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Old 10-29-2016, 01:27 PM   #113
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
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Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?
Simply - out of all the people, not that anybody said anything much, it was Day 1 and all, you know the drill - out of all the people, he would be the one whose way of acting seemed the most worthy of suspicion to me. It was the general tone of his posts which seemed to me different from the innocent Inzil I know, but that's about it. Also (but that is not a suspicion-worthy thing overall, just something that marked him in the limited field of Day 1) has been a certain confusing tone to him which actually persists until toDay (I totally didn't get his questions regarding Nerwen?), although that is purely just confusing and I don't know what to make of it. So that is not the question. As for now, I still have some raised eyebrow over him, but that may be a residue from yesterDay and partly also the confusion (as in, what is he trying to say? Moreover, for what purpose?).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
They already only have one kill per Night. The other kill is ours, i.e. the lynch (unless, of course, a wolf became representative- and a wolf could subvert any general strategy). Your way, the wolves can kill us freely, while we have *no* chance to kill *any* wolves.
Point taken. That's really what I said about the game being now a question of "strategy" rather than "tactics". The balance is on the long-term rather than short-term stuff. The WWs of course can kill us freely, however, that's the only thing they can do - and, as we have seen this morning, even that might not work at all! We still have two "Rangers", effectively. If I now take the basic non-vote case as an example: we lynch nobody and WWs kill people on Night 3, Night 4 and Night 5. If they don't manage to kill the two Gifteds, we are ok in numbers. And on top of everything, there is still a chance the Gifteds protect some of the people.

Whereas if we lynch people, therefore making the village smaller, we are also giving the WWs bigger chance of targeting the Gifteds (if I discount the risk of accidentally lynching a Gifted ourselves).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Why? We're not even really looking for them, in this scenario. All they have to do is keep killing us and hope to hit the gifteds- and gifteds are rather prone to inadvertent "tells".
I suggest to look for Wolves. For certain. That's even why I stated who I would want to vote for yesterDay to lynch if I had to, even though at that point it was really based on almost zero info (Day 1...). I think if we all do it and voice our opinions as if this were a "normal" game, it helps us to get the general picture and it may help us bag a Wolf if we decide (at any point) to actually lynch someone after all.

The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
What I said yesterDay: we should exercise the no-lynch option if we simply have no idea, but we do our best to hunt wolves.
I agree with this. However, I would like to point out that so far more or less nobody seemed to be doing that. It won't do if we start debating two hours before DL (or ten minutes before somebody needs to go to sleep) who we find suspicious AND ALSO who we want to select as Rep. So if yes, please let's start doing it now.

I said as much already yesterDay: People should say whom do they suspect, early enough, and then also select the Rep. If we are hunting Wolves, the game forces us to actually go through the process of selecting a candidate twice, because first we should decide who we suspect, and then cast the vote for the Rep. (That, granted, can be done pretty quickly if we see who is the most "trustworthy" when it comes to sending in the name of the person we want to see lynched, but it does require everyone saying who they would lynch, because that way we can know whom to vote as Rep!!!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Note also that in your scenario the number of wolves vs innocents *certainly* increases (rather than possibly, as in a normal game), making it ever easier for them to control the vote- and there may well come a point where a wolf-rep could safely lynch at will.
Well it won't happen by pure numbers (if we don't lynch anyone ever, there will still be more innocents than Wolves). On top of that (pure theoretical scenario here, but just to make the point) if we decided never ever to lynch anyone and just sit for the rest of the game, then the WWs could not control the vote, because the vote would only serve the purpose not to vote anyone. And at the moment the Rep betrayed our trust (i.e. lynched someone when it was stated that there should be no lynch), they would get lynched the next Day, obviously. So the WWs could - in the ideal state - do it only on the very last Day, and (hopefully, presumably, statistically) that should not save them if both Gifteds were still alive. (But yes, I acknowledge that is a risk.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
As I said, I think this decision of whether or not to lynch should be on a Day by Day basis rather than an over-arching strategy for the whole game.
Agreed agreed, as has been said many times. Just for the time being, I am not yet decided what would my preference for toDay be. If we don't get a clear picture whom we want to lynch, we can afford not doing it and it might be fine. We got ourselves an extra Day, after all. But if we get some good idea whom to lynch, let's do it, by all means.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
I'm kinda having hard time getting into this game - I wonder if it's been too long since there was a game or if it's just the new rules. Waiting out seems a smart overall strategy if we're unsure, but I feel like there must be some catch we haven't figured out. (Not to mention I don't like not voting.)
Well one obvious catch, as Nerwen mentioned, is the fact that the Wolves will be here in full strength, all the time. And that they can theoretically win just by killing two Gifteds. But they can do it in any case, of course. It is really mostly about what do we decide to do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.
That, actually, seems like a reasonable thing. Even though I hasten to point out that people we consider likely to be innocent do not need to always be right in their opinions (e.g. if we wanted to make a lynch), but at least they should not be Wolves (and I would therefore expect them to honor whatever the village decides to do - and if they didn't, to bear the consequences, i.e. lynch the next Day).

And at least as long as we don't get a competing sick-person, we should probably assume that whoever is sick is sick. The same goes for Nerwen toDay. I can imagine a scenario where a Wolf might try to fake it, but I think it would require too much risk on their part. Unless, of course, unless they felt already threatened by the danger of being "waited out" by the village. If so, they probably would want to act as soon as possible. For that particular reason, speaking of that, I would not recommend Nerwen (or always the "sick" person anyway) to be selected for the Rep on this Day, just in case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.
This just as an addendum to what I just said; I also think it unlikely the WWs would target Cab, and it would be fairly complicated. But see above.

But anyway: we are probably losing McCaber toNight, so that is one more point to consider in regards to the ratio of living people vs. total of WWs etc., so... well.

My thoughts about people toDay to follow... maybe rather in a different post, this is probably long already, and maybe someone will post meanwhile.

EDIT: x-ed after Lommy... whoa whoa, what an activity suddenly
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