've simply been due to her being overly passionate". Also considers that G55's death might have been an attempt to frame him, but that Greenie or Nog would have been better choices for framing him. Thinks maybe she was a false-trail kill.

#209 - Wyth responds to Mac's suggestion that Wyth could be a lion, and suggests that Mac is deflecting suspicion onto someone who voted for him (Wyth).
#211 - Mac thinks Wyth is being very defensive, and says that now he does suspect him. This is making Wyth look on the innocent side more than not, though it's not conclusive.
#213 - Wyth explains this is the first time he's been accused. But is firm about Mac looking wolfy.
#226 - Kitanna thinks Mac looks somewhat innocent where G55 is concerned, and pretty good if the lions thought she was the hunter. But she's uneasy about his Wilwa interactions on lion/bear grounds. Hard to read her here. Says "And the defensiveness continues." about Wyth's post.
#238 - Lottie thinks that if Maclion is a Maclion, Inzil is likely to be one of his packmates, but perhaps not so much vice versa. This post looks sensible. However, she seems to have missed Mac at #131 saying "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all" which may have meant that Mac couldn't vote Skip. It was after Mac said this that Mac got his second vote (from Wyth)...and Skip got his 5th vote (from Eönwë). Lottie's post here might be innocent, but it might have been a lionish way of throwing suspicion on Inzil should Mac be killed.
#255 - Kitanna speculates about Mac voters.

Oookay, I'm going to have to go faster here.

#245 - Mac unhappy with Lottie not being happy about his reaction to Wyth. Also tries to explain his Inzil vote, and gets into a discussion with Lottie about that. Her reasoning looks okay there.
#262 - Eomer says "Mac seems innocent-ish to me (still)". Votes Inzil, leaves. I would say that if Eomer is a lion, Inzil is not. Still not feeling good about Eomer.
#265 - Lottie is saying now, contrary to what she said earlier, that if Inzil is a wolf, Mac should be looked at. If Inzil were to get lynched and turned out to be a wolf, I think Lottie would be looking non-liony. At first glance her comment looks good, but on a closer look, that could have been a backhanded way of her trying to say that Mac should not be looked at if Inzil turns out to not be a wolf.
#266 - Rikae's list post. Of Mac says "A bear! A bear! Seriously, though, I'm unsure about him."...which doesn't say a lot for either her guilt or innocence.
#269 - Lommy's list post. Says she can't read this new Mac.
#274 - Mac's list post. He's suspicious of Inzil and Wyth, and now also of Eomer. "Just going along with other people's suspicions here, I know, but he has been playing it safe." he says. Now...I do suspect Eomer, but right now I don't see a reason for Mac to suddenly suspect him there if Eomer is a lion. This makes me feel a little better about Eomer.

Both Rikae and Kitanna vote for Enca. #292 - Wyth now feeling okay about Mac? And...agh, okay, I'm too tired. I'm just going to have to stop the proper analysis here and just go on to the votes.

Nerwen's vote #1 for Mac looks great, but she's dead. Zil's second vote for Mac doesn't necessarily mean much on its own, since if guilty he may be too far locked into an argument with Mac. However it is interesting that Mac only gave his vote when Inzil already had 4 votes. Greenie and Nog are instrumental in bringing Mac up to 5 votes, equal with Inzil. Eönwë breaks the tie in favour of Mac being lynched. Those three are looking good, but I still wouldn't be incredibly surprised if one of them was a bold, clever lion.

Current suspicions list:

????: Enca, Kitanna, Sally, Gil
Medium fishy: Eomer, Lottie
Slightly fishy: Rikae, Inzil, Boro, Lommy
Neutral: Wyth/Lote, Nog, Eonwe
Looking good: Greenie

I'm going to take a look at Day 3 now and then take another look at Day 2's votes.

06-29-2014, 12:05 PM	#385
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	Interactions with Maclion on Day 1 #27 - banters with Lommy and Boro. Likes Wilwa and G55, and is slightly suspicious of Inzil for lack of substance, but tempers that with saying Enca at least found it useful. This could be either a subtle lionish way of throwing suspicion on an innocent Inzil or a mild bit of lion-on-lion. #38 - fake Targaryen reveal post. "while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it. So.. hmmmm..." Another hedged suspicion. #41 - Eomer agrees with Mac that the Targaryen would be crazy to reveal that early. Not very relevant-looking. #51 - Inzil to Mac: "Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. Then again, it might be more worrisome if you didn't fire a shot or two my way Day 1." Bantery on Inzil's side, and/or an overreaction to what isn't intense scrutiny. But I take it there's some Mac vs Inzil history there. It's hard to judge this. And he just rolls his eyes at Mac's Targaryen-declaration. #52 - Boro glares at Mac, bantery. Doesn't look relevant. #70 - Mac's "The numbers may be on your side" lionish slip response to Skip. Thinks Kitanna's statement about the lovers is suspicious. Points out Lommy's bolded italicised statement and finds it suspicious, but wonders "The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?". Well, he knows the answer to that one, whatever it is. The reasoning could be either that she is and he wants to take the heat off her, or that he knows she isn't. #77 - a joking vote for Mac from Rikae, where she suggests he's a bear and winks. Jokes may just be jokes, but this still makes me wonder if she's got some special knowledge about lions or bears in this game. A later post (#86) suggests that a jokey Rikae usually means an innocent Rikae, but Maclion was the one who said it. #80 - Mac responds to Rikae. Sighs and uses many a smiley re the joke vote. I don't think there's anything to learn from this post though. #82 - Lottie's suspicion list. Of Mac, says "Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far". #86 - Nog is the first person to point out that Mac's Targaryen fake reveal looks suspicious, although he can't see why anyone would want to do it. That would be a risky time for a Nog lion to point out a thing like that. #96 - Mac's Day 1 suspicions list. The innocents in his list are all noted as people he feels good about or is not particularly concerned about or can't make anything of. On his fishy list are Inzil, Kitanna, and Boro. #100 - changes his mind about Inzil, now says he looks innocent. Said jokingly. #101 - Eomer's joking response to Mac's bear gag in the previous post. Can't really guess anything from this. #105 - Lommy is baffled by Mac's apparently uncharacteristic chaotic behaviour. #114 - Mac's joking response to Eomer. And says he's feeling better about Eomer and G55. Both of them had been on his no clue list earlier. #123 - Rikae questions G55 the innocent's vote for Maclion. But her reasoning is sound, so it doesn't look either suspicious or non-suspicious. #124 - Greenie points out some odd conflicting behaviour from Mac, and also points out the "your side" slip. This is makes Greenie look pretty good. I can't imagine a lion would want to point that out. He already had one vote and there were many votes left to be cast, albeit that Skip the innocent had already surged ahead with 4 votes by then. At #137 she pushes Mac to explain himself in response to his "Yikes, that was poorly worded by me" re #124. And she ends up voting Mac at #159. If she's a lion she was playing an incredibly bold game of lion-on-lion. #130 - Nog finds the "your side" quote about Mac that Greenie pointed out to be interesting. #131 - Mac notes that out of his top suspects the only one with a vote is Inzil, but that he doesn't feel "remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails". Says Kitanna or Boro would be a throwaway too, hedged with a "not that I feel strongly about them either". #133 - Eonwe disagrees with Mac about how easy a surviving hunter's identity will be to establish. Doesn't seem relevant. Votes for Skip, but includes Mac on his list of four people who've said things he didn't like. #135 - Wyth/Lote votes Mac. Chronologically it's the second vote for him. His post looks decent there. Doesn't mean he's not a lion for certain, but he's not looking bad. #138 - Mac votes Inzil. It's the second vote for Inzil, made at a time where the largest votes were 5 for Skip and 2 for Mac. I don't think this clears Inzil. Mac himself at #131 said he didn't feel he could get an Inzil bandwagon rolling (implication that he'd like to), and he had said he disliked the Skipwagon, so at this point Inzil was his only vote choice. #139 - Nog thinks that one but not both of G55 and Mac could be lions, and at that time would prefer to vote G55 of the two. It's hard to gauge Nog here. #150 - Nog thinks that Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven's defence of Mac looks far fetched. #152 - Greenie would prefer to vote Lommy or G55 over Mac because she wants to hear his response first. At #154 she would prefer Wilwa over Skip but Mac over Wilwa. Still looking pretty innocent there. Votes Mac at #159. #157 - Nog wants to vote G55 for preference, but then Mac or Wilwa. At #161 he votes Mac. This doesn't make him look as good as it does Greenie, but it doesn't make him look bad. #162 - Eomer is suspicious of the Mac voters (and names G55 and Wyth), and (jokingly?) suggests that maybe no lions were voting on that Day. With one minute to go, he votes Inzil at #166. At this point, Skip was on 5 votes, Mac on 4, and Inzil on 2. Eomer's vote taking Inzil to 3. The only people yet to vote at that point were me and Nerwen, and people could have guessed neither were going to show up at that point, so Eomer's vote wasn't going to have much effect. Interactions with Maclion on Day 2 #177 - Rikae thinks that if there's a bear hint in Wilwa's post, it's for Mac. But thinks that if he was a bear he wouldn't have been so against people looking for them, and that his "What's wrong with bears?" comment would be bold. She could be misdirecting here, but otherwise her comments about Mac look OK. #179 - Mac looks at possible Wilwa dreams. Says that if she did dream of someone guilty, she hid it completely. Suggests that if she dreamed of an innocent it's one of: Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, Nerwen. Could be just a filler post, but he could have feared she'd be taken to have dreamed of him and tried misdirecting people. Or he could have been trying to make people think that a lion Boro, Rikae or Kitanna was dreamed innocent. Nerwen was not killed by lions. #181 - Kitanna says of Mac, "I’m pretty sure his fake reveal means he’s guilty and trying to distract us or he’s a crazy ordo". #183 - Rikae doesn't like Mac's dislike of talking about the lovers on Day 1, and implies that maybe he's the bear. #184 - Inzil says he would have voted for Mac had he caught the "your side" slip. #185 - Encaitaire agrees with Mac's point that Wilwa most likely dreamed of an innocent. #186 - Kitanna: "I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac." and explains that his accusations of her steering the conversation towards the hunter/lovers is "not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it. " #187 - Rikae agrees with Inzil that if the lions thought G55 was the hunter, Mac looks better for it. But that if they thought she was the seer he wouldn't. #188 - Inzil thinks that "in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky" - too risky to kill G55 on Seer suspicion? Or, too risky for a lion/bear Mac to kill a hunter-G55? #189 - Rikae clarifies and says she thinks it would be a good bet for someone other than Mac to kill a presumed hunter G55. OK, this makes sense. But... #190 - Realises Inzil may have meant a Seer scenario, and clarifies that she doesn't think G55's comments about Mac looked Seerish and that it wouldn't be risky to kill her. Then says she's wary of Mac maybe being a lover, but wants to move on to lion catching. #195 - Kitanna wonders why Mac was feeling better about Eomer in post #194. #196: Eomer suggests that the Inn takes a chance on those who looked most suspicious on G55's list, Volo and Mac. Thinks she sounded most suspicious of Volo. #197 - Mac's vote analysis of Day 1. #200 - Rikae doesn't like Eomer's #196 plan, and thinks that G55's post looked just like run of the mill stuff. #205 - Nog goes through possible suspicions on G55's list. Seems logical. If Nog's evil I can't see any hints to it there. #206 - Mac analyses G55. Considers that might have been thought to have dreamed of Wyth or Volo but it's a stretch and "If the lions thought she was gifted, it must've simply been due to her being overly passionate". Also considers that G55's death might have been an attempt to frame him, but that Greenie or Nog would have been better choices for framing him. Thinks maybe she was a false-trail kill. #209 - Wyth responds to Mac's suggestion that Wyth could be a lion, and suggests that Mac is deflecting suspicion onto someone who voted for him (Wyth). #211 - Mac thinks Wyth is being very defensive, and says that now he does suspect him. This is making Wyth look on the innocent side more than not, though it's not conclusive. #213 - Wyth explains this is the first time he's been accused. But is firm about Mac looking wolfy. #226 - Kitanna thinks Mac looks somewhat innocent where G55 is concerned, and pretty good if the lions thought she was the hunter. But she's uneasy about his Wilwa interactions on lion/bear grounds. Hard to read her here. Says "And the defensiveness continues." about Wyth's post. #238 - Lottie thinks that if Maclion is a Maclion, Inzil is likely to be one of his packmates, but perhaps not so much vice versa. This post looks sensible. However, she seems to have missed Mac at #131 saying "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all" which may have meant that Mac couldn't vote Skip. It was after Mac said this that Mac got his second vote (from Wyth)...and Skip got his 5th vote (from Eönwë). Lottie's post here might be innocent, but it might have been a lionish way of throwing suspicion on Inzil should Mac be killed. #255 - Kitanna speculates about Mac voters. Oookay, I'm going to have to go faster here. #245 - Mac unhappy with Lottie not being happy about his reaction to Wyth. Also tries to explain his Inzil vote, and gets into a discussion with Lottie about that. Her reasoning looks okay there. #262 - Eomer says "Mac seems innocent-ish to me (still)". Votes Inzil, leaves. I would say that if Eomer is a lion, Inzil is not. Still not feeling good about Eomer. #265 - Lottie is saying now, contrary to what she said earlier, that if Inzil is a wolf, Mac should be looked at. If Inzil were to get lynched and turned out to be a wolf, I think Lottie would be looking non-liony. At first glance her comment looks good, but on a closer look, that could have been a backhanded way of her trying to say that Mac should not be looked at if Inzil turns out to not be a wolf. #266 - Rikae's list post. Of Mac says "A bear! A bear! Seriously, though, I'm unsure about him."...which doesn't say a lot for either her guilt or innocence. #269 - Lommy's list post. Says she can't read this new Mac. #274 - Mac's list post. He's suspicious of Inzil and Wyth, and now also of Eomer. "Just going along with other people's suspicions here, I know, but he has been playing it safe." he says. Now...I do suspect Eomer, but right now I don't see a reason for Mac to suddenly suspect him there if Eomer is a lion. This makes me feel a little better about Eomer. Both Rikae and Kitanna vote for Enca. #292 - Wyth now feeling okay about Mac? And...agh, okay, I'm too tired. I'm just going to have to stop the proper analysis here and just go on to the votes. Nerwen's vote #1 for Mac looks great, but she's dead. Zil's second vote for Mac doesn't necessarily mean much on its own, since if guilty he may be too far locked into an argument with Mac. However it is interesting that Mac only gave his vote when Inzil already had 4 votes. Greenie and Nog are instrumental in bringing Mac up to 5 votes, equal with Inzil. Eönwë breaks the tie in favour of Mac being lynched. Those three are looking good, but I still wouldn't be incredibly surprised if one of them was a bold, clever lion. Current suspicions list: ????: Enca, Kitanna, Sally, Gil Medium fishy: Eomer, Lottie Slightly fishy: Rikae, Inzil, Boro, Lommy Neutral: Wyth/Lote, Nog, Eonwe Looking good: Greenie I'm going to take a look at Day 3 now and then take another look at Day 2's votes.