[Brinniel]

Day 1

Originally Posted by Greenie

Not sure about Kath herself though - I'm not convinced she's plotting with Lottie, but her argument against Huin was odd.

Clearly has not dreamed of Kath at this point.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm speculating on a possible Pitchwolf who is trying to either protect packmate Nilp or lay the groundwork on an easy case against basically anyone who says anything about Nilp. Although there's also some merit in Shasta and Lommy's theory that he's the cobbler

Could she have dreamed of an evil Pitch? Considering she also speculates that he could be the cobbler, I'm guessing no.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I need to vote soon, right now could go for Pitch, Kath or Nilp. I'm on the fence about Huin but he probably wouldn't be my first choice.

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie. Vaguely uneasy about Brinn and Form, and not sure what to make of Nog and Legate repeatedly commenting on how uneventful it has been (could be frustrated innocents or could be wolves preempting criticism with "well, there was nothing to go on!") No read whatsoever on Sally (feel better soon hun!) or BG.

Note: She does end up voting Pitch.
It's possible Greenie dreamed of an innocent Shasta, Lommy, Rikae, or Mac. But considering she singles out Lottie, I suspect she was her Night 1 dream.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Greenie

I think Shasta's vote comes across as the least fishy of the lot, though admittedly this is simply due to timing; it was the first real vote in the game (sorry Nilp, not counting yours ), and before most of the action happened. But also his tone where he admits that Huin’s response made him feel slightly better but Huin’s still the one he’s most comfortable voting, looks genuine to me.

Rikae says Huin’s paranoia over Lottie and Kath setting him up looks like a guilty conscience, and is second to vote for him. Merits extra attention based on vote placement if Form or Nilp are wolves, but I’m not sure how likely this is given the general feel of the voting yesterDay. I’m notoriously bad at reading Rikae, and this could go either way – Huin would have been a very easy target for a wolf looking for a decent D1 argument against someone, but I could just as well see innocent Rikae finding him the most suspicious of the lot given how generally uneventful the Day was.

Nog votes for Huin after a case against him and several disclaimers on how little there is to go on. This combination looks pretty incriminating – textbook hand-washing wolf – but almost too much so to be true. He’s also quick to turn on Legate based on the Lottie kill, and while the argument has merit, it doesn’t make me feel much better about Nog; if the Huin lynch incriminated a wolf (or more than one), and they killed Lottie for the Huin comments rather than the Legate ones, setting Legate up would be a good way of distracting the village from the Huin lynchers. Then again, the argument about Legate seems plausible too. Could even be wolf-on-wolf? (Sorry, speculation mode went into overdrive.)

Kath seals Huin’s fate with a fourth vote. There were still plenty of people left to vote though, so she wouldn’t necessarily have known this. Her vote was certainly consistent with her earlier pre-vote post where she said she’d like to go for either Huin or Nilp. That post was one of the starting points of the whole suspicion on Huin, and I could see Kathwolf leaving that to take root and then come back later and vote for him because she suspected him all along so she can’t be faulted for jumping on a bandwagon. But as with Nog, this looks so contrived it makes me wonder if Kathwolf would really do this. She would have known that orchestrating an innocent lynch is bound to get her noticed early on when normally she’s capable of skating by quite comfortably for Days before anyone even considers the possibility of her being guilty.

Overall? I’d be surprised if there isn’t a wolf on this list. Nog and Kath look like the most obvious candidates, but almost too obvious to be true. Rikae makes me uneasy (admittedly they always do) but there’s less of an argument to back it, and I don’t think Shasta’s vote tells us much either way given its timing.

If she dreamed of anyone from here, my guess would be Shasta, but it's not clear.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Incidentally, I did have a brief look at Legate's posts. Not much stood out to me either way - there's some game mechanics talk and comments on how quiet it is, but also what was probably the only list post of D1. He votes for Form, saying he prefers him to Huin. Had previously said Brinn and Form discussed wolf strategies in a way that looked like they had already had the discussion the Night before. No alarm bells here. D2 he analyses first the Lottie kill and then the Huin lynch. His post on Lottie did make me raise an eyebrow - he mentions framing him as a possible motive, though to his credit doesn't seem to think it likely. In the same post, he also pretty much discredits the idea that the wolves thought Lottie was the Seer who dreamed of Huin by saying they would think a potential Seer who dreamed an innocent on N1 was "no big deal". This is a distinctly weird argument, but would be even weirder if Legate was a wolf since the Huin theory would be a good counter-argument against the suspicion he would have known he'd come under.

Overall, reading Legate's posts made me feel somewhat better about him - especially the last bit about actively discrediting an argument that would work in his defence. (Unless he's the NW, in which case all bets are off.) What I do find interesting though is the dynamic between Nog and Legate as each of them now seems to think the Lottie kill incriminates the other. *fetches popcorn* Joking aside though, this unnerves me as I think there's still a decent chance they're both innocent - Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.

If Greenie did dream of Legate, it did not happen on Night 2.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm currently most uneasy about Nog and Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of Rikae and Brinn, and flip-flopping on Legate and Mac.

Lommy and Sally are securely under my radar, and while Sally is understandable, Lommy is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too. Nilp seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself. I'm also leaning innocent on BG and to some extent Form (although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).

Shasta looks like he may be the most likely Night 2 dream based on this post.

Originally Posted by Greenie

It's getting close to bedtime for me, and since someone has to get the ball rolling, it might as well be me. I feel most comfortable going for

++ Kath

I've said this before - she set Huin up as a suspect (based on reasoning that didn't really hold water, ie. saying Huin probed others without voicing opinions on them himself when he'd done more of that than almost anyone else at that point), left it to take root and then came back and voted for him once others already had. It's consistent in a way that looks choreorgaphed rather than genuine.

My other option was Nog, but I have more reservations about him than Kath at the moment.

Could she dreamt of an evil Kath? It's possible, but if she had, I don't know that she would've wavered between Nog and Kath like she did.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Greenie

Brinniel – I’m not sure what to make of her. Her D1 vote was a very safe one for BG, D2 she was the nail in Nog’s coffin, though with all that chaos yesterDay I can’t be sure she actually knew she was. I also don’t like how both Sally and Mac seem happy to give her a pass because she’s consistent.

Formendacil – Gives me a headache. I still think the Cobbler theory is a possibility, given his discussion of Gifteds and potential Cobbler-hinting early on D1. I haven’t seen anything particularly wolfy from him per se, but I agree with Shasta that there’s a possible pattern to him ending up as the runner-up but not lynched twice in a row now.

Kath – Possibly my best lead at the moment. Her D1 Huin vote is still pretty suspicious in how it was orchestrated, and a vote for Nilp D2 doesn’t make her look any better – it was the second vote for Nilp so can’t be called an outright throwaway, but also Nilp wasn’t a very likely lynchee so keeps her nose clean. I don’t like how careful she’s playing – I mean, she’s always careful to some degree, but this looks a bit too deliberate.

Legate – Another possible wolf, especially given the Lottie kill and the odd comments at the end of yesterDay. Not sure what to make of his interaction with Kath, though – his talk of a Kathwagon yesterDay looked sketchy, but there was a bit on D1 where he misremembered BG’s vote for Form as following Kath instead of Huin. This would be an unlikely mistake to make if they were fellows, as I’d expect him to naturally keep tabs on what his fellows do and who they vote for.

Macalaure – Another headache. I’ve agreed with him a lot over this game, but I’m not at all comfortable with his posting toDay and how he’s suddenly convinced Form is a wolf. I’ll reserve judgment until I hear back from him though as I think I might have misunderstood something.

Nilp – I feel like I’ve gotten a better read of him since he stopped trying to commit suicide, and I’m not too worried at the moment.

Pitchwife – Definitely want to take a look at him toDay. I don’t like how he was suspected on D1 (including by yours truly) and somehow managed to slip by fairly unnoticed yesterDay. His Nog vote isn’t doing him any favours either, especially if Kath is a wolf.

Rikae – Like Nilp, I feel somewhat better about her. I had a quick read through her posts after yesterDay as she was involved in both lynches, but her reasoning looks pretty genuine to me. Additionally, I somehow think a Rikaewolf would play either more careful (as in, steering away from being implicated in innocent lynches twice in a row) or more confrontational/manipulative.

Sally – I’m getting slightly uneasy about her. Her list post, especially regarding Form and Brinn, seems somewhat contrived - as in, the logic looks off from an innocent POV. Nothing more substantial yet, though.

Shasta – I like to think I’m okay at reading him, and still get more or less an innocent Shasta -vibe.

Lommy – Also starting to worry me. She’s somehow more slippery and careful than usual, and pretty much under everyone’s radar. Part of this might just be due to her being around less than usual, but I don’t think that’s all of it. Another one I’d love to read through toDay if I have time.

Another innocent Shasta clue. I keep thinking she must've dreamed of Legate on Night 3, but she still remains very suspicious of Kath so I wonder if maybe she was a dream after all.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Finally, I like that Rikae and Shasta are back and I think they both sound like their innocent selves poking around for reactions (and getting them). Lommy is still worrying me, and Mac is still a headache. I’m voting soon and unless someone gives me a better argument in the next fifteen minutes it’s going to be for either Kath or Legate.

Originally Posted by Kath

++ Legate

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her. Meanwhile, I'm still suspicious of Legate for a) the Lottie kill, b) his weird reaction to the Lottie kill that I agree looks rehearsed, c) his role in the Nog lynch, d) woefulness about late voting without effort to actually change it that essentially amounts to less accountability for votes, and e) general feeling of Mr Agreeableness (sorry Pitch, I know it's a trigger word ) or something not quite right - I recall innocent Legate being bigger on grand theories and generally giving more of an active vibe rather than mournful witness of unfolding last-minute chaos.

Okay, with that last post, maybe she didn't dream of Kath after all.

Brinn's guesses for Greenie dreams:

Night 1: Lottie
Night 2: Shasta
Night 3: Legate

If that's right, then it makes me feel good about Shasta. Unfortunately that would mean her other dreams are dead which isn't as helpful (hopefully we can get an idea of her Night 4 dream with toDay's medium vote).

It's possible she dreamt of Kath, but I find it less likely. Still - it doesn't make Kath look very good since she did suspect her for two straight Days. Could the wolves have worried that Greenie dreamed of two wolves? I will need to take a look at Kath's posts along with Legate, though that will need to wait for a few hours at least.