The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

Coppermirror · 08-25-2013, 12:16 PM

Augh, I've been delayed severely by having to keep an eye on a sick person. They're asleep for now, so I can come back to my analysis for a bit. Hopefully I'll be able to get it all done.

Analysis - McCaber

Nothing to say here, but at least he's finally arrived. And - I see he's claiming to be the remaining innocent lover. My initial assumption is that he's probably telling the truth. If he isn't, the remaining one will know he's guilty and could and would come straight forwards so we can decide which one to lynch.

Analysis - Boro

Posts #60, #61, #69 - nothing to judge guilt or innocence on there.

#93 - Thinks something is off about Kath. I agree with the point about post #54, but I don't know about the others; I can't claim to have a good grasp on Kath's usual behaviour. Will have to come back to this points later on when analysing her. He votes Kath. May have been influenced by Echo's very firm and now retracted statement?

There doesn't seem to be anything especially suspicious about Boro there, but he's said so little that that doesn't mean much. At #132 he still suspects Kath and lists a few others too, and will come back with reasons. I'll have to wait to see those.

It seems to me at first glance that Boro and Kath are unlikely both to be sorcerers. There were still people who hadn't voted when Boro placed his one, although he could probably have guessed that I was likely to place a vote for Legate. Boro wasn't going solely on feelings but had some reasoning to support his vote, so people might reasonably have followed it, which means it was likely to be a genuine attempt to get Kath lynched regardless of his guilt or innocence. By similar logic and looking at the voting record, Lottie may be even less likely to be part of a sorcerer team with Kath, as she placed the third vote and that put Kath in a fair bit of danger. Either Holby or Steve's votes could have been sorcerous ones in order to save her (...but could also have been attempts to lynch innocent Legate). Anyway, I'll come back to those people later.

Analysis - Holby

I am a bit curious about Holby. Is there anyone who can venture an opinion about whether Holby is acting in a usual way for her in this game?

As Holby's a long-time player returned after a long absence, it was unlikely that people would want to lynch her on Day 1. She could have been relying on that. And she seems to be having fun early on Day 1. It's good she gave a list of suspicions at #33, but no reasoning was given with it, and there's some doubt about whether and to what degree it was serious.

At #91 she doesn't like having any abstaining voters, especially on Day 1. Which is fair enough. Says she doesn't like Legate and Greenie wagon jumping on me after Lommy's post. Seems to have missed noticing that Legate's post was probably cross-posted and that he probably didn't see Lommy's or even the post she was reacting to. It's hard to draw a conclusion from this.

Analysis - Echo

At #49 tries to vote for Kath, and actually does so at #66. Sounds very, very firm about it.

#67 - when Inzil asks why they voted for Kath based on something Kath didn't say, replies that it's a misquote "or perhaps im just saying this???".

The next Day they come out with a small list of suspicions, ending again with a mysterious statement about how "if i die today or tonight you will get no further". Goes on to make some other vague statements about suspicions.

At #126 explains that the Kath vote was due to a reason they later decided against but that their suspicion of somebody else was stronger. Lommy asks if that person is Holby. At #128 Echo explains that the problem was with Holby's vague posts, especially at #128, and makes some sort of point about syllables.

As several people have pointed out, Echo could very well be the confused, innocent newbie they claim to be. ToDay, Echo's reasoning appears a bit better and clearer than yesterDay's, which could be a natural sign of feeling more confident about the game. But if Echo is in fact a newbie sorcerer, they went all of the first Day of their first game without having spoken to the other sorcerers beforehand, and so their behaviour might change after the first Night. I don't think there's been a major change in the sort of way they've been talking. This doesn't mean I trust Echo, but I'm willing to give them a chance for another Day.

08-25-2013, 12:16 PM	#159
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	Augh, I've been delayed severely by having to keep an eye on a sick person. They're asleep for now, so I can come back to my analysis for a bit. Hopefully I'll be able to get it all done. Analysis - McCaber Nothing to say here, but at least he's finally arrived. And - I see he's claiming to be the remaining innocent lover. My initial assumption is that he's probably telling the truth. If he isn't, the remaining one will know he's guilty and could and would come straight forwards so we can decide which one to lynch. Analysis - Boro Posts #60, #61, #69 - nothing to judge guilt or innocence on there. #93 - Thinks something is off about Kath. I agree with the point about post #54, but I don't know about the others; I can't claim to have a good grasp on Kath's usual behaviour. Will have to come back to this points later on when analysing her. He votes Kath. May have been influenced by Echo's very firm and now retracted statement? There doesn't seem to be anything especially suspicious about Boro there, but he's said so little that that doesn't mean much. At #132 he still suspects Kath and lists a few others too, and will come back with reasons. I'll have to wait to see those. It seems to me at first glance that Boro and Kath are unlikely both to be sorcerers. There were still people who hadn't voted when Boro placed his one, although he could probably have guessed that I was likely to place a vote for Legate. Boro wasn't going solely on feelings but had some reasoning to support his vote, so people might reasonably have followed it, which means it was likely to be a genuine attempt to get Kath lynched regardless of his guilt or innocence. By similar logic and looking at the voting record, Lottie may be even less likely to be part of a sorcerer team with Kath, as she placed the third vote and that put Kath in a fair bit of danger. Either Holby or Steve's votes could have been sorcerous ones in order to save her (...but could also have been attempts to lynch innocent Legate). Anyway, I'll come back to those people later. Analysis - Holby I am a bit curious about Holby. Is there anyone who can venture an opinion about whether Holby is acting in a usual way for her in this game? As Holby's a long-time player returned after a long absence, it was unlikely that people would want to lynch her on Day 1. She could have been relying on that. And she seems to be having fun early on Day 1. It's good she gave a list of suspicions at #33, but no reasoning was given with it, and there's some doubt about whether and to what degree it was serious. At #91 she doesn't like having any abstaining voters, especially on Day 1. Which is fair enough. Says she doesn't like Legate and Greenie wagon jumping on me after Lommy's post. Seems to have missed noticing that Legate's post was probably cross-posted and that he probably didn't see Lommy's or even the post she was reacting to. It's hard to draw a conclusion from this. Analysis - Echo At #49 tries to vote for Kath, and actually does so at #66. Sounds very, very firm about it. #67 - when Inzil asks why they voted for Kath based on something Kath didn't say, replies that it's a misquote "or perhaps im just saying this???". The next Day they come out with a small list of suspicions, ending again with a mysterious statement about how "if i die today or tonight you will get no further". Goes on to make some other vague statements about suspicions. At #126 explains that the Kath vote was due to a reason they later decided against but that their suspicion of somebody else was stronger. Lommy asks if that person is Holby. At #128 Echo explains that the problem was with Holby's vague posts, especially at #128, and makes some sort of point about syllables. As several people have pointed out, Echo could very well be the confused, innocent newbie they claim to be. ToDay, Echo's reasoning appears a bit better and clearer than yesterDay's, which could be a natural sign of feeling more confident about the game. But if Echo is in fact a newbie sorcerer, they went all of the first Day of their first game without having spoken to the other sorcerers beforehand, and so their behaviour might change after the first Night. I don't think there's been a major change in the sort of way they've been talking. This doesn't mean I trust Echo, but I'm willing to give them a chance for another Day.