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I wonder how deep an analysis of TH can go. Unlike LotR, TH was written as a straightforward entertainment for Tolkien's children. No-one has a greater love for TH than I do, but to be honest I think I'd struggle to come up with more than either an 'I really like the bit where...', or an exploration of Tolkien's sources/influences - which is just 'breaking a thing to find out what it is made of'.
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Though admittedly I hardly even dare read the CbC discussions, let alone participate, I think there might be a lot more in the Hobbit to discuss than what you'd expect. Every written work which somehow has an effect on people is worth discussing - at least, in my opinion - and I don't think that "I really like the bit where..." is any less valuable than analyzing hidden meanings, metaphors and irony in great detail. Besides, who knows what people could come up with once they start to read the Hobbit closely?
I'd vote the Hobbit, anyway, but that's mostly because the Silmarillion seems far too scary.
