[the phantom]

And here it is! The not-at-all anticipated Phantom's Tournament Guide!

GROUP A

EREBOR- Smaug is a wise and cunning goalie, and is usually able to guess right on penalty shots, but as everyone knows a goalie can’t win everything by himself. I don’t think Smaug will get enough support from the rest of his team. Roac is great at getting in the way of the ball, but he can’t actually kick the ball. The dwarves are fundamentally sound and tireless, but slower than some of the opponents they will be facing. Bard is an accurate shooter, but a team like Angband has good enough defenders to keep Bard off balance, and generally keep the ball from even getting to him.

MORIA- Azog and Durin’s Bane have proven themselves to be dangerous, but will team chemistry be a problem like last year? Also, the Watcher in the Water has a tendency to nap on the job and allow balls to slide right past. Look for one of the dwarves to toss a rock at him periodically to keep him on his toes. The defense benefits greatly from the addition of Celebrimbor.

VALINOR- Valinor has some real talent (Orome, Eonwe, and Tulkas in particular) but the question is, can they carry the team? For a couple games, sure, but I expect they’ll wear down as the tournament goes along. They certainly won’t get much help from Mandos, who is prone to standing in the middle of the field, completely unmoving. He often tries to “doom” the ball away from their goal, or towards the opponent’s goal, not quite realizing that action is more effective on the football field. Manwe also is prone to inactivity, often letting a game get entirely out of hand before moving. His judgment is also suspect, as he is easily fooled by clever opponents. Due to his unwillingness to act, he has developed a slight fear of the ball, and has been known to feint when it comes too close, or sometimes when anyone on the field kicks it forcefully.

ANGBAND- Ulfast, Uldor, and Ulfang are newcomers, but the fact that Melkor put them in the starting line-up must mean they are capable players. Surrounding them is a cast of well known and widely feared footballers. Ungolient will cause all sorts of problems with the cloud of darkness that surrounds her, Melkor and Gothmog can really pressure a defense, the vampire and the wolves are very fast and aggressive, and the two dragons, Glaurung and Ancalagon, make scoring on Angband a real chore.

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
Angband- 99%
Valinor- 89%
Moria- 6%
Erebor- 6%

Likely to go all the way- Angband

GROUP B

BRETHIL- Brethil is a good team. Good enough to advance out of group play, anyway. And with Turambar shooting the ball, they are also capable of an upset or two once out of group play. But they’re not in Tuna’s league.

LOTHLORIEN- Lothlorien is a solid team, but lacks the scoring abilities of Brethil and Tuna. And as she will soon find out, Galadriel is no Melian in goal, no matter how much she pretends to be.

TUNA- Tuna has possibly the most athletic team across the board. Fingolfin is a talented and fearless goalie, and the combination of Finwe and Feanor on the attack is enough to make any opposing goalie wet his shorts. In many circles Tuna is considered the tournament favorite.

SHIRE- Every single member of the Shire team will be slower, weaker, and shorter, and have less reach than his/her opponent in every single game. So naturally, they will win lots of matches. Makes sense, doesn’t it? Teams of twelve year olds regularly beat World Cup teams after all, right? But seriously, so long as officials refuse to crack down on various illegal activities, I fully expect the Shire to carry on winning matches by continuing their practice of poisoning opponents’ water jugs, paying referees, rigging the ball with magnets, and other such nonsense.

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
The Shire- 100%
Tuna- 80%
Brethil- 15%
Lothlorien- 5%

Likely to go all the way- The Shire, Tuna

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING WITHOUT CHEATING
Tuna- 99%
Brethil- 81%
Lothlorien- 20%
The Shire- 0%

Likely to go all the way without cheating- Tuna


GROUP C

NIGGLE’S PARISH- This team will not win. Their name is ridiculous. And really- voices playing positions? Good luck with that.

NUMENOR- This team is stocked with royal talent. It would be a severe disappointment if they do not advance out of group play. However, I can’t see them challenging for the title.

NARGOTHROND- Nargothrond is a very dangerous team, capable of challenging for the title. Their primary, and possibly only, weakness is Mim the petty dwarf, a known backstabber that often dooms his own team. But if my sources are correct, Mim’s stay in the starting line-up will be short lived. Gwindor, who has been on the DL, has nearly recovered from his injury, and will certainly be reinserted into the starting line. This will complete a solid team that boasts fantastic defense led by experts Celegorm and Curufin, as well as the too-good-to-be-believed scoring talents of Mormegil.

BUCKLAND- Buckland boasts a roster that consists primarily of extremely short, somewhat overweight hobbits. Merry is certainly a cut above the hobbits, but even he will be dwarfed by those defending him, and outpaced as well. Gildor won’t have this problem, but what can one elf do alone?

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
Nargothrond- 99%
Numenor- 95%
Buckland- 5%
Niggle’s Parish- 1%

Likely to go all the way- Nargothrond

GROUP D

DOR LOMIN- With Hurin and Huor not playing for them this year, Dor Lomin will be hard pressed to equal the success they’ve had in years past. Fingon and Turin are certainly capable of putting up goals, but the formation and lack of experience in the field behind them will likely lead to the opposition scoring goals as well. They’re good enough to make it out of group play, but they won’t make a deep run.

MORDOR- As usual, Mordor has fielded a solid team. Despite the possibility of team chemistry problems between the orcs, Sauron’s teams always maintain focus so long as there is an enemy on the field. Also, as a cold and calculating sort of chap, Sauron is not prone to the red/yellow cards that other baddies often receive.

TOL ERESSEA- While TE might feature some quality talent (Earendil and Osse in particular), I can’t see them advancing out of group play. Their forwards, Frodo and Earwen, have never proven themselves to be potent attackers, and I don’t really see them being able to keep up with Mordor and Dor Lomin, who both feature world-class duos (Turin-Fingon, Sauron-WK).

ROVERANDOM- This is another team that you can write off immediately. Roverandom had so much difficulty fielding a team that their roster includes two dogs and a random unnamed boy. Even more puzzling is Roverandom’s assertion that the “Man in the Moon” will be playing forward for them. I expect that means they have not actually found an 11th member for their team thus far.

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
Mordor- 90%
Dor Lomin- 80%
Tol Eressea- 29%
Roverandom- 1%

Likely to go all the way- Mordor

GROUP E

FANGORN- I fully expect Fangorn to be a disaster. Ents and orcs do not mix. It’s really too bad, because from a sheer talent perspective, the team is pretty good.

OLD GREY HILL- Here is another team that won’t go anywhere. But really, can you expect a high level of football from kitchen utensils and drunken cats? Also, the Sun is likely to receive a red card rather quickly for burning opponents.

TOL IN GAUROTH- I’m not sure what to expect from this team. I think I’ll pick them to advance just because of how weak this group is, but I don’t have any sort of read on them at this point.

MISTY MOUNTAINS- The dwarves and the goblins will have a tough time getting along. The success of this team depends on whether or not Gwaihir is able to intimidate the orcs into good behavior and team work.

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING

Misty Mountains- 80%
Tol In Gauroth- 75%
Fangorn- 44%
Old Grey Hill- 1%

Likely to go all the way- none

GROUP F

GONDOLIN- Gondolin is advancing. Definitely. They have all-star talent all over the field and a Vala in goal. They would be a smart pick to win it all.

BREE- With help from the neighboring Downs and Old Forest, Bree has managed to field a solid team. It’s a shame they weren’t placed in a weaker bracket, because I really think they’d have a shot at advancing.

WOOTON MAJOR- They aren’t a bad team, but they’re not on level with Mirkwood, and don’t have the individual talents to match up with Bree’s Tom Bombadil. And Gondolin… well… that game could get terribly lopsided.

MIRKWOOD- This is a team that needs to be watched. A team featuring a wizard and two immense bear-men always is formidable, but when you add Sauron and a Nazgul, you are talking about a real contender. Mirkwood could sneak up on some teams. Sauron and his Nazgul sidekick cleverly entered their names as “Necromancer” and “Khamul”, and so will possibly be overlooked until game time, when suddenly the other team realizes “Oh crap, it’s a Ringwraith. Oh, double crap- Sauron’s on their team!”

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING

Gondolin- 99%
Mirkwood- 95%
Bree- 4%
Wooton Major- 1%

Likely to go all the way- Gondolin

GROUP G

ROHAN- Rohan is very good. And I mean very good. Unfortunately, they’re matched up with two other very good teams.

BARROW-DOWNS- In what is probably the toughest group in the tournament, BDs is likely the best team. They have, I believe, just a slight edge at most positions, and most importantly, a fine spirit of camaraderie and a team mentality.

GONDOR- Just reread what I said for Rohan, only substitute “Gondor” for “Rohan”.

INKLINGS- I don’t know what to expect from The Inklings. They are all untested, inexperienced players thrown into the toughest group in the tournament. This makes me think they won’t advance, but who knows?

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING

The Barrow-Downs- 70%
Gondor- 55%
Rohan- 55%
Inklings- 20%

Likely to go all the way- The Barrow-Downs

GROUP H

ARNOR- Arnor is athletic and well trained. Their players are physically imposing, enduring, and quick. Arnor supporters are fully expecting a semifinals appearance at the least.

DORIATH- Doriath owns a tight defense, a prolific offense, and a solid midfield, and is certainly able to challenge for the title.

RIVENDELL- Rivendell did not get the roster they were hoping for, and that will likely lead to an early dismissal. Aragorn, Celeborn, Gandalf, Gildor, Valandil, and others could have opted to play for Rivendell, but luck was not with the Last Homely House. Instead, they have a suspect midfield that is unlikely to be able to keep possession, and likely to allow other teams into their half of the field with ease. While Elladan, Erestor, and Glorfindel are amazing defenders, and Elrond is one of the greatest goalies of all time, they probably can’t be expected to shut out the opponent in every single game.

HAM- I expect Ham to play well, but I also expect Ham to be eliminated. Arnor and Doriath are just too good.

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING

Doriath- 95%
Arnor- 95%
Rivendell- 5%
Ham- 5%

Likely to go all the way- Doriath, Arnor


And now finally, my pre-tournament top 10.
AP/BCS Poll (Ask Phantom/Bull Crap Slanted Poll)
1. Tuna
2. Gondolin
3. Angband
4. Nargothrond
5. Arnor
6. The Barrow-Downs
7. Mordor
8. Doriath
9. Valinor
10. Numenor