Alatar, your point:
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Where the might comes in is that Gandalf does not know if Theoden would still have found his death on the battlefield, though by less interesting devices (stray arrow, stomped by a mumakil, impaled on a sharp stick after tripping over a prone Hobbit...)
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disagree, but again it comes down to how one reads the line and the character's traits.
As I said, Gandalf was not in the least Modest, and would state exactly what he meant and wanted whenever he could. Here, to me, he seems DOUBTFUL as to whether he could have stopped the WK's attack on Thedoen. Hopeful, yes, but not CERTAIN (and that is what I was trying to explain). And why would Gandalf state the obvious anyway? Of course Theoden could have been killed by arrow, etc, but that's War. It could have happened to anyone, and for Gandalf to say this would seem redundant.
And for the millionth time (but maybe the first for Valar), we are talking about what the Director and co had to do from a 'Movie' point of view. Having the WK ride in on a horse, speak a few words to Gandalf and then leave again would not have worked on film (as it DOES in the book). We needed a 'cliffhanger' , tension etc, and to show that the Rohirrim SAVED the DAY. This is how they chose to do it.