Numbers Post.
I'm slightly modifying the format...and this post will be a bit lengthy, but the content is pretty straightforward. I wish it was easier to set up charts and tables on the forum.
Worst Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
DAY FIVE
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta
DAY SIX
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta
Player 5
I just put both gifteds in there for convenience sake. On the No-Lynch choice in the worst case scenario we would be dependent on a correct bard save/herbalist heal (assuming the herbalist has any juice left). This would be a pretty chancy prospect.
But, I don't for a minute think this is actually the scenario we are facing. And if it is I take my hat off to the wolves.
Medium Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
DAY FIVE
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta (Baddie 8)
DAY SIX
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta (Baddie 8)
Player 4
The wolves already cannot win if we are in this case, they can't get enough kills. A No-Lynch would be viable.
Best Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
DAY FOUR
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)
DAY FIVE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)
Shasta (Baddie 9)
DAY SIX
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)
Shasta (Baddie 9)
Player 3
Also here the wolves are doomed and cannot win regardless of what they do.
My personal belief is we have the best case scenario, but it is possible that we are on medium. There isn't much we can do if we are on worst. We would have to roll the dice on a lynch and hope for the best. But I don't believe we are on the worst case. Nothing about the way this game has unfolded leads me to believe we are facing the worst case scenario right now.
All that being said, I invite everyone to pick apart my numbers and analysis to make sure it is sound. As I said before, never trust me with counting.
While I think we are safe to Not Lynch, I kind of would like to lynch
Lalaith. I think the case against her is compelling and I'd like to take a stab at winning this thing with a clean sweep.
But I am not wedded to that if the rest of the Ward doesn't think it advisable.
Xed with 2
Boro's