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Rikae · 06-04-2015, 04:06 PM

Well, I have a minute and neither of them posted much, so:

Loslote:

Day 1

12 - Banter
22 - Arguing against tying the vote. Interesting reasoning: if we can lynch a wolf from each pack, the wolves will turn on each other instead of trying to kill gifteds, so we should take a chance to lynch a wolf, or so I gather. Seems an odd line of reasoning - we want to lynch a wolf in general, after all, and the wolves are against each other already (or at least, want to whittle the other pack down), and even if they are down one, they are most likely to prioritize the seer while s/he is at large in any event. So, odd. Maybe wolfish, just for thinking in terms of whittling down (the other) wolf pack.
23 - Clarifies about responding to phantom.
28 - False reveal is unlikely, but possible. Concerned about the dead deceiving us.
48 - Village has a 25% chance of lynching a wolf, wolves at night have a 15% chance. Actually wrong (though I didn't realize it at the time) because of the two kills: it's actually 27.75 that the wolves kill a wolf. Also, the wolves had a higher chance of killing a gifted than the 25% she gives: 43.75% (wow).
Could just be mistaken math. I thought it was right at first, too. However, it does mislead.
54 -Against a tie because of last post, also against letting dead decide lynch (so that people leave trails with their votes).
196 -Doesn't think Agan is suspicious, suspects Nog. Pre-Nogawagon.
205 -Don't rule Nog, Agan, Lommy out for being in the spotlight. because it's their playing style.
220 - Votes Nog.

Overall, looks safe, fairly consistent in pursuing Nog (little too consistent? I'm not sure), said some misleading things. Bad vibes.

Day 2

250 - Sally's theory about Rune being killed for looking wolfish not too far fetched. Well, it is far fetched (says me). Far-fetched theories are a specialty of Sally's, though, so I find Lottie's defense of it (and subsequent suspicion of Morm) much more worrying.
260 - Theorizing that a third packmate (not Morm) was implicated by Rune's death, and Morm's trying to protect that person. Ok, this is getting really convoluted and is based on something unlikely (Rune being a wolf) in the first place. Looks like trying to patch together a theory after the fact. Innocents can do that too sometimes, of course, to back up a hunch or an unformed impression. No conclusion.
293 - Continues defending her theory. Now, I agree with her that wolves don't just go for gifteds, but it remains their top priority, and Rune looking gifted seems to have more basis in, well, his actual posts. Her "the other pack went for phantom" argument seems especially odd. She's accusing morm of being a wolf who knows the truth of the night kill, but that's actually the feeling I get from her. That is, maybe her pack actually did think Rune was a wolf, so that theory seems most reasonable to her, and therefore morm seems like an easy (and possibly enemy-wolfish) target for speaking against it?
296 - Votes morm "for reasons stated above".

Conclusion: There's much to raise an eyebrow here. I could vote for Lottie.

Edit: X'd with Shasta onwards.

06-04-2015, 04:06 PM	#338
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,533	Well, I have a minute and neither of them posted much, so: Loslote: Day 1 12 - Banter 22 - Arguing against tying the vote. Interesting reasoning: if we can lynch a wolf from each pack, the wolves will turn on each other instead of trying to kill gifteds, so we should take a chance to lynch a wolf, or so I gather. Seems an odd line of reasoning - we want to lynch a wolf in general, after all, and the wolves are against each other already (or at least, want to whittle the other pack down), and even if they are down one, they are most likely to prioritize the seer while s/he is at large in any event. So, odd. Maybe wolfish, just for thinking in terms of whittling down (the other) wolf pack. 23 - Clarifies about responding to phantom. 28 - False reveal is unlikely, but possible. Concerned about the dead deceiving us. 48 - Village has a 25% chance of lynching a wolf, wolves at night have a 15% chance. Actually wrong (though I didn't realize it at the time) because of the two kills: it's actually 27.75 that the wolves kill a wolf. Also, the wolves had a higher chance of killing a gifted than the 25% she gives: 43.75% (wow). Could just be mistaken math. I thought it was right at first, too. However, it does mislead. 54 -Against a tie because of last post, also against letting dead decide lynch (so that people leave trails with their votes). 196 -Doesn't think Agan is suspicious, suspects Nog. Pre-Nogawagon. 205 -Don't rule Nog, Agan, Lommy out for being in the spotlight. because it's their playing style. 220 - Votes Nog. Overall, looks safe, fairly consistent in pursuing Nog (little too consistent? I'm not sure), said some misleading things. Bad vibes. Day 2 250 - Sally's theory about Rune being killed for looking wolfish not too far fetched. Well, it is far fetched (says me). Far-fetched theories are a specialty of Sally's, though, so I find Lottie's defense of it (and subsequent suspicion of Morm) much more worrying. 260 - Theorizing that a third packmate (not Morm) was implicated by Rune's death, and Morm's trying to protect that person. Ok, this is getting really convoluted and is based on something unlikely (Rune being a wolf) in the first place. Looks like trying to patch together a theory after the fact. Innocents can do that too sometimes, of course, to back up a hunch or an unformed impression. No conclusion. 293 - Continues defending her theory. Now, I agree with her that wolves don't just go for gifteds, but it remains their top priority, and Rune looking gifted seems to have more basis in, well, his actual posts. Her "the other pack went for phantom" argument seems especially odd. She's accusing morm of being a wolf who knows the truth of the night kill, but that's actually the feeling I get from her. That is, maybe her pack actually did think Rune was a wolf, so that theory seems most reasonable to her, and therefore morm seems like an easy (and possibly enemy-wolfish) target for speaking against it? 296 - Votes morm "for reasons stated above". Conclusion: There's much to raise an eyebrow here. I could vote for Lottie. Edit: X'd with Shasta onwards.