Are we quite certain, then, that
Agan was the hunter, and not one of the three dead last night?
Also, at this point there is a 8.9% likelihood that all the Dead are innocents - so a 91.1% chance at least one wolf is dead, which I guess is encouraging... (assuming a random selection of innocent/wolf kills, and assuming the hunter is definitely dead, whether it's
Agan or someone else - though I'd guess the Night extra kill was due to the special role). Also, I only got a B in statistics so let's say there's an 85% chance that this is correct.
The significance of this is that if either of the wolf packs is missing members, I would think they would be getting a bit nervous/desperate (depending on how many missing members...), not knowing whether the other pack is in similar shape. Could be telling toDay (for comparison, at the start of Day 2, there was a 51% all the people killed were innocent).
A look at the voting...
Lommy, Mac, and
McCaber voted for
Agan twice.
Eomer and
Boro were the only two to vote for both
Nog and
Agan.
Eomer is back to being a bit suspicious to me after voting late for both
Nog and
Agan without a lot of pre-existing suspicion - in fact, he didn't find
Agan suspicious at all. This seems like a terrible strategy for a wolf though - might as well at least act like you thought they were suspicious, right?
I still think there's a solid possibility
Mac was a wolf, so I'm happy enough with whoever offed him. Wondering if we should look for candidates among those who voted for him... which I guess is just me,
morm, and
Nerwen. Hmmm. Not knowing where the third kill came from makes that harder.