[Nogrod]

The AKM is bringing you the most thorough analysis of the group phase. This is part one. Look for part two in a few days.

Reading instructions for the stats, an example.

5. (r.2) Angband, 101£
W - 1 (4)
D - 3 (1,2,3)
L - 0
3-2
A: (3) 15/42 – 20%
D: (2) 14/36 - 85,7%
O: 7,1% - 5,6%

That means the following… line by line.

5. (r.2) Angband, 101£
5. = ranked number 5 from 32 teams.
(r.2) = belongs to ranking-group 2 (out of 5).
Angband = name of the team.
101£ = value of the team in millions.

W - 1 (4)
= 1 win in the friendlies (against a team from a ranking-group 4)

D - 3 (1,2,3)
= 3 draws in the friendlies (against teams from ranking-groups 1, 2 and 3)

L – 0
= 0 losses in the friendlies

3-2
= goals scored – goals allowed

A: (3) 15/42 – 20%
A: = attack
(3) = goals scored
15/42 = shots on target / shots overall
20% = the effectivity of the shots on target

D: (2) 14/36 - 85,7%
D: = defence
(2) = goals allowed
14/36 = shots allowed on target / overall shots allowed
85,7% = goalkeeper’s saving-percentage

O: 7,1% - 5,6%
O: = overall shots percentages
7,1% =goals scored from overall shots – 5,6% = goals allowed from overall shots allowed

~*~


Group A

5. (r.2) Angband, 101£
W - 1 (4)
D - 3 (1,2,3)
L - 0
3-2
A: (3) 15/42 – 20%
D: (2) 14/36 - 85,7%
O: 7,1% - 5,6%

24. (r.4) Tol In Gaurhoth, 68£
W - 0
D - 3 (2,3,5)
L - 1 (1)
5-7
A: (5) 22/54 – 22,7%
B: (7) 27/56 - 74,1%
O: 9,3% - 12,5%+

25. (r.4) ShireBree United, 72£
W - 0
D - 3 (3,4,4)
L - 1 (2)
11-13
A: (11) 29/63 – 37,9%
D: (13) 30/63 - 56,7%
O: 17,5% - 20,6%

32. (r.5) The Downer, 37£
W - 0
D - 0
L - 4 (1,2,3,4)
5-15
A: (5) 23/56 – 21,7%
D: (15) 33/68 - 54,5%
O: 8,9% - 22,1%

Group A should be one for Angband to pick. Yes they have not scored a bunch and have only won one game, but their opponents have been way classier than with the others – and who thinks a team gets a nice show-off scoring-board playing against teams like Anfaughlith or Valimar? And what’s even more important, they have not lost a single game and Carcaroth’s saving precentage of 85,7% is one of the best of the tournament thus far – not to say it is overwhelming in this company.

The scoring for team Angband has rested on the shoulders of Ancalagon thus far – and there’s nothing wrong with that as The Black sure knows how to do it. But the AKM thinks Tevildo needs to pull itself together – and we would be surprised if Morgoth himself would not change gear at some point when games start to matter. For unless those things happen, we can’t promise a long tournament to the team Angband even if it would swipe their first opponent from group H with no effort.

The Downer will be left to the bottom of the group, or third – they might tease T-I-G or Shire-Bree or even pick on Angband – but there just is no chance they could take consistent wins to qualify. So we are left with the question as to the other qualifier: Tol In Gaurhoth or Shire-Bree United?

Picking between the two is quite challenging indeed for two reasons.

First of all one never knows about the T-I-G –team. We have used to see the werewolves go pretty far in the tournament the previous years and it would be odd to see them drop off in the group-stage. But then again most of them are playing as wights this year and their friendly-performance has been moderate at best to put it nicely.

But the Shire-Bree –team is as much of an enigma. They have played three more or less “friendly-friendly” games where both teams have scored like in turns and thus the levels of their opponents in their draws should probably be totally ignored (not to talk of ignoring the number of goals made and allowed). In the only almost serious game, the last friendly, they lost to Eriador in no uncertain terms 1-3. But then again, and with the earlier reclaimer in mind, they have showed they can score and when no other team in the group can boast being top-scorers the AKM wishes to leave it open still: if it comes to outscoring the opponents then Shire-Bree can be on their road to qualifying, but a lot will also depend on Bombadill’s inspiration to play – and the homeground advance / disadvantage (sometimes being the home-team might also mean taking more pressure).

The AKM still bets the T-I-G will qualify. If not for anything else, then because of their superior goal-keeping – and possibly to the awakening of the few werewolves when the real games start.



Group B

8. (r.2) Eriador , 99£
W - 3 (3,4,4)
D - 0
L - 1 (2)
5-2
A: (5) 18/42 – 27,8%
D: (2) 15/41 - 86,7%
O: 11,9% - 4,9%

19. (r.3) Gondolin, 83£
W - 1 (3)
D - 1 (4)
L - 2 (1,3)
9-11
A: (9) 26/58 – 34,6%
D: (11) 33/65 - 66,7%
O: 15,5% - 16,9%

23.(r.4) Arnor, 71£
W - 1 (4)
D - 1 (5)
L - 2 (2,3)
5-7
A: (5) 22/51 – 22,7%
D: (7) 25/54 - 72%
O: 9,8% - 13,0%

26. (r.4) Inter Beleriand, 70£
W - 1 (5)
D - 0
L - 3 (1,2,3)
4-7
A: (4) 20/49 – 20%
D: (7) 24/53 - 70,8%
O: 8,2% - 13,2%

Even if we have been forced to degrade Eriador’s ranking from our previous estimate it looks clear they are more or less the favourites to group B. But, and there is a but here, both Gondolin and Inter Beleriand have had a tougher pre-season period and Eriador’s win over Rank 3 Imladris is not that straightforward. If they had drawn that game the tables would look much more even.

Elrond is one of the best goalies in whole Arda and the AKM is not suggesting he will be anything less than that this year either, but it is to be remarked that fex. Gondolin has been facing a lot tougher fire both quantitatively and qualitatively from their opponents than Eriador has. So the difference between Rôg and Elrond and the defences they lead might not be that great. Adding to that, the forward-duo Gothmog and Maeglin with their 20 million pricetags were thought by many to be overpaid before the friendlies, but with 4+2 (Gothmog) and 4+0 (Maeglin) it seems Gondolin is a seriously-scoring team, due to their skills at finishing. Compared to them Glorfindel and The Witch King have been mere sleep-walkers – and unless that changes – we will predict Gondolin to force Eriador to run for their money if they wish to win the group.

The AKM has raised the ranking of both teams Arnor and Inter Beleriand from the previous 5 to rank 4. It may be that that is not enough for them to overthrow Eriador (2) or Gondolin (3). But looking at the scheduals the teams have had in the friendlies the AKM will actually be betting on Inter Beleriand being one of them nearer to stir the group. Call that gut feeling in the end if you wish – or just trust in the dynamic duo of Maedhros and Fingon coming alive when the going gets tough.

The home-ground advantage behind team Arnor is a factor the AKM wishes to bring forwards though, with the added point that they tend to play very well tactically – and tactics is one thing the spectators rarely see in the friendlies. So maybe Artnor has a thing or two in their sleeves as well?

A host of draws to be anticipated in this group, but alongside Eriador… it is most probably Gondolin to qualify.



Group C

9. (r.2) Wilderland, 85£
W - 2 (2,5)
D - 2 (2,4)
L - 0
11-7
A: (11) 28/62 – 39,3%
D: (7) 26/54 - 73,1%
O: 17,7% - 13,0%

11. (r.2) Anduin, 80£
W - 2 (3,5)
D - 1 (2)
L - 1 (1)
6-5
A: (6) 17/42 – 35,3%
D: (5) 22/52 - 77,3%
O: 14,3% - 9,6%

12. (r.2) Erebor, 103£
W - 2 (2,5)
D - 1 (4)
L - 1 (2)
5-4
A: (5) 23/54 – 21,7%
D: (4) 17/41 - 76,5%
O: 9,3% - 9,8%

31. (r.5) Dwarves United, 89£
W - 0
D - 1 (4)
L - 3 (2,2,3)
1-6
A: (1) 18/43 – 5,6%
D: (6) 17/46 - 64,7%
O: 2,3% - 13,0%

Group C is one of the toughest to call as Wilderland, Anduin and Erebor take positions 9., 11. and 12. in the AKM rankings. Dwarves United might step up their game as well, but at the moment the AKM thinks it will not be enough and the qualification is a bussiness for the three top teams of the group.

Group C is an interesting one also because so many of the teams have already met in the friendlies. That begs the question, how much can one rely on those results? Anduin has drawn with Wilderland, Dwarves Utd. has lost to both Erebor and Wilderland, Erebor has lost to Wilderland but beaten Dwarves Utd. – and Wilderland has thus beaten both Erebor and Dwarves Utd. and drawn with Anduin. Looked at in this light Wilderland would be the favourites and Anduin the second qualifier.

With or without the in-group friendlies the AKM considers Wilderland more or less safe qualifier just looking at their scoring and especially the spread of that scoring-responsibility to several players. With Oromë (4+2), Scatha (3+0) Elwë (2+4) and Galadriel (2+3) they have wide variety of finishers even if one or two are having a bad day. Especially Scatha seems to be on an upward trend: Scatha made no goals in the first two games, scored once in the third and twice in the last one. Their defence sure is vulnerable but as long as they keep on scoring even close to what they have done thus far they should qualify as it looks improbable both Anduin and Erebor would beat them – or that Dwarves Utd. would suddenly find enough scoring-magic from somewhere.

From the two teams then the mötley crew of Erebor looks like the stronger one shooting more and letting the opposition to shoot less. But then again, the quality of the Anduin offence is statistically better. The teams they have played against is varied and one should be careful to not draw too many conclusions from that fact. Just looking at the results could speak for Anduin being the stronger of the two as they lost to Valimar only 0-1, draw with Wilderland and beat Imladris. But most of us know how Valimar plays and the Wilderland game was pretty careful on both sides – and Erebor has beaten Eriador in a fairly competitive (half)game but on the other hand drawn with Misty Mts. in a tough match, which is not to their honour.

Both teams seem to have an even top-scorer as both Smaug and Grimbeorn have scored three goals. With Anduin the scoring and assisting is concentrated on the top three players – with long passes coming from the defencive half as well – whereas Erebor seems to be using it’s midfield to assist and the forwards to score in a tighter formation.



Group D

1. (r.1) FC Valinor, 113£
W - 4 (1,3,4,5)
D - 0
L - 0
13-5
A: (13) 31/62 – 41,9%
D: (5) 22/59 – 77,3%
O: 21,0% - 8,5%

2. (r.1) Reäl Valinor, 104£
W - 3 (3,3,4)
D - 0
L - 1 (1)
12-6
A: (12) 31/65 – 38,7%
D: (6) 21/60 – 71,4%
O: 18,5% - 10%

6. (r.2) Tirion, 83£
W - 3 (3,4,5)
D - 1 (2)
L – 0
16-10
A: (16) 34/74 – 47,1%
D: (10) 28/58 – 64,3%
O: 21,6% - 17,2%

10. (r.2) Armenelos, 108£
W - 2 (4,5)
D - 2 (2,4)
L - 0
6-4
A: (6) 21/51 – 28,6%
D: (4) 17/44 – 76,5%
O: 11,8% - 9,1%

Even if the AKM downgraded team Armenelos to rank 10, all the four teams of group D are within the ten best-ranked in the tournament: first, second, sixth and tenth. That should speak for itself.

Now it seems that we have to begin dropping the teams off from the qualification-speculations from the hosts Armenelos. They have not shown such flashing qualities in the friendlies that would show they are capable to beat two teams from the three they are going to meet. But there are two great “buts” here. First of all, they clearly have not played it with full force and especially their draw with Gondor was something they just amiably allowed. Secondly, they are playing at their legendary home-stadium and the fighting spirit they will produce backed by the proud Númenorian tradition and demanding crowds are cards one should pay heed to when speculating about the strengths and weaknesses of different teams.

It is also worth mentioning that Ar Pharazôn was pretty invisible in the first friendlies but finally became alive in the last one. So is he gearing up as the important games approach or was it just a random incidence? Armenelos has not been too convincing when it comes to scoring (a thing which the AKM predicted already before the friendlies) but can they overcome that as the group-stage begins? If Ar Pharazôn and Ar Adunakhôr find their scoring prowess – and they get quality assists to feed them – the AKM is willing to change it’s prediction, but unless that happens this year’s tournament will most probably be a great disappointment to the hosts.

Another team we have to treat as a serious candidate for staying in the group-phase is Tirion. Now that may sound ridiculous looking at the way they score – and if they had not played it cordially even with the Sea they could have four wins in their pocket from the friendlies. With Finwë (7+2), Aredhel (3+4) and Eönwë (4+0) as the most efficient forward-trio of all teams it looks incomprehensible the team might drop from the next rounds. But they can.

Tirion’s problem is the defence. They allow almost double the goals from all shots booted against them (on target or not) than any other team in this group. So even if they score a lot, they also allow a lot. They might win a shooting-race against Armenelos, but both Valinor-teams score effectively as well – and let in only half of the shots in compared to Tirion. So Tirion needs to shut their defences in ways unseen thus far if they want to beat either of the Valinor-teams – and that is something they have to do if they wish to qualify.

That leaves the two favourites to the group, FC Valinor and Real Valinor, to be considered.

FC Valinor won the game they played against one another but Real has had a bit tougher schedule overall. Their stats are more or less equal – leaning slightly towards FC, but looking at the scheduals kind of evens that small difference a bit. There is also a nice comparison. Tirion won The Havens 5-3 in a fairly competitive game whereas FC Valinor only won them 3-2 in a game they were clearly not giving their best effort – but Real Valinor won Hithlum 5-2 in a real match-up whereas in another quite serious meeting Tirion only won them 4-3.

So the AKM thinks the two teams start from quite an equal footing FC Valinor being the slight favourites to win the group. But in the end it comes down to some individual comparisons… Between the posts at the moment it seems Huan gives the edge slightly to FC against Tulkas on Real’s goal. The defences look so even it is hard to make a difference there – except for Tilion’s possible role as a clutch-player for Real – although thus far he has been no more efficient than Maglor on FC Valinor’s side (both have 0+2). Both teams have quite forward-minded midfields so we’d like to look at both the MF’s and the FW’s at the same time.

Fëanor’s sons Curufin (5+3) and Celegorm (2+1) showed their dangerousness playing forwards last year and this year they have been showing that last year was no coincidence – especially Curufin has proved himself to be one of the most deadly strikers of the whole tournament. Last year their effort was not enough as they lacked support, but this year it looks different with such figures as Yavanna (2+3), Idril (0+3) – and the surprise-card Argon (4+0) – backing up their offence and showing capabilities of scoring themselves as well.

But Real Valinor’s attack is as deadly: Miriel (4+3) and Arien (5+0) bring hard times to any defence and Nessa (2+2) has proved to be a sneaky and effective midfielder when having inspiring enough company. If Nerdanel (“only” 0+3) gears up to her normal level, Huan will have to show his best to repeat the win for FC Valinor in the group-phase.

In the end it looks like the Valinor-teams will qualify, but it is possible one of the other teams make their way forwards. But what the AKM will promise is that the two qualifiers will not be Armenelos and Tirion – even if the games at Númenor will be tough and nothing near predetermined. Some quality football then on offer there!