[Galadriel55]

Hi JeyEn! Welcome to the Downs!

Personally, this bothered me as well - Gandalf's insistence that he always knew, coupled with him taking no action, and also clearly coupled with actions which indicate doubt (why the trip to Minas Tirith and Isengard?). I'm sure people with better textual memory will come up with a more satisfying canonical explanation, but here is how I've been reconciling it in my head. Gandalf is boasting slightly, turning a fleeting suspicion into certainty with the sureness of hindsight. A character flaw, if you will. Perhaps more accurately was to say that a thought would enter his mind that "something is up with this ring". Perhaps even "This ring has the markings of a Great Ring". Even perhaps "What if it is THE Ring?". But then inevitably followed by "This is preposterous. There must have been a flaw in my reasoning, something I overlooked. No way this is actually true".

Gandalf, humble as he is, still occasionally likes to make grand statements about himself, and likes the occasional bit of pomp. So in hindsight, of course he saw from the very beginning that the signs all pointed this way! But in reality, he was probably plagued by a lot of doubts and was hesitant to make a rash move that would spook the "real" culprit and alert the foe, hesitant to dive for a penny and lose a pound in the process.



Addendum:

You are by far not the only one to wonder about this, and in fact this very thought has actually made it into a fanfic book. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality is the creation of an author who combines his love for various fantasy and sci-fi classics with brilliant logic. The book can mainly be summarized by asking the question, What if things in Harry Potter had an actual logical explanation?. It's great fun, very interesting story and plot twists and fantastic humour. But he also very lovingly references some favourites along the way, and here is the pertinent excerpt, a conversation between Harry and Dumbledore:

"So to you, for now, there is but one change, and I implore you to understand its necessity. Do you recognize the book on my desk, Harry?"

The inner part of Harry was screaming and banging its head against imaginary walls, while the outer Harry turned and stared at what proved to be -

There was a rather long pause.

Then Harry said, "It is a copy of The Lord of the Rings by J. R. R. Tolkien."

"You recognized a quote from that book," said Dumbledore, an intent look in his eyes, "so I assume you remember it well. If I am mistaken, let me be corrected."

Harry just stared at him.

"It is important to understand," said Dumbledore, "that this book is not a realistic depiction of a wizarding war. John Tolkien never fought Voldemort. Your war will not be like the books you have read. Real life is not like stories. Do you understand, Harry?"

Harry, rather slowly, nodded yes; and then shook his head no.

"In particular," said Dumbledore, "there is a certain very foolish thing that Gandalf does in the first book. He makes many mistakes, does Tolkien's wizard; but this one error is the most unforgivable. That mistake is this: When Gandalf first suspected, even for a moment, that Frodo held the One Ring, he should have moved Frodo to Rivendell at once. He might have been embarrassed, that old wizard, if his suspicions had proven false. He might have found it awkward to so command Frodo, and Frodo would have been greatly inconvenienced, needing to set aside many other plans and pastimes. But a little embarrassment, and awkwardness, and inconvenience, is as nothing compared to the loss of your whole war, when the nine Nazgul swoop down on the Shire while you are reading old scrolls in Minas Tirith, and take the Ring at once. And it is not Frodo alone who would have been hurt; all Middle-Earth would have fallen into slavery. If it had not been only a story, Harry, they would have lost their war. Do you understand what I am saying?"

"Er..." said Harry, "not exactly..." There was something about Dumbledore when he was like this, which made it hard to stay properly cold; his dark side had trouble with weird.

"Then I will spell it out," said the old wizard. His voice was stern, his eyes were sad. "Frodo should have been moved to Rivendell at once by Gandalf himself - and Frodo should never have left Rivendell without guard. There should have been no night of terror in Bree, no Barrow-downs, no Weathertop where Frodo was wounded, they could have lost their entire war any of those times, for Gandalf's folly! Do you understand now what I am saying to you?"

~HPMOR Chapter 62