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Well in Silmarillion, he said "for he rules the Nine, and of the Seven he has recovered three. " So 4 rings were considered lost. And Gandalf could have thought that Nine and other three were maybe redistributed. What is interesting - in early draft of this chapter, Gandalf says that he firstly believed Bilbo has a lesser ring. But for some reason, Tolkien did not write that. So I doubt it was a editing mistake.
Here is the quote from early draft (I don't know how to put it in the nice box):
'Yes, I let him,' said Gandalf. 'But at first of course I did not even imagine that it was [one] of the nineteen Rings of Power: I thought he had got nothing more dangerous than one of the lesser magic rings that were once more common - and were used (as their maker intended) chiefly by minor rogues and villains, for mean wickednesses. I was not frightened of Bilbo being affected by their power. But when I began to suspect that the matter was more serious than that, I told him as much as my suspicions warranted. He knew that it came in the long run from the Necromancer. But you must remember there was the Ring itself to reckon with. Even Bilbo could not wholly escape the power of the Ruling Ring. He developed - a sentiment. He would keep it as a memento. Frankly - he became rather proud of his Great Adventure, and used to look at the Ring now and again (and oftener as time went on) to warm his memory: it made him feel rather heroic, though he never lost his power of laughing at the feeling.
'But in the end it got a hold of him in that way. He knew eventually that it was giving him "long life", and thinning him. He grew weary of it - "I can't abide it any longer", he said - but to get rid of it was not so easy. He found it hard to bring himself to it. If you think for a moment: it is not really very easy to get rid of the Ring once you have got it.'
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