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Old 11-16-2015, 04:03 PM   #25
Boromir88
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GROUP D

4th. Arnor (OFF: 24, DEF: 15, GK: 19)

Arnor finds themselves in a group of First Age powerhouses. They've been in this position before and played admirably but still ended up eliminated. The Northern Rangers are experts at playing above their talent level and rising to the occasion against greater teams. But this year they're not playing a passive Valar, they're up against the greatest of Noldor firepower (Maeglin and Turgon, Miriel and Nerdanel) and one of the mightiest duo's the "Evils" can put together in Gothmog and Thuringwethil. Every team in this group has serious question marks when it comes to GK. Arvedui is the most experienced and arguably the best in Group D, but his stats just don't support he'll vault into being a Top-10 goalie. The defense is battle-tested and stingy, but it's inconceivable they can hold out indefinitely against the offensive powerhouses in this group. And while Arnor's offense is capable of late game heroics to baffle the footballing world, it can't consistently score twice a match, which is what will be needed for Arnor to advance in this trio of First Age buzz-saws. They will impact which 2 teams advance, but they won't be one of the two to advance.

3rd. Gondolin (OFF: 5, DEF: 25, GK: 24)

Maeglin is certainly a Top-8 FW, and you can make the case he's in the Top-5 discussion. Maeglin puts together one of the most impressive resume's in the playoffs in all of Arda. "In the playoffs" is an important qualifier though, because he can be absent in the group matches. Going against Anfauglith and Real Valinor though I don't think we'll see an absent Maeglin this year. He'll need playoff heroics for Gondolin to advance, and TTN will watch this group with great enthusiasm, because the performances promise to be a classic. Where Gondolin falls short is their defense leaks big time and Rog is often left with too little help. He's too mediocre behind such a porous defense. When he was behind Ulmo's Vinyamar defense, there was nothing getting through Rog, but his weaknesses are too easily exploited behind this Gondolin defense. Their only hope is psycho-Maeglin willing Gondolin to victory. Which is not impossible, but when that's the only odds in your favor, we'll take the teams that have a few more paths to victory.

2nd. Anfauglith (OFF: 13, DEF: 2, GK: 31)

Anfauglith has perhaps constructed the mightiest and tightest defense ever. I just have no idea what to expect from Haldir taking GK position for the first time. If we base it the Lord of the Haladin's performances in other positions, you can't expect much, but he will get enough protection from the defense. I will bet 2 Balrogs, a werewolf, and a great Lord of Gondolin, can stop whatever offense teams are able to throw at them. So, what's the problem? Why does Anfauglith seem to underperform and this team falls apart year after year? Some say it's the way Morgoth treats the team as a "little brother" and feeder program to the "Big Boys" Angband. It's a team trying to win respect, but so far they haven't played to earn it. More objective football minds will argue the offense has been way too pathetic and disjointed to help this superb lock-down defense. Gothmog doesn't live up to his contract, but is it all on the Balrog, when the mid-field leaves a lot to be desired in supplying him with enough goal-scoring chances? Gothmog is a proven finisher at the front. You don't put in Top-10 performances (10th in 2008, 9th in 2010) and not know how to put the ball in the net. There is validity to Arda.com having Gothmog as the #1 worst contract. The balrog is overpriced for what he brings to the team. Gothmog is capable of Top-10 performances for FWs, but we rank him in that 15-20 range, because he's had more performances outside the Top-10 (and even once outside the Top-20) than inside the Top-10. I think this year Anfauglith found a winning duo though with Gothmog and Thuringwethil. TTN's not saying there in anyway near the same universe as Turin-Beleg, Miriel-Nerdanel, Curufin-Celegorm..but it does suggest a better partnership than Gothmog-Ecthelion. Those two were goal-scorers, neither one are good providers and when together you can tell the offense wasn't in sync. Both times the Gothmog-Ecthelion duo failed (2009 and 2013). Thuringwethil is a better provider in the passing game and will feed Gothmog with better opportunities than he's had before.

1st. Real Valinor (OFF: 4, DEF: 9, GK: 18)

Real Valinor has top talent at every level of the pitch, but their depth and players besides the handful of stars are vulnerable and beatable. Nienna is a decent keeper, but once she loses confidence it unravels for her. Nienna can't put past mistakes behind her and let go of her grief after her confidence is shaken. Tulkas is probably best suited as a defender, and the best individual defender in this group. He will take the opponent's top scoring threat completely out of the game, every time. Thorondor is risky because the eagle is rather card happy and we'll see if Irmo can trap his opponents in a catatonic dream-state. Real Valinor's defense is beatable, it's just easier said than done, when you know your primary scoring threat will be neutralized by Tulkas. I don't think there's a defense able to keep Miriel-Nerdanel-Nessa off the board. Their skill together is just sublime, and rivals the Turin-Beleg duo. However, I think the days when they could just flat outscore opponents are past, and Real Valinor will have to stick with the same balanced approach to get far in this year's Arda Cup.
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