Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88
In theory, maybe the EW didn't create a wolf N1. So, D1 there was no wolf and the EW was just trying to get a lynch/small chance to expose the GW/gifted. What would be the advantage to create a wolf N1, other than create a small chance of possibly losing the wolf in a lucky D1 lynch? If by creating a wolf N2, the EW then gets to make a kill on N2, I'd definitely wait until N2 until creating a wolf. If I were the EW, just to get the joy of seeing a completely fruitless D1 lynch, because there would be no wolf to lynch.
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Following on from my last post, this actually seems like what a suicidal wolf would say to try to throw us off the scent. Since there is one spare/disposable wolf, getting one into the Dead Thread on Day 1 could definitely derail it for a while, as I mentioned in this post (quoting it here for ease and because I can't be bothered to write it out again):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë
If we lynch someone now, we have the following situation:
N1: 0 in DT
D1: 0 in DT
N2: 1 in DT
D2: 2 in DT (1/2 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N3: 3 in DT (1/3 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
D3: 4 in DT (3/4 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N4: 5 in DT (3/5 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
... etc.
This means that at each Night, there are 2 unknowns. Of course, if we now agree to a certain rule (e.g. always vote for the unknown that's spent the longest time in the DT), then it could be easier, but there's always the chance of a wasted Night vote early on with 2 unknown wolves overpowering the general vote, and there's also a risk of wolves messing stuff up in moments where people would be tempted to break this rule, e.g. when a Visitor is there.
If we didn't lynch someone today, we'd have:
N1: 0 in DT
D1: 0 in DT
N2: 0 in DT
D2: 1 in DT
N3: 2 in DT (1/2 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
D3: 3 in DT (3/3 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N4: 4 in DT (3/4 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
... etc.
Of course, this is super hypothetical and I can imagine a few situations where it would break down (e.g. Ranger save, Wizards' duel, etc.), but just thought I'd put it out there.
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Of course, in this case, it
would be beneficial to get a wolf into the Dead Thread immediately, as their strength in that thread would wane as soon as it gets populated by innocents following any kind of protocol (this actually brings to mind a super-crazy strategy, but I think I'll save that for another post).
So given that the EW does have a disposable wolf (that could actually be useful to them lynched on D1), I can't see why they wouldn't pick one on N1 for that reason alone. I believe we still haven't found out from
Kuru whether or not the EW can make their first wolf and pick a kill on the same Night, but even they can, there is a greater risk on N2 of the EW picking an unwolfable person (the GW and their pickee) and therefore not being able to make a kill - on N1, there is a 2/16 = 1/8 chance of hitting an unwolfable, while by N2 this could potentially be raised to 3/15 = 1/5.
edit: x-ed since my last post.