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Old 06-05-2015, 06:41 PM   #406
Firefoot
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,547
Firefoot has been trapped in the Barrow!
Are we quite certain, then, that Agan was the hunter, and not one of the three dead last night?

Also, at this point there is a 8.9% likelihood that all the Dead are innocents - so a 91.1% chance at least one wolf is dead, which I guess is encouraging... (assuming a random selection of innocent/wolf kills, and assuming the hunter is definitely dead, whether it's Agan or someone else - though I'd guess the Night extra kill was due to the special role). Also, I only got a B in statistics so let's say there's an 85% chance that this is correct.

The significance of this is that if either of the wolf packs is missing members, I would think they would be getting a bit nervous/desperate (depending on how many missing members...), not knowing whether the other pack is in similar shape. Could be telling toDay (for comparison, at the start of Day 2, there was a 51% all the people killed were innocent).

A look at the voting...

Lommy, Mac, and McCaber voted for Agan twice.

Eomer and Boro were the only two to vote for both Nog and Agan. Eomer is back to being a bit suspicious to me after voting late for both Nog and Agan without a lot of pre-existing suspicion - in fact, he didn't find Agan suspicious at all. This seems like a terrible strategy for a wolf though - might as well at least act like you thought they were suspicious, right?

I still think there's a solid possibility Mac was a wolf, so I'm happy enough with whoever offed him. Wondering if we should look for candidates among those who voted for him... which I guess is just me, morm, and Nerwen. Hmmm. Not knowing where the third kill came from makes that harder.

Last edited by Firefoot; 06-05-2015 at 07:52 PM. Reason: Typo
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