[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

One thing I will point out. This decrease in lifespan effected all the Dúnedain, even those in the South although at one point it seemed the South had the edge in longevity.

Tarondor b. 1577 lived for 221 years.
Telumehtur b. 1632 lived for 218 years
Narmacil ll b. 1684 lived for 172 years, died in battle against the Wainriders beyond Anduin.
Calimehtar b. 1736 lived for 200 years
Ondoher b. 1787 lived for 157 years, died in battle with both his sons against the Wainrider in a rout.
Eärnil ll b. 1883 lived for 160 years
Eärnur b. 1928 lived for 122 years, left the kingdom in the hands of the Stewards after taking up the Witch-king's challenge.

I agree with no legit heir in the South Arvedui could possibly have won over the Dúnedain in the South although they seemed to be slightly prejudiced against the Dúnedain in the North because of the events that had occured there. Eärnil ll did not hold the same view as the others.

"Eärnil was a wise man, and not arrogant, even if, as to most men in Gondor, the realm in Arthedain seemed a small thing, for all the lineage of its lords." [Appendix A: Gondor and the Heirs of Anárion]

What is somewhat confounding is that even 200 years later there were still Dúnedain living to 150 years of age who were not even of the royal line. So I wonder why the last 2 kings, well Eärnil to be exact, only lived to be 160. Three hundred fifty-two years later Hador dies at the age of 150.

That certainly is an interesting point you bring up, and counter to my preconceptions about the two royal lines, though I had never actually taken the time to compare them in this way.

Originally Posted by Belegorn

If Arvedui had succeeded, however, perhaps Eärnur lives or not. I do not think Arvedui would allow him to accept the challenge of the Witch-king anyways.

Well, in the above quote I was really referring to Arvedui being refused the first time, as per OTL, then surviving his time in the Forodwaith by not taking the ship of Círdan, which subsequently sank, which I believe may have been part of the "less hopeful choice" that he had to make. Only then would he have stuck around as King of Arthedain/Arnor long enough to outlive Ëarnil and Ëarnur.

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I think Arvedui had a better shot to take the crown when there were no heirs of Anárion left to take that crown than when there were still claimants around to take up the mantle. If this was successful the North would have already been lost and there are a great many who look down on the North because of their weakness already. The Stewards it seems had hardened their hearts against their kin in the North, but at the same time it is said of the Dúnedain in the South, "many in Gondor still believed that a king would indeed return in some time to come; and some remembered the ancient line of the North, which it was rumoured still lived on in the shadows." [Appendix A: The Stewards] Arvedui would not have ful-filled the prophecy if this were the case since the North was already sacked. Perhaps they could rebuild but Sauron and his minions were still around.

Hmmm... I hadn't thought of it that way, but I don't think him becoming King after the fall of Arthedain precludes his fulfillment of the prophecy, which reads thus.

"Arvedui you shall call him, for he will be the last in Arthedain. Though a choice will come to the Dúnedain, and if they take the one that seems less hopeful, then your son will change his name and become king of a great realm. If not, then much sorrow and many lives of men shall pass, until the Dúnedain arise and are united again."
― Appendix A

So, here, he remains the last King in Arthedain. I admit, it does seem that the less hopeful choice does, in fact, seem to come to the Dunedain as a whole (indicating the Council of Gondor representing the Dunedain of the south) and not to Arvedui specifically, so that might be a hole in my theory, but then, it isn't conclusive, and Arvedui wasn't the only Dunadan in the Forodwaith that escaped Arthedain's destruction. Arthedain falls, but then if Aragorn fulfilled the last part of the prophecy by uniting the Dúnedain thousands of years after Arthedain and Arnor had fallen, I don't see why Arvedui couldnt have fulfilled the prophecy by uniting the Dúnedain (whether or not the kingdom survived, a number of its people did) a few decades later. As King of Gondor, Arvedui (or whatever his new name would have been after he was named King of Gondor after the death of Ëarnur) could have repopulated Arnor with colonists from the south, to augment the remaining northern population. Sure, there was some prejudice against the north, but I'm sure if he looked through the kingdom he could have found a decently sized group to act as a core population, and would send forth the necessary armies to protect them as well.

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

The relatively long lifespan of the Steward Hador stands out and i have often wondered about that. My view is that it may be an abberation and not indicative of the general life span of the numenorean nobility of that time. The stewards during the watchful Peace have, in general, a lifespan between circa 107 (Dior) to 130 years (Belegorn). Hadors son Barahir follows this trend with a lifespan of 122 years. After the end of the watchful Peace the lifespan begins to further decrease, Denethor I lives for only 102 years (a new low, maybe the shock of Saurons return and the sudden invasion of Ithilien shortened his life?). Without going into a lot of statistics that would only bore everyone: interestingly the kings of Gondor have, at least for the first 1800 years or so of the third Age, a remarkably longer lifespan than the Kings of Arnor and later Arthedain, only the later King Earnil has a comparable relatively short lifespan of "only" 160 years ... very strange. What could be the reasons for this difference? Its not a fluke, its consistent: all the kings of Gondor (except for the last two and those slain in battle) live for circa 20-40 years longer than their northern counterparts.

The only thing I can think of is that whatever grace the Valar bestowed upon the House of Elendil seems to have dwindled more quickly in the north, evidenced not only by shorter lifespans, but also their more ruinous infighting, etc... than in the south. It's not really an answer, and even I don't know if I buy it, but it's all that I can think of at the moment. I'm going to spend some time with the lists of Kings and come back with a more thought out response.