Elenrod: Today: the staggering numbers. And no, not those numbers. After 629 days of waiting, 352 players form 32 teams, play 64 matches, for the sake of one trophy. It’s the return of the Arda Cup.
The Matchday opens with a preview of the Arda Cup group stage, and we do so in stunning fashion, with not three, not four, but five pundits on the panel! First off, we have, finally a phantasy winner, Maikalomion of
ArdaCup.com Stats Report.
Maika: Mae govannen. Yeah, I finally got that monkey off my back.
Elenrod: And the man who continues to deny being an economist, Adam Smith.
Adam:
Noswaith dda. That's Welsh for ‘good evening.’ Not Scottish, mind.
Elenrod: And no, dear viewers, he hasn’t escaped us: captive blogger Felagundion.
Felagundion: I thought I was free.
Elenrod: Apologies, Felagundion, but you just fit so well in the show. And now we have two guests, because that's how special this show is. First, now a regular in the show, Iorithil of
Quenta Noldorin Sport.
Iorithil: Before anyone asks, I’ve no book to promote. I’m still in the process of writing one.
Adam: Haha, defensive much? But glad you’re back.
Elenrod: And… joining the panel for the first time, to provide us with a Middle-earth perspective to things, it’s Louis of
The Orthanc Times.
Louis: Hello, all. Glad to get the call-up.
Elenrod: And welcome to you. Now let’s begin with our preview, starting with Group A: Dwarves United, Misty Mts, The Sea, and Wilderland. Who would advance, who would be left behind?
Iorithil: On paper, the Sea are better than the rest of the group, but…
Adam: Yeah, their quality has not yet translated to success in the Cup. To be fair, they’ve been in somewhat tight groups in 2012 and ’13, so maybe this time they’ll finally take nine points from nine?
Felagundion: As for second, the Dwarves have the second highest wage bill, and they’re slightly more talented than the other two groups, but again…
Louis: I think Misty Mts will pip them to second place. They’ve got goals in them, and I’m sure they can contain Dwarf U’s attack.
Maika: I agree. We’ve seen for many years now that, overall, a good attack gives a team a better chance of getting out of the group than a good defence. That’s why Wilderland have a chance to put a scare on someone, with their Scatha-Thranduil-Bolg front line.
Iorithil: I somewhat agree that it’ll be down to that Dwarf U-Misty Mts fixture, but I’m afraid of the effect of refereeing decisions and the hatred both teams have for each other might have on that match.
Louis: Oh, I forgot about that. Especially now that there’s no Narvi on the Misty Mts to perhaps soften the Dwarves’ temper.
Elenrod: So to sum it up, we have:
Group A
- The Sea
- Misty Mts
- Dwarves United
- Wilderland
Elenrod: On to Group B, then. Angband, Doriath, Erebor, and the Havens.
Adam: A bonafide Arda Cup giant and a bunch of second-tier teams. And I have no favourite among said second-tier teams.
Felagundion: I think you can safely drop the Havens from the choices. They’ve had a massive drop in quality. Their best players, Círdan and Olwë, are probably the fourth- or fifth-best midfielder and defender in this group.
Iorithil: I agree with Felagundion. Doriath have a better squad, top to bottom, than the Havens, and Erebor have a much better attack. In fact, I think what their attack does to Doriath and how quickly Doriath’s front line gels are the keys to the group.
Maika: Doriath have now, in Eöl and Daeron, two top-drawer playmakers. And the Dark-Elf can score. You’d probably all disagree, but I think he’s the best attacking player in this group.
Louis: …Hm, the Dragons are better scorers, true, but overall, yeah. But do bear in mind he’s been playing with Fëanor for two years now.
Maika: But he also did contribute to 2011 Doriath’s title run. He’s a good player, especially when surrounded by good players… and he’s surrounded by good players in Doriath.
Adam: I dunno, man. Mablung had that hat trick against Nargothrond in 2012, but he’s not come even remotely close to a scoring form like that ever since. Maybe it’s just Nargothrond’s defence. Sorry, Fel.
Felagundion: That’s okay. It’s true, anyway.
Elenrod: To cap it off, your thoughts about the group?
Maika: Angband and Doriath.
Louis: I fancy Angband and Erebor.
Adam: I agree with Louis.
Iorithil: Hm, losing Bolg and Beorn will be a blow for Erebor, and Doriath have the better defence. Angband and Doriath.
Felagundion: The better teams on both ends, and with higher payrolls: Angband and Doriath.
Group B
- Angband
- Doriath
- Erebor
- The Havens
Elenrod: Moving on to Group C. We have Hithlum, Isengard, Rohan, and Tol-in-Gaurhoth.
Felagundion: I think this’ll be a short one.
Louis: Yup, it’d be Rohan and Isengard. …I kid, I kid. The Wolves and Hithlum, in that order.
Adam: I mean, what do you expect the Middle-earth teams to do? Would
any of their players get into Hithlum or TiG? Cirion as a left-back for Hithlum?
Maybe?
Elenrod: Who’ll take third place though? And would any of them have a chance against Hithlum?
Iorithil: To answer the second question first, no. And Isengard would edge Rohan for the higher consolation slot.
Elenrod: That was a short one indeed.
Group C
- Tol-in-Gaurhoth
- Hithlum
- Isengard
- Rohan
Elenrod: I suppose Group D wouldn’t be that foregone, with Anfauglith, Arnor, Gondolin, and Real Valinor in it.
Louis: We should probably get this out it of the way: Arnor have a chance. With Super Araphor they always have a chance, but realistically…
Adam: Real take the top spot, and Anfauglith and Gondolin have an almight battle for the second spot. I think Anfauglith would just about edge the Hidden City.
Felagundion: But didn’t you just say that 2013 Anfauglith’s midfield was, and I quote, ‘LOL’? Guess what: they haven’t addressed it.
And they lost Ungoliant!
Adam: Hmm, okay. Fair enough.
Maika: They lost Rian over the summer, who was their best midfielder.
Adam: That’s like choosing which Kardashian you like best. But carry on.
Maika: And Gondolin’s switch to a 3-5-2, with Idril and Elemmakil perfectly suited to own the flanks, matches up well against the Gasping Dust’s 4-4-2, especially since they have no wide midfielder of note to help overload Gondolin’s wing-backs.
Iorithil: Yeah, I think Gondolin are, by a small margin, the second best team in this group.
Elenrod: So to cap it off:
Group D
- Real Valinor
- Gondolin
- Anfauglith
- Arnor
Elenrod: Group E, then. And this is one of the groups whose games you can view exclusively here on MenelSport. Anduin, Imladris, Inter Beleriand, and Minas Tirith are the teams in this group.
Adam: Hahaha, I just want to watch how Inter would screw this up.
Surely they’ll make it out of the group this time, right?
Louis: Anduin’s the only team who could challenge them here, and on paper they’re much better than the Riverfolk.
Maika: Inter’s another team that’s switched to a 3-5-2. Their central midfield’s much weaker than Gondolin’s, but that shouldn’t be tested much in this group. And they have a much better defence—Imlach, NilpWight, and Beren, all proven players, forming a back three, with Lúthien and Hador bombing down the wings.
Felagundion: And you didn’t mention that they’ve somehow acquired the walking ticket to the semi-final, Huan. Wow. I bet that’s what turned NilpWolf’s head. He wouldn’t have transferred to such an star-crossed club otherwise.
Iorithil: I agree with TTN’s assessment of Minas Tirith. They’re a mess. They’ve lost three of their four stars, with Cirion, Éomer, and Firefoot moving to Rohan. Mardil won’t be enough to give this bunch a win against the rest of the group. I think they’d be hard-pressed to get even a point against Imladris.
Louis: Of course, Imladris aren’t in any good shape themselves. They’ve got no proven striker, or any goalscorer, in their squad. If the Stewards manage to keep a clean sheet against them—well, they’re probably not scoring on Imladris, either, but at least that’s a point.
Elenrod: So barring a karmic conspiracy, this group’s likely to end up:
Group E
- Inter Beleriand
- Anduin
- Imladris
- Minas Tirith
Elenrod: Let’s proceed to Group F, featuring Armenelos, Mordor, Valimar, and the Barrow-Downs.
Adam: Another group with two heavyweights, though one of them is flaky. But not to the extent of Inter though; Inter’s ability to wilt under pressure is just special.
Felagundion: Valimar won’t give quarter to Mordor or the Downers though, and Arien just burns lesser teams.
Iorithil: I agree. As long as Arien’s on that squad, they’re not a normal Manwë team. What
is more worrying are the Downer’s forwards, the Witch-king and Bombadil. You get them on their day, they just score on you. Are the two favourites ready to shoot back if that happens? I think yes.
Louis: Well, Wiki’s far more consistent, but yeah. Him and SallyWight give them the firepower to scare certain teams, especially if Bombadil’s feeling it.
Maika: As for Royals vs Powers… We’ve been through this in 2013, too, right? I’m reversing my prediction from that time: Armenelos have a chance to top the group, but I think Valimar are the better team.
Group F
- Valimar
- Armenelos
- The Barrow-Downs
- Mordor
Elenrod: Group G, another group covered exclusively by MenelSport. And what a group it is: AC Beleriand, Nargothrond, Tirion, and FC Valinor. All four teams made it out of their group in 2013, with AC Bel and FC Val ending up as runner-up and bronze medallists, respectively.
Felagundion: When we lost Orodreth and Finduilas and failed to bring in players of higher quality, I’ve given up. Just please, don’t concede five goals to AC Bel. Or to Tirion. Or to Curufin. I mean, FC Val.
Maika: Well, AC Bel
have lost a lot of continuity. The Imlach-Rochallor pairing was the bedrock of their defence, and can Húrin be as good a back-line leader as Fingolfin was? They also lost Eöl’s ability to complement Fëanor and the wingers, but they did get Tuor as a replacement.
Iorithil: Tuor’s more comfortable as target man, though, using his height to win headers and knock down balls for other attackers. Maybe they’ll have Fëanor and Tuor switching like him and Eöl used to do, except that it’s the Fëanor starting up front this time.
Elenrod: Okay, questions: who’ll top the group, and do Tirion and Nargothrond have a chance?
Felagundion: I’d be happy if the Cave Elves concede less than six goals total, never mind their points, and never mind if they get out of the group.
Adam: As for Tirion, they won’t give up, and they’ve kept a lot of continuity on both ends. But—
Louis: Fëanor and Curufin.
Adam: Exactly.
Maika: I think FC Val will top the group. They’re out for vengeance, and even though they’ve also replaced much of their defenders, at least they have the more settled midfield.
Group G
- FC Valinor
- AC Beleriand
- Tirion
- Nargothrond
Elenrod: And finally, we have Group H, featuring Middle-earth’s Barad-dûr, Eriador, Gondor, and Shire-Bree United.
Louis: There’s just no looking past Eriador and Barad-dûr. Gondor and the Black Tower were qualification rivals in 2013, sharing a group with FC Valinor, but whereas Sauron’s squad become increasingly improved, Gondor have steadily taken a step back. And Shire-Bree United are just a shambles, as a team and an organisation, as shown by that TTN exclusive.
Iorithil: Gondor have failed to build up from that 2012 knockout round run, failed to build up on the foundation given by their attackers Anárion and Eldacar. It didn’t help that Anárion was out of form in 2013. I wonder how he’d be this year.
Felagundion: I’m just shocked that Sauron’s bought an actual team, with actual defenders and midfielders, and that he has a chance of making it to the quarter-final while Nargothrond get destroyed at the group stage. Just kill me now.
Adam: Well, if they’re making the quarter-final, they’d have to beat the first seed of Group A, because Eriador’s not likely to concede first place in this group.
Maika: I agree, they just have better talent across the board. I wonder if NogWight’s gelled with the team this time. With Gil-galad learning the ropes of lone striker play, an extra attacker would ease the burden on Glorfindel.
Group H
- Eriador
- Barad-dûr
- Gondor
- Shire-Bree United
Elenrod: All right, then. Before we end, I’d like to ask you for any prediction for this upcoming Arda Cup. Last time around, Maika predicted three out of four semi-finalists correctly.
Adam: Oh yeah? Well, I predict that the two Beleriands and two Valinors will be this year’s final four.
Maika: Haha, that’s what I had as well. Although TiG and Hithlum… A possible Wolves-Real quarter-final clash will be something to behold.
Nilpaurion: As for me, if Nargothrond get a point—or, Eru forbid, three—I’ll be over the moon.
Iorithil: Again, I just want the games to start. I’m not any good at that long-term prediction business.
Louis: Same for me.
Elenrod: Haha, well then. Thank you, dear viewers, for seeing another episode of
the Matchday to the end. We’ll be back next week with our predictions for the first round of fixtures, as well as phantasy advice. Until then; bye for now.