[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

Predictions - Round 2

Well, that was probably the worst week (in the prediction department) I've ever had. It goes to show this year's Cup will be the most difficult ever to predict. Not an excuse, just a statement of fact. To only go 7/16, and even do worse then TENT! wow, our standards and methods are much better. In the long run, that will win out.

This round, for TTN's own curiousity, we will report the results of what our "computer" (ACS2012 Edition) says after plugging in all the numbers. Followed by our expert's pick and analysis. For posterity purposes, my prediction will be the one I stand behind/the one that counts.

The essential weakness of the computer's predictions is it's designed to predict the results of 2 teams playing 10 matches against eachother. However, in the tournament, it comes down to a single match between Team A and Team B. TTN is just interested to see if all the stats they compile is worthwhile in accurately predicting results, and now we can get some true empirical data, by publishing both the computer's picks and the expert's.

GROUP A

1. The Downer (#32) vs Tol In Gaurhoth (#24)

ACS2012: 2 goal win for Tol-in-Gaurhoth

Boro's pick: Agrees with the computer on this one, a convincing win for TIG. TIG has more goals and conceded less, and all lazy sloppiness should have been left behind after the first game. A 3-1 win for the Werewolf Isles.

2. Angband (#9) vs Shire-Bree United (#23)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Angband

Boro's Pick: The numbers say in a 10 game series, Angband would win 6, Shire Bree 3, and 1 game a draw. So, it's a more competitive match then at first glance. Bombadil has wrecked havoc against Morgoth's teams before, but we'll again side with the computer's pick. Shire-Bree's defense nearly lost it for them against TIG, and now it will lose it against Angband. Angband wins 3-2.

GROUP B

1. Arnor (#27) vs Inter Beleriand (#28)

ACS2012: Draw.

Boro's pick: Turgon won't be as inspired against Arnor as he was saving 7/9 against Gondolin. While Arnor plays everyone straight up. No matter who the opponent is, they will play the same and give the same effort. Arnor wins 2-1.

2. Eriador (#4) vs Gondolin (#22)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Eriador

Boro's pick: Sometimes winning by only 1 goal is nerve wracking and a tightly contested match. This however, will be the most comfortable looking single goal win possible. Eriador is just top glass professionals who know how to win close games. 2-1 Eriador.

GROUP C

1. Erebor (#6) vs Wilderland (#2)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Wilderland

Boro's pick: Wilderland won Erebor in the friendlies, and just came off a convincing 3-1 win against Anduin. However, Erebor has clearly upped their effort since the 1st round friendly. The computer says a Wilderland win, I say 2-2 Draw.

2. Anduin (#16) vs Dwarves United (#31)

ACS2012: 2 goal win for Anduin

Boro's pick: Part of the convincing win thrown out by the ACS2012 is likely from Anduin's strong friendlies. Anduin is not as good as we originally believed, by Dwarves United are even worse then we thought possible. Anduin wins 2-1.

GROUP D

1. Tirion (#10) vs Real Valinor (#7)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Something is really concerning about Real Valinor getting thumped by FC. Although, the recipe for going goalless in the first match would be to face Tirion next. Then again, Tirion can also score a plethora of goals. Tough one to call, so we'll go with the computer here. 3-3 Draw.

2. Armenelos (#3) vs FC Valinor (#1)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for FC Valinor

Boro's pick: Armenolos showed why no one should view them as slouches in this group of death. With that said, FC Valinor has just been playing at a level beyond everyone else up to this point and until they show otherwise, we're going to stick with FC Valinor wins 2-1

GROUP E

1. The Sea (#15) vs Valimar (#11)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Everything about these two points to a 0-0 draw. The defenses are just that much better than the offenses (conceding 2-goals to Hithlum is not up to Ulmo's standard, but still nothing to be embarrassed about). Ulmo can shut down Valimar's complacent offense, and The Sea is a little more pro-active in the attack. The Sea wins 1-0.

2. Hithlum (#19) vs The Havens (#21)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Perhaps the biggest offensive explosion of the group friendlies in this one. Hithlum's defense won't stop The Havens, but Turin and co will cause even more chaos against The Havens. Hithlum wins 4-3.

GROUP F

1. Imladris (#25) vs Misty Mts (#17)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Misty Mountains

Boro's pick: This is an interesting match, with a lot riding on it for both teams. Imladris can't afford to lose, and Misty Mountains really needs the win since they close out the group stage against the best, Rohan. Unfortunately for the Mountain fortress...Draw 1-1.

2. Isengard (#18) vs Rohan (#5)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Rohan

Boro's pick: Isengard might pull off the shock and snatch away a draw (a win is extremely unlikely). Really what Isengard needs to do to be in decent position is at least get 1 goal, but even that is easier said then done. Rohan wins 2-0.

GROUP G

1. Angfauglith (#14) vs Doriath (#13)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: Nargothrond's offense appears unstoppable, so I wouldn't think there's something wrong with Angfauglith surrendering 2-goals. Doriath won't nearly be that aggressive, but can still likely get 1. Draw 1-1.

2. AC Beleriand (#8) vs Nargothrond (#12)

ACS2012: Draw

Boro's pick: AC Beleriand has had some very...uninspiring results, but even so they still haven't been beaten. Nargothrond's playing much better, but the defense will be under a lot more pressure then it was against Angfauglith (and it still gave up 2 goals). So. AC Beleriand wins 3-2.

GROUP H

1. Barad-Dur (#29) vs Gondor (#20)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Gondor

Boro's pick: Everything now and before has been pointing towards a Gondorian win...but there is such a thing as "stats do lie." Purely based on gut-feeling, that Sauron really couldn't care less about friendlies and was saving everything for the real tournament. Barad-dur wins 2-1

2. Minas Tirith (#26) vs Mordor (#30)

ACS2012: 1 goal win for Minas Tirith

Boro's pick: Minas Tirith appears to primarily want to counterattack, and they are definitely quite good at it. But is Mordor's formationally sound Nazgul a team that you can counter attack on? Barad-dur can definitely be stretched because of their aggression, I'm not so sure the same would work against Mordor. Draw 1-1.