After reading Unfinished Tales, the issue becomes somewhat less clouded.
Burglary was intended from the first. No, the Dwarves never intended to kill Smaug. They did not have an army strong enough, and all the heroes were either dead and buried, or busy in foreign parts. If murder had been their intent, Bilbo would not have been hired.
How they expected to burgle (wow, that's a funny word!) all the hoard of Smaug is a mystery. But remember, even if they only recovered the Arkenstone, the mission would have been a success.
In the event, however, their coming to Erebor triggered a chain of events that did lead to the death of Smaug. An important lesson for us all - no matter how great the odds, try your best and you never know what may happen. I love The Hobbit.
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But Gwindor answered: 'The doom lies in yourself, not in your name'.
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