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Old 05-21-2006, 12:58 PM   #803
Roa_Aoife
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As promised:

Lalaith Analysis (I'm going to do this in the same style I did Diamond. I do not intend offense; I'm just trying to find the truth.)

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, denies being the turned wolf, Infamous Cannon-fodder theory.

I believe this theory has been the source of much of the suspicion in Lal's direction (and I'm curious as to who started that….), but to me it looks like a decent theory, and one that may be accurate. Because we don't know who the EW is at this time, we don't know if it's true, but it's not an inherently bad theory.

2nd - wonders about time

3rd - Worried that time has run out, Votes Loki, says it fits in with her cannon fodder theory

I'm curious, and perhaps she can answer this, if she meant that Loki was the fodder or the cannon? That is, was he the wolf supposed to be lynched to make another look better, or was he the wolf supposed to do the lynching.

Day 2
1st - wonders if the EW knew which wolf had been turned back, points out that unless Loki was telling the truth, her cannon fodder theory does not apply, disappointed about the seer's failed dreaming, wonders about the people who do not vote, makes list of Day 1's non-voters, says there were only two wolves during Night 2, says she trusts the phantom but every time the phantom is completely trusted the village suffers, disagrees with Diamond and Fea's suggestion to hunt out the Good Wizard.

Well, a lot was said in this post. The question about the EW knowing which wolf was turned seems to denote that she isn't the EW, but it could just be that she's trying to cover her tracks and make us think she really didn't know. She also pointed out that her cannon fodder theory didn't apply to Loki unless he was actually the turned wolf, which suggests that she doubted it at this time. Since she used her cannon fodder theory as her reason for voting him, it seems somewhat contradictory. I also wonder about her bringing up the non-voters. It had been stated several times before that the non-voters would be left alone till the village was smaller. Was she just curious or trying to lower the number of villagers?

2nd - Response to Spawn, clarifies theory

3rd - Response to Celuien, defends theory, supplies Diamond quote for Spawn

The defense of her theory was quite reasonable, and I find nothing really suspicious in it. The supply of a rather incriminating quote from Diamond doesn't look to good though.

4th - points out that the changed wolf might not have come forward because s/he didn't want to die, suggests SPM may have been the changed wolf

As someone who believed in Loki's innocence, I don't really like this statement, but as many people were saying something like this at the time, I don't think it singles her out.

5th - Suggests that Loki just wanted attention, doesn't think he was the turned wolf, thinks it would have been risky for the GW to pick him, offers apologies to Loki

This is weird for two things. I don't think the statement made about Loki just wanting attention was really fair of her. But then she apologized to him. Apologies = just plain weird.

6th - Responds to LMP's clarification of the rules

7th - Not convinced about Nogrod, says she's going to try to find wolves by instinct, is uncomfortable with Gurthang and Celuien, decides to vote Oddwen by process of elimination between the leaders in vote

This post is her weirdest one yet. She states that she's suspicious of Gurthang and Celuien, yet she votes Oddwen who she had no prior suspicion of because she's more wolf-like than Nogrod.

Day's 3 and 4 wil follow, but not necessarily together.
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