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Old 08-29-2015, 07:17 AM   #9
Boromir88
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Two Towers Network - Group A Preview
-Boro88

Today the TTN previews all 8 groups and how I think each group will shake out this year. We'll look back at every teams' 2013 performances, additions and subtractions in free agency, and whether the roster moves have improved the teams' chances this year.

*Note to readers: Team Name (Round team was knocked out in 2013 ; Goals scored - Goals conceded)

GROUP A

Dwarves United (Group ; 2-6)
-Additions: MF Narvi, MF Thorin, DF Gandalf, DF Shadowfax
-Losses: DF Celebrimbor, MF Fili, MF Kili, MF Gimli

Dwarves United defense should be even more solid than 2013's. Losing Celebrimbor but adding 2 key defenders - Gandalf and Shadowfax - has to be considered a win. Their defense suffered in 2013 because Celebrimbor and Aule had to give too much attention to aiding a weak offense and they still only managed to put 2 goals in! Helping their chances this year is playing a group with later age heroes (2013 they were in a group with all 1st Age opponents). So even if the defenders have to come down to help the offense, I can't see them conceding 6 goals in 3 matches this year, not when matched up against the other teams in Group A. TTN gives them an early edge to finish 2nd, but the tale remains the same with this team...it will never be a serious championship contender until they bring in more talent on the offense.

Misty Mountains (Round of 16 ; 5-7)
-Additions: DF Landroval
-Losses: MF Narvi

Misty Mountains is the only team in Group A to make it out of the Group Stage in 2013. It seems they spent the offseason period believing the players they already had were going to be good enough going forward as they only made one move. Bringing in Landroval and then moving the Watcher to MF to make up for the departure of Narvi. A "staying put" strategy would be considered acceptable if Misty Mountains was a championship contender but they weren't in 2013. Defense will be marginally better, by making room for Landroval and putting the Watcher in as a defensive MF. Their offense took a few steps back though, because Narvi is a capable attacking MF, so TTN views their offseason strategy of "staying put" as a mistake, and their roster move as a net loss. Doubtful they make it out of their group this year.

The Sea (Group ; 5-4)
-Additions: FW Earendil, MF Earnil I, DF Ciryatur
-Losses: FW Tar Minastir, MF Tar Meneldur, MF Voronwe

The Sea didn't lose a match in their group last Arda Cup, but they still couldn't get out of their group (Nargothrond and Tirion advanced). So, they were certainly in a tougher group in 2013, compared to this year, they have to be considered the favorites to win Group A. With The Sea's payroll, if they can't make a deep run this year then this team has a serious lack in spirit, because the talent is there in every position. Ulmo leading a cool professional defense moved a tumultuous Osse to an attacking MF position, which TTN believes he's better suited. At least on this team Osse is a better fit and freedom to be his own Maiar in the attack, instead of feeling restrained by Ulmo in the defense. Then replacing Tar Minastir with Earendil, they didn't lose any talent at the FW position, and arguably it's an improvement. Payroll remained the same and on paper the roster is improved. Now they better show it on the pitch.

Wilderland (Group ; 6-6)
-Additions: MF Bolg, DF Vorondil
-Losses: MF Nazgul #3, DF Radagast

Wilderland did well to keep the key players on the team, Scatha and Thranduil. They make a good pair of strikers. They elected to swap out some of their supporting players, which isn't likely to improve the team, but they didn't lose one of their deadly strikers, so there is no increased burden on either one to score more. Like The Sea, Wilderland didn't lose a match in 2013 it was just unfortunately 3 draws (against Erebor, Eriador, and Misty Mountains) wasn't good enough to advance out of their group. The overall focus of Group A leans to the defense, so draws may be good enough to advance from this group. And with the tiebreaker being goal differential and goals scored, you have to like Wilderland's edge in a tiebreaker situation. Their 6 goals in 3 games in 2013 was the most amongst the other teams in this group. They'll contend for a Top 2 spot in Group A, but still the roster looks a season or 2 away from being a legit title contender (if that's what the investing parties are going after)
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