[Corsair_Caruso]

Well, hello, everyone! Sorry for my long absence; doctoral school can be a bit life-consuming. :/

As for the idea of no Ring, I had explored a thought such as this some time ago, in a "What if" that involved a marriage between Celebrimbor and Celebrian in Eregion, and Galadriel remaining in Eregion long enough to convince Celebrimbor not to get involved with Annatar in the first place. But, setting that aside...

So, I think we need a "why" before we figure out how it would have changed things. The circumstances greatly effect the outcome.

Let's say, for example, that Celebrimbor was simply a better judge of character and took after Gil-galad and Elrond when they told the ostensible "Annatar" to shove off. Sauron's plan to seduce the Elves to his service has crashed and burned. This is going to **** him off something awful, as he really, REALLY wanted to make use of the Noldor, and now they're behind his reach in that fashion. His next best strategy, assuming he still wants them in his service at all, is to enslave them and, failing that, destroy them all and use human servants or other, less savory characters, to fulfill his dark plans for Endor.

This means war, most likely. Thus, we might find that the War of the Elves and Sauron comes a little sooner than in the "Original Time Line." However, Sauron will not have spent hundreds of years in Eregion and Ost-in-Edhil, which presumably gave him some inside information that he likely used to his advantage in the war. On the other hand, the Noldor of Eregion also don't have the knowledge of Sauron's impending betrayal via their Ring-connection to his. For all they know Annatar is just some creepy dude that rubbed them the wrong way, with no connection to Sauron. In fact, I don't even know if Sauron was on anyone's radar at this point in the Second Age, period. So, everyone is going into this war with less information, but Sauron has the benefit of more surprise on his side, being a generally unknown factor at this point, aside from their knowledge of him from the First Age. This is a whole different ball game, however.

Now, as for Sauron himself, I'm of the opinion that the forging of the One Ring, while making him vulnerable, also made him more powerful while the Ring was in his possession. The Rings with which Sauron was involved in the making, including his own, all increased the natural powers of the bearers, and I'm of the opinion that the One Ring was no different. Yes, it was made to be so potent so as to control the other 19, but I still believe that part of its basic function was also to increase Sauron's own potency of will, power, etc...

On the other hand, he no longer has the Achilles Heel. He can still be wounded and slain by warriors of sufficient power, but not destroyed utterly beyond all hope of eventual repair. I believe that if Sauron was faced by sufficiently potent warriors in the War of the Elves and Sauron, he could be destroyed (as can most Umaiar). He would regenerate in a few centuries to a thousand years, or so, but during that time there would be no major lieutenant (as far as we know) who could hold the empire together while Sauron put himself back together. Sauron could do it when he finally reappeared, but we would have centuries of no Dark Lord.

What kind of consequences would this have on Middle-earth? First of all, no Ulairi. There are some that believe that early shadow began to fall on Númenor because one of the three Numenorean Ringwraiths spent time in his homeland sowing discord and dissent. This could have been especially damaging to the Royal Line if he were a prince of the royal house. Perhaps the early murmurings and questions of rebellion against the Ban were insitigated by a Numenorean Ringbearer before he went wraith.

That is all speculation, however. What we do know is that, if Sauron is destroyed, the provocation of Ar-Pharazôn first against Sauron's overlordship of Endor, and then by Sauron against the Valar, would not occur as in the OTL. Heck, without Sauron's influence on the world, the entire line of Númenor might have turned out differently, and the analogue to Prince Pharazôn In This Time Line may not have tried to seize power. (We may not even have the same people born, period, so, who knows?)

So, assuming a destroyed Sauron, this means a Númenor that either doesn't fall under the shadow, or (more likely) is much less influenced by the shadow and the influence occurs much later in history. This means that there will be fewer Numenorean colonies in Middle-earth, as permanent settlements were, in part, a symptom of rebellion against the Ban of the Valar. Indigenous kingdoms may have risen up in their place, with more guidance from Númenor, maybe client Kingdoms of Middle-men, especially in what would have become Gondor and southern Arnor. Again, lots of speculation.

Eventually, however, Sauron would have shown up again, and perhaps his attention would have turned, as it did OTL, to the Númenoreans, who onc again would have become the dominant power east of the Pelori. While the Annatar guise may not have worked on the Noldor, who is to say it wouldn't on Men, who have much less acute senses than the Eldar. He needn't take the same form, but even if he did, would anyone associate Annatar with Sauron at this point? Perhaps, but not necessarily. The fall might go differently, take longer, and have to work through different people, but I think he could do to the Númenoreans as he did OTL, or perhaps have caused a civil war, or simply a break against the Eldar and sent them against Gil-galad. There are lots of possibilities.

This has all assumed Sauron's destruction in the earlier War. This is far from assured, and if he DID lose, but survive, then his wrath would be all the greater, but without the humbling experience of his destruction to add to his caution. If the Númenoreans were involved as in OTL, then his attention is drawn to them, if not, then he remains fixed on Middle-earth, most likely.

Now, it was brought up above that without the Ring of Durin pushing the Longbeards in later centuries to delve too greedily and too deep, that Khazad-dum would not be lost. I think this is a strong possibility, but I think we need to consider more immediate consequences.

The Noldor of Eregion and the Longbeards of Khazad-dum had a friendship the likes of which was unheard of between Elves and Dwarves. The Doors of Durin were just one example of the marvels of joint Elven-Dwarven lore and craft. Imagine if that relationship had been allowed to flourish? What kind of cultural growth, new advances in craft, in art, in new ideas and forms of expression could have come from the alliance of Eregion and Khazad-dum? I think that Celebrimbor and the Longbeards would have enriched one another and made one another much stronger. If this is the case, Sauron might have come across a much stronger Eregion later on, one which had a strong alliance with the mightiest Dwarven stronghold in Arda's history, which had likewise been enriched and strengthened over the centuries without a a Dark Lord's interference. In a way, I mourn for what could have been.