[A Little Green]

Okay so further proof of my utter cluelessness in this game – yesterDay I developed a theory that maybe Mac’s suicidal tendencies were due to him being the Hunter who had pegged a wolf and wanted to be offed. Looks like it’s time for another serious rethink.

Regarding the Legate kill, I think it’s possible he was picked just because more or less everyone agreed he was innocent. That said, I don’t think wolves can ever afford to kill someone just for that when there’s a Seer still on the loose. Our Seer will have had four dreams by now. Granted, some of those s/he dreamed may have died already, but even so, it’s a growing risk for the pack and I don’t think they can entirely ignore it. In light of that, this quote from Legate struck me -

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, one thing is (nearly?) for sure - the votes in Sallywagon can't all come from Wolves. (I mean technically... that would be super bold... but probably they wouldn't yet do something like that! Besides if it was these four, then they'd have no reason to.)

Could this have been a possible reason why Legate was killed? This could have looked like a slip from a Seer-Legate who knew Sally wasn’t a wolf.

Originally Posted by Inzil

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

++Brinn

For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us.

Do the same, vote for someone else, or me,

I thought this was noteworthy. While I agree that Brinn still merits looking at (I’m not comfortable with the free-ish pass she is getting lately), Inzil effectively going “que sera sera, lynch me if you like” rubs me the wrong way. Could be Wolfziladun trying a bit too hard not to appear defensive – especially in comparison to Sally, who was being suspected for similar reasons and was definitely acting defensive.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Btw what I just said about self-exoneration and calculated votes also applies to Eönwë's reaction to me this morning. "I drove the last nail into Huiwolf's coffin, how dare you suspect me?" But you had to vote at a point when your vote would likely be decisive, and if you knew that Mac would come up innocent if lynched, voting Hui was your only viable option. 'looks like it's going to have to be...' = 'I don't like it, but I have no choice'?

I’ve been inclined to think Eonwe rather innocent than not so far, but this is a good point.

Originally Posted by Mac

Bring the butter, my body is ready!

Originally Posted by Boro

++Sally

Really don't like the idea of a panic bandwagon against me. If you're the hunter, happy killing.

If you're a wolf, thanks for giving me 500 heart attacks, but I'd consider us even considering the trick I pulled on you previously.

Originally Posted by Kath

Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.

I agree with Kath here – this was strange. Boro does seem more than a little paranoid here, essentially voting Sally to prevent a panic bandwagon against himself even though he didn’t look like a very likely lynch candidate at this point. Mind you, going after people who seem “paranoid” hasn’t served me very well in this game

Originally Posted by Boro

1. Inzil I need to get a better read on, but there's a lot to be answered for with your defense yesterday. I never pegged you as a "roll over" type, until yesterday

2. Can we trust the QT now? Please. But I swear if they give us Brinn again I'm going to lose it.

2. 3/4ths of you are as suspicious as suspicion can be.

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'

Hm. I agree with 1, and with that Lhuna deserves a closer look and Inzil is a very possible wolf, but the rest of this I either disagree with or find fishy or both. Regarding the QT – yes, we can trust that the QT vote is benign; but no, we can’t trust that it’s any more likely to be correct than that of any other innocent, non-Seer person. Following the QT’s lead would give a very easy alibi for a wolf to vote for an innocent without raising too many eyebrows, so no, even with an innocent-majority QT I don’t really trust anyone who places too much weight on what the QT decide.

Regarding Lottie – that last point is off. Regardless of Lottie’s role, it would have been in her interest to try to convince Sally to change her pick. I’d have been stupefied if she hadn’t tried. Regarding Inzil – while I agree that he is one of the most suspicious people in this village, I think it would be very convenient for a Borowolf to say so if they were fellows. Inzil is a fairly possible lynchee either toDay or some other day soon, so an easy candidate for wolf-on-wolf bussing. Especially for a fellow who, like him, voted for Mac in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.

Despite my general dislike for statements that start with "if I was a wolf", Lottie makes a good point here – the wolves would have known Sally’s claim was genuine, and a wolf thinking they were under fire from the Hunter would have had a motive to try and lynch someone else.

Originally Posted by Lommy

WELLLlllllllll I got what I wanted...

...but it turned out not to be what I wanted after all. I have gone through a full cycle of *despairing laughter* -> what use is logic in werewolf when it's always wrong -> I should really have been the cobbler -> "hey at least I won't have to wonder about Mac and Sally for the rest of the game" overNight and now I'm trying to recover and be useful toDay. I mean what else can you do?

But yes, looks like yesterDay wasn't my brightest moment. Nor the Day before... But I can hardly do worse toDay - unless I decide to vote the seer and press for their lynch.

This makes me feel somewhat better about Lommy – though I might be biased since I’ve been wrong in much the same way about much the same people, so I can kind of see how that’s entirely possible.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

This was my first impression, too. I could see a Lommywolf voting for Sally before the reveal, then consciously pushing for a Sally lynch regardless; but Lommy’s bloodlust (I love this mental image btw!) was a bit too open for this read to seem plausible for me. I think a Lommywolf would have made the same arguments for a Sally lynch after the reveal, but made them in a way that looked more balanced and reasonable rather than frantic and bloodlusty.

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta also absolutely not believing sally. But he and Lommy have very different opinions on how to go about this. Lommy feels lynching sally either rids the village of a wolf pretending to be the Hunter, or means the Hunter can use their power and hopefully catch a wolf. Shasta feels it should be left to the Night. I think Shasta's version is safer for the village. Lommy's is high risk which she did admit herself, but felt it was early enough in the game that losing an innocent wouldn't be so bad. In terms of numbers, perhaps she's right, but I still think leaving the Hunter to the Night would have been better. Especially as if the Hunter was killed at night, and took down an innocent, then at least in the Day there might have been a chance of lynching a wolf, and so it would have been one wolf and two innocents dead, rather than now what we have with three innocents dead.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. But I'm certainly not a wolf.

Regarding this whole issue – I think whether or not to lynch a self-proclaimed Hunter is very much a question of playing style and strategy, and in itself doesn’t give us much about a player’s alignment. Lommy’s explanation here sounds like something she would think regardless of role. The only bit rubbing me the wrong way is the last bit. “I’m certainly not a wolf” won’t convince anyone, even if true.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim.

I think Lommy is making sense here, too.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Since I suspect both Zil and Lommy, I'm very inclined to see Zil's attack on Lommy toDay as a way to distance them from each other. It's only a matter of time before Zil gets quarantined (and rightly so, IMO - he's been suspicious throughout), and it might be enough to make her look better in hindsight (after all, it seems bold for a wolf to go after one of their own so strongly and before anyone else, right?). On the other hand, if Lommy is lynched toDay, then it looks like Zil spearheaded the attack, so it makes him look good in retrospect.

Maybe my judgement is clouded because I'm already convinced that Zil is evil and almost convinced that Lommy is too, but that's the feeling I'm getting here.

Hm. Definitely a possibility – if Lommy is a wolf, the pack would have been prepared for her to be under fire toDay for her role in lynching Sally. That said, the wolves would have been prepared for this even if Lommy isn’t one of them. Inzil starting the Day with a straight-up case against Lommy looks somewhat rehearsed, like something he (or his pack) had decided to go for in advance. And even if Lommy is innocent, it makes sense for Inzil to be the one of the pack to go most heavily after her – as he’s one of the most suspected people around, him being implicated in an orchestrated lynch of innocent Lommy wouldn’t really matter that much. I could see him and his pack deciding that he’s pretty much a goner but at least he could try to stick around for one more Day by getting Lommy lynched first.

I want to have another look at Legate's posts at some point to check for possible "Seer clues", as well as another look at a few players we haven't really focused on. It's entirely possible we're dealing with a wolf pack of, say, THE Ka, Kath, Rune and Lalaith, happily watching from the sidelines as louder and more chaotic players lynch each other.