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Old 11-02-2016, 11:10 AM   #225
Kuruharan
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,575
Kuruharan is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Kuruharan is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Boots

Looks like everyone is like me and doesn't have much time to play the game today.

Shasta posts from yesterday

Post 185 - Says the Herbalist might only have one save and seems...unduly happy about this for an ordo.

Post 190 - Still defends Inzil rather strenuously.

Post 194 - This is the post that gives me the strongest impression that he is not paying attention to the thread. He somehow managed to miss my Post 166 which from visual style alone is one of the most noticeable posts in the thread. Not actually reading the thread is a potential wolfish tell because wolves can subconsciously not read the thread because they don't need to. They already know who is guilty.

Also, at that stage, no-lynch was detrimental to the Ward because we couldn't win that way at that point.

Post 197 - He says he doesn't really suspect anybody. Says with almost a "ho-hum" that he will take a look at Lommy and Lalaith.

Post 198 - Suspicious of Legate for no other reason than it would be really cleverly evil of Legate to be evil in this game. Still defending Inzil.

Post 207 - Why does he write disparagingly about the Ward behaving sensibly?

Post 212 - Suddenly says there might be an outside shot at Inzil being a wolf...but why at that point all of a sudden when Inzil had been deeply suspected from the beginning?

I haven't had time toDAY to run a numbers scenario, and I am not sure that I will. That being said, I am not sure not-lynching is a winning strategy for the Ward at this point. To borrow the analogy from Thucydides, by starting to lynch we have taken a tiger by the tail (our lynches might be wrong). It might have been dangerous for us to seize the tiger by the tail but it is more dangerous for us to let it go now (i.e. the only way for us to correct a bad lynch at this point is a correct lynch).

Now, if somebody wants to run a few scenarios and post them here, I strongly encourage that to happen. I'm just not sure I will be able to get to it as I am very busy at work today.

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