[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have been re-reading the votes from yesterDay. I kinda wanted to look at each vote and consider what it would mean if the vote in question always came from a Wolf, how likely it is, and such. (Of course, the reality is more complicated, as there are four Wolves, and we don't know whether Mac isn't one of them. But we deal with what we can. One thing at a time.)

Lommy->Mac - Lommy's vote came early and started a bandwagon for a person who had gained a lot of talk in the village that Day and it was probable he would get votes. If Mac is innocent, then it's a simple matter of Wolf starting a bandwagon against an innocent. If Mac is guilty, it makes Lommy look better, even though even in such a case a Wolfmmy could also have easily hidden her vote for a fellow Wolf among a bandwagon that may not have necessarily succeeded.

Kath->Zil - kind of a similar case (except the bandwagon got no continuation. There certainly was potential for it, however. But for Mac, people like Greenie had been voicing their suspicion and possibility to vote, unlike here).

Lhuna->Lommy - This is interesting but requires already a lot of speculation (entering territory we know little of: everything would depend whether Mac is a Wolf, whether Lommy is a Wolf, etc etc). Could look into it, but as stand-alone, hard to say anything.

Mac->Lommy 2. Kind of a normal retaliation. Of course also possible place for safe Wolf-on-Wolf. But again, a lot would depend on whether yesterDay happened to be bandwagons for two Wolves. I will try to limit this to the "hard data", otherwise we could just as well close shop.

QT->Brinniel. I said something about it yesterDay. It could have easily turned into a bandwagon, the fact that it didn't I take partly on myself, because I considered it and then opted for Hui, which drew other people.

Greenie->Mac 2. Again, see Lommy. Note: she considered Brinniel equally much but opted for Mac (Greenie, why did you choose Mac over Brinn in the end?)

Legate-> Hui and here it starts, from this moment, there is a bandwagon for a known Wolf. It should be noted however that this was, preceded by a lengthy debate - at this point, I assumed at least two other people to vote for Hui as well (interestingly, that was Kit and Lottie, but also Boro who later turned absolutely away from it. Boro, could tell what led you to it?).
I'll actually quote my post there:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yeah, that was me. Mac then spoke about it later (another of the posts of his that piqued my interest - for a different reason, mostly because he suddenly was in accord with many of my own thoughts), but he has already cast his vote.

But I may go for it - or Lottie could be another option.

By the way this post of mine crossposted with Lottie who also said she would go for Hui.

Hui->Mac 3. I consider this important because Hui could have picked other ways to save himself (like go for Brinn or push for whatever else was in the air). First thought is of course that Mac is therefore innocent.

Rune->Lottie. Now depending on the context this could be anything: a throwaway, likely though not an attempt to save a packmate (too little momentum already and stronger bandwagons elsewhere). It looks mostly like an innocent going stubbornly after his own.

It swung literally when Kit voted Hui (2)(I didn't realise it at that time, but it totally did). Now we know both their roles, so nothing more to add to this.

Ka->Lottie 2 created the possibility of a bandwagon that never was. One could analyse this vote - but as of now, I don't have the strength. By this point, Lottie was still "leaning towards voting Huinesoron" and Mac was still one vote ahead (so, two would be needed to make Hui lead).

Then Pitch voted Hui (3), and that was the second moment. Pitch's vote, to me, stands as the "clearest" - again provided Mac isn't a Wolf too. Or more like, if all other options weren't wolves, because there would still have been ways to vote somebody third.

Lottie->Hui 4. I was originally rather suspicious about Lottie's vote yesterDay and basically would echo Rune's misgivings about her toDay (her post toDay with the vote list that really looked like she arbitrarily drew the line of "good votes" after herself). But on re-read of the actual voting, the way the voting went makes me feel better about her. She voted Hui after some deliberation. There was some three minute pause between Pitch's and her vote, and it was Lottie who swung the vote towards Hui. Would a Wolf (even if we discount Macwolf possibility) do that? Well, could - to exonerate themselves. A Lothwolf could have fatalistically cast her vote - especially after she's been talking about it as option before - and waited to see what happened. She was also gaining votes herself, so who knows. But it was a very well-placed vote and she had been talking about it before, that's for sure.

Sally->Mac 4. Sally's vote could look possibly the worst alone (again, unless Mac is a Wolf too), she's been steering clear of Hui and raising the bar that allowed Macwagon to make a comeback. But then again: she was following her original suspicion, and obviously no reason to switch to Hui. Also it would be a very blunt action to save a packmate, let's not forget that.

Zil->Mac 5, on the other hand, voted Mac to the lead... "because he distrusted Lottie and Pitch"? I know you mentioned that, but specifically here, what did you mean by it? Again, otherwise, also would be rather blunt action to try to save Hui... But these things are all hard to judge.

Some remarks about voting intentions came in between those that deserve mention.

Brinn said at this point that she had wanted to vote Zil but would rather see Hui lynched over Mac. That leans better - again, unless Mac is also a Wolf.

Eönwë seemed to be waiting and waiting just like the Day before - something I took for potential calculated Wolfism.

Lalaith -> Hui 5 because she trusted Kit - that's kinda straightforward. More importantly, she clearly did so when Mac was in the lead, but also more people (Brinn) were still to vote and it looked like they would go for Hui. It may have been a safe time to seal a packmate's fate and make herself look better. But overall that vote makes me feel better of her.

Boro->Mac 5 - I need to take a look at what Boro said about Hui altogether. His vote for Mac crossed and happened just when Hui was already in the lead, so it didn't change anything. I'm now kinda leaning not to give much meaning to this vote. But I really want to see what he said about Hui.

Eönwë's final vote (for Hui) was kinda inconsequential whichever role he has, could have gone either way. Perhaps as a Wolf he would have been more proactive... but again: this all not considering the option of Macwolf.

Shasta (for Mac, for symmetry) was the same and did nothing. Both him and Steve were in the position to move in, but as Wolves would have had the dilemma: do a blunt "save a fellow" move, or put a nail in his coffin? They opted for neither, in a sense. In any case, they opted for not actively saving him, that's for sure. I'm not going to suspect them just based on this.

Conclusion? Well, there are still unknowns in the whole thing. But this could help looking from some perspectives...

And I basically crossposted with everything, I'm sure, but let's see.