[A Little Green]

I had a new look at everyone overNight based on their interactions with our two known wolves. (I actually made a colour-coded spreadsheet. No, I don’t have a life.) Based on this, I still haven’t seen anything to make me think better of Inzil, but I’m now also having serious misgivings about THE Ka and Kath, and reconsidering how much to trust Shasta. It’s past bedtime for me, but here’s the whole thing -

Lottie
Very unlikely packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. On D1 Lottie vocally agrees with Huin several times and points this out herself; on D2 votes to lynch Huin at a crucial moment. These don't look like packmate behaviour even taken separately, let alone as a combination. With Lhuna it’s a little more complicated. D1 Lottie says she won't vote for Lhuna. On D2 she suspects Lhuna for discussing Kitanna but later forgets to suspect her for it. Mostly what makes her look innocent though is when Pitch calls her out on omitting Lhuna she is open about her biased frame of mind that is due to having no prior suspicion of Lhuna. If Lottie and Lhuna are packmates, this is pretty brazen. D3 she puts Lhuna under "feel nothing about", D4 under "dubious"; D4 Lhuna says Lottie is likely innocent, and Lottie votes for Boro which is consistent with her suspicions at the time so doesn't give us much.

Pitchwife
Unlikely packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. As said before, Huin’s insistent focus on the GLP and particularly Pitch’s role in it makes them an unlikely pair. Again, interactions with Lhuna are less conclusive. On D1 Pitch puts Lhuna in "don't know yet" category. D2 he points out Lottie's omission of Lhuna in discussing who is incriminated by discussing Kitanna – this would be such an indirect way to wolf-on-wolf as not to earn him many brownie points, and makes me think them less likely fellows. D4 Lhuna says he is likely innocent, while he says Lhuna is a "slippery fish". He votes for Eonwe after QT vote for Lhuna, which is again consistent with his previous suspicions so doesn't tell us much.

Rune
Very possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. Barely interacts with Huin. With Lhuna, Rune doesn’t suspect her on D1-2 and even slightly defends her on D1. Meanwhile, Lhuna barely mentions him until listing him under “should look more closely” on D4 and voicing concern that he could be a submarine wolf. More interestingly, Lhuna vocally disagrees with Lommy’s conclusion that the Legate kill makes Rune look innocent; this makes me think them unlikely packmates, since if the village finds that good a reason to think a Runewolf innocent, undermining it on purpose seems odd. At the end of the Day, Rune says he would like to have a better look before voting Lhuna and won't just follow QT’s lead, and goes on to vote Eonwe. This is consistent with both his earlier suspicions and his earlier independent voting behaviour, and doesn’t seem too alarming.

Boro
Possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. This was a mess. Huin light-suspects Boro; on D2 Boro doesn't want to vote for Huin and votes for Mac at a crucial moment instead. On D2 Boro defends Lommy against Lhuna and doesn’t like Lhuna’s vote for Lommy. He flipflops pretty impressively on Lhuna during that day, saying he is wary of her suspicions but "overall feeling good", then later "perturbed" by her but uncomfortable voting for her since she is no longer around. On D3 he is still not comfortable with the Lommy vote and says he'll vote for Inzil or Lhuna. On D4 he speculates on a Lhuna-Lottie-Inzil pack, is first to pre-vote Lhuna but then ends up voting for Eonwe after Lhuna has a comfortable lead. I presume this was to keep another viable candidate in the voting in order to flush out potential wolves trying to save a packmate, and in my opinion makes him look better. Meanwhile, Lhuna somewhat suspects Boro from D2 onwards but doesn't act on it, which is fishy.

Lommy
Possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. As discussed ad nauseam before, Lommy and Huin mutually suspected each other at a level that would be just about comfortable for wolf-on-wolf. However, the interactions between Lommy and Lhuna mostly don’t look packmatey to me. D1-2 Lommy finds Lhuna innocent and doesn't want to lynch her. Then D2 Lhuna votes for Lommy with barely a reason, which would be odd for wolf-on-wolf – surely if she wanted to make herself look better by wolf-on-wolfing she’d try to come up with a reason for it? After this Lommy freaks out about Lhuna’s throwaway comment on bandwagons in a way I don’t think she would if it was her packmate wolf-on-wolf voting her out of the blue. D3 Lommy points out how Lhuna noticing Huin's slip would be perfectly plausible for packmates, which I’m not sure their packmate would be in a hurry to point out as, in retrospect, it was a fairly strong argument against a wolf who wasn’t that much suspected at the time – and especially as Lommy herself said she only “low key suspected” Lhuna. If she actually wanted to make herself look better by bussing a packmate, handing out a solid argument for ammunition yet keeping away from it herself doesn’t strike me as the best way to do it. D4 they suspect each other and Lommy is fourth to vote for Lhuna. The vote placement was arguably one of the most crucial ones, but then, if Lommy is a wolf after all, she badly needed something to make herself look better. If she judged Lhuna to be a goner, this would have been a great way to slither back into the village’s good books.

Brinn
Somewhat possible packmate for both. With Huin it’s inconclusive: on D1 Huin vocally defends Brinn and votes to save her; on D2 Brinn votes for Huin. Could be packmates, with Brinn voting for Huin on D2 in an attempt to distance herself from him; or could be Huinwolf trying to buddy up to an innocent Brinn. With Lhuna things are a bit more straightforward but equally inconclusive. They basically suspect each other since D2. Lhuna speculates about a Brinn-Huin wolf pair, which would be pretty evil if Brinn and Huin really were her packmates – though admittedly this theory was pretty obvious at the time and had been mentioned by others before Lhuna. On D3 Brinn feels worse about Lhuna, does an analysis and finds her suspicious but doesn't consider voting her as she hasn't been around; on D4 Lhuna has downgraded Brinn to a "should look more closely" -category, while Brinn is the seventh to vote for Lhuna. I don’t think this vote tells us much about whether they were fellows, as it’s consistent with Brinn’s previous suspicions and, more importantly, Lhuna was already a goner by this point so voting for her would have been an easy (if limited value) brownie point for a fellow wolf.

Eonwe
Somewhat possible packmate for both. D2 casts deciding vote on Huin, though as discussed before, if he was aware of this at the time he would have known it was a choice between bussing a packmate or looking pretty bad himself the next Day for casting a deciding vote in a bandwagon against innocent Mac. From D2 to D4 Eonwe says Lhuna seems fine or is mostly good, until later on D4 Lhuna has moved to "unsure, neutral" on his list; D2 Lhuna makes a point against Eonwe but in the same post says her vote choices for the Day are Lommy, Brinn or Boro; D4 Lhuna elaborates on her argument against Eonwe and votes for him. Very interestingly given Lhuna’s alignment, Eonwe was both the person she voted and the other most serious candidate for lynching yesterDay. This makes him seem a little better since it would be pretty wild if the top candidates for lynch were fellow wolves one of whom voted for the other. Still possible, I guess.

Kath
Very possible packmate for Huin, somewhat possible for Lhuna. Barely interacts with Huin. Lhuna barely mentions her. D1 Kath berates Lhuna for Nilping; D3 says Lhuna would've been her second choice for lynchee due to her role in discussing Kit; D4 wants to hear more from her as still suspects her for same reason, pre-votes Inzil or Lhuna, and is fifth to vote for Lhuna. This is very consistent with her earlier suspicions, which also means that if Kath is a wolf who suspected her fellow Lhuna earlier, she didn’t really have a choice. At the time she voted, it was pretty much between Lhuna and Eonwe. A vote for her other top suspect, Inzil, would have been considered a throwaway vote at that point, and incriminating if Lhuna did end up lynched like she did. (Sidenote: if Inzil does turn out to be a wolf, Kath looks better, as I'm not sure if she'd really have two packmates as her very clear top suspects for two Days in a row.)

Shasta
Possible packmate for both. With Huin, they barely interacted with each other and on D2 Shasta voted only after Huin was already a goner. I don’t think this vote placement is as fishy as some others do, but I also don’t think it tells us anything about Shasta’s role or his relationship with Huin. With Lhuna, Shasta says on D1 that the self-vote isn't alignment-indicative; Lhuna suspects Shasta since D3 but doesn't act on it; and on D4 Shasta is sixth to vote for Lhuna, saying that he doesn't think a wagon he likes more is going to materialise. I appreciate the sentiment if he’s innocent, but this could also be Shastawolf code for “I think my fellow is a goner so might as well bus her”. I still get generally innocent vibes from Shasta and think his subtle attempt to protect Kitanna is a point in favour of his innocence, but at the same time his interactions with our two known wolves would be consistent with his being their packmate.

THE Ka
Very possible packmate for Huin, possible for Lhuna. Barely interacts with either wolf, except for a noticeably long explanation on D1 about how Lhuna’s time constraints make her hard to read. This stood out to me on rereading as something Ka might not go into such detail about if she didn’t have a reason to have thought about Lhuna to such an extent already on D1. On the other hand, she is the first to vote for Lhuna after the QT vote, which would be a very bold move if wolf-on-wolf. Then again, quite a few people had expressed suspicion of Lhuna so it’s possible Ka calculated that she was a likely lynchee after the QT vote and wanted to make herself look good by bussing her – or alternatively, she could have calculated that someone else was a more likely lynch (it was still fairly early on).

Inzil
Very possible packmate for both. I’m trying very hard to avoid my earlier tunnel vision problem here (sorry Mac ) and expected to find something between Inzil and Lhuna that would make him look less suspicious, but – nope. His interactions with Huin were, as previously discussed, mutual suspicion without votes either way, and Inzil voting for Mac on D2 in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin. Meanwhile he and Lhuna barely mention each other; on D4 Inzil says the QT pick is "interesting" but Lhuna isn't his first choice, and votes for Lommy in the same post. This is certainly consistent with his crusade against Lommy that started pretty much the minute D4 began and that I’m still not comfortable with; but as pretty much the only time either of them expresses an opinion about the other, it looks pretty bad.

--

As for the Lalaith kill - my initial thought is that she made herself look pretty innocent with her voting record. There was an interesting pattern with Lalaith, actually. Both wolf lynches, she follows a (more or less) known innocent’s lead and votes for the wolf while saying she doesn’t really want to, and regardless of having a better reason for voting for an alternative candidate (Mac on D2, Eonwe on D4). This would have been both ruthless and mostly unnecessary for a Lalwolf, and in my opinion at least made her look very innocent.

That said, I really, really don't think the wolves can afford not to try and off the Seer at this (or any) stage, as s/he becomes increasingly dangerous to them the longer s/he lives. I can't keep my eyes open long enough to look into it, so I'll let someone else go through her posts and look for potential Seer clues. The only thing that immediately occurs to me is how vocal she was about trusting Kitanna on D2. This could maybe have been interpreted as a Seer who had dreamed her after her slip the Day before.