[the phantom]

Scenarios: Best Case and Worst Case
MESPN Football Round Table Results

We here at MESPN asked some of our Football round table contributors to come up with best and worst-case scenarios for each team in the field. In the best-case scenarios the rule-of-thumb for advancement is that a squad is allowed to pull one reasonable upset, one other team is allowed to pull an upset (allowing them to face the weaker squad or allow them to advance in first position), and the group opposite them is allowed to have one squad finish out of position (again, allowing for a weaker opponent). Essentially this guarantees the best-case somewhat probable scenario.

And just because one squad has a higher “BEST” does not mean that squad is superior head-to-head. It may just indicate a combination of a tough group and a likely tough playoff draw.

With worst-case it’s a bit more art than science, as technically anyone can be left out in the cold after the group stage. But to add a bit of diversity in answers, we’re going with more conventional logic and not assuming multiple upsets.

So anyway, not true best/worsts here, but rather with likelihood factored in.

GROUP A
Dwarves United
BEST—quarterfinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Misty Mts
BEST—quarterfinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

The Sea
BEST—Champion
WORST—1st round playoffs

Wilderland
BEST—quarterfinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Comments: Everyone agreed that The Sea would be going forward—they’re too solid top to bottom and more threatening on offense after adding Earendil and moving Osse forward, and have the size to negate the likes of Durin’s Bane and Scatha in group, plus the patience and tactical execution to keep the pressure on even the Dwarves United defense. Basically we can’t see them getting upset more than once, and we also can’t see one of the other three clearly separating themselves from the rest of the pack to take advantage (i.e. setting up a 3-team tie with 6 points & going forward alongside the squad that upset Sea). We gave them a best-case of Champion because we feel they have the talent and approach to go far. We wouldn’t like their chances of running a playoff gauntlet of Eriador-Angband-TIG-FCVal or similar, but frankly no team has a good chance of pulling that off, thus we are willing to give the “champ” designation because The Sea has as good a chance as anyone, particularly as odds are good of drawing an opponent they’ll be clearly favored against in the opening round (unlike Group B or F for instance where even winning the group will likely put you up against a tournament favorite).

We gave the other three a best-case of the quarters, assuming that (1) The Sea will claim one spot, and (2) the second-finisher will likely be facing Eriador in the opening round. The best chance of seeing the quarters would be to upset The Sea or to have Eriador get upset in their group and thus pushed out of the top qualifying spot. They’d probably root for Gondor to qualify ahead of Barad-Dur on account of Sauron, but either would be a fight.

GROUP B

Angband
BEST—Champion
WORST—1st round playoffs

Doriath
BEST—semifinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Erebor
BEST—1st round playoffs
WORST—eliminated in-group

The Havens
BEST—quarterfinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Comments: We debated on Angband’s “champ” designation. They nearly defeated last year’s runner-up, AC Beleriand, and we felt that the slight tweaking to their lineup in the offseason is a step forward. But while we liked the team on paper, we were aware that winning their group will put them against the Group G runner-up, and Group G is definitely this year’s “group of death”. The prospect of facing AC Beleriand or FC Valinor in the opening round nearly made us subtract one round from Angband’s best case and knock them down to runner-up, but in the end we felt that they deserved the “champ” label since they do possess the talent to make a run through anyone. A couple of our panelists listed them as head-to-head favorites against all the Group G power squads anyway, meaning that beating them, while tough, would not technically qualify as an upset.

The other three squads all have a shot at advancing with Angband. Erebor has defenders comfortable marking Ancalagon and Havens and Doriath might both be vulnerable to a hot day by Smaug, Havens is the steadiest and would be able to effectively switch tactics depending on where the game stands, while Doriath has the overall difficult to contain offense now that they’ve brought the creative Eol into their midfield and can feed him quickly, plus Melian always organizes a solid defense.

We all agreed that Erebor wouldn’t be escaping the first round, as they simply aren’t equipped to defend the attacks a Group G squad would bring. Even the 3rd and 4th ranked Group G squads (Tirion & Nargothrond) would likely be trouble given the ability of Finwe, Finrod, etc. to make long runs and beat defenders on the dribble, and Erebor’s aerial defenders don’t exactly excel at that. The Havens is more capable of controlling the pace and defending as a team, so they would have the ability to escape the first playoff if they got a fortunate matchup, but beyond that is a stretch. Doriath however we designated as “semis” because the athleticism of Carcharoth and Melian and sound play at the rear combined with the striking ability of Elwe and Mablung and the defense-breaking runs/passes from Eol give Doriath a puncher’s chance at pulling a real upset even if they don’t draw a weaker opponent.

GROUP C

Hithlum
BEST—Champion
WORST—1st round playoffs

Isengard
BEST—1st round playoffs
WORST—eliminated in-group

Rohan
BEST—eliminated in-group
WORST—eliminated in-group

Tol-In-Gaurhoth
BEST—Champion
WORST—quarterfinals

Comments: Two real contenders here, and that makes it next to impossible for the other two squads to count on a run. We gave Isengard the nod over Rohan to have a shot to pull the shocker, primarily thanks to the tough-to-contain Saruman working with the twin Ents up front. With Saruman’s accuracy feeding their size and power a sudden goal is always a threat. Frankly, though, we think Isengard can’t keep Hithlum or TIG off the scoreboard, but we didn’t want to give a “no chance” to both non-favorite best cases.

We judged Hithlum and TIG both to be worthy of the “champ” designation. TIG is obvious—they are the defending champs, and though they lost the extremely talented Draugluin and Thuringwethil they managed to nab an Elvish trio (Orodreth, Finduilas, Edrahil), and we think they’ll be a good fit. While the former duo brought amazing athleticism, TIG isn’t exactly short on that trait, thus filling in the gaps with heady players with decent ball skills that distribute well seems a good solution. Hithlum has the proven Turin/Beleg up front supported this year by newcomer Fingolfin, so obviously they can score on anyone. At the back they’re basically the same as last year, and though it was their defense that let them down against TIG in last year it’s good enough to allow their offense to outscore the opposition. Finishing 1st or 2nd in this group might not make a difference depending on who wins Group F, though TIG is likely keen to avoid Valimar as they really have Armenelos’s number whereas Valimar tends to play motivated against beast-laden squads.

GROUP D

Anfauglith
BEST—runner-up
WORST—eliminated in-group

Arnor
BEST—eliminated in-group
WORST—eliminated in-group

Gondolin
BEST—quarterfinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Real Valinor
BEST—Champion
WORST—1st round playoffs

Comments: We had some definite disagreements on our expert panel regarding Group D. Three of us actually saw Anfauglith with the most potential, but there were a couple doubters that thought the midfield was too suspect and that as amazing as the defense is Haldir doesn’t have what it takes to make the big saves late in the playoffs. Thus we compromised and said “runner-up” and labeled them as the potential upset victim of the talented third-place squad, Gondolin.

Arnor is often the underdog everyone loves to root for, but we think the order is too tall in this group. Real has proven championship-quality talent and Anfauglith is looking better than ever, and a solid Gondolin led by elite scorer Maeglin can never be counted out. We gave Gondolin quarters as best-case on the grounds that Maeglin and the offense can potentially carry the team out of group and past on opening round clash, but the deck is stacked too far against them to expect more—not without adding another piece (which it’s too late to do this year).

Regarding Real’s lineup shuffle, we like Tulkas moving out of the goal and having the potential to mark elite scorers before they can get their shot, and we expect Nienna to at least be solid between the posts. We’re split on whether bumping Miriel and Nerdanel to the very front will work—they did very well supporting a threatening striker, but perhaps they can make it work, playing an offense similar to AC last year where depending on the situation they slide to the wings and provide pinpoint feeds or on transitional opportunities they stick to the center to receive it, utilizing their flare for fantastic first-touches.

GROUP E

Anduin
BEST—semifinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Inter Beleriand
BEST—runner-up
WORST—1st round playoffs

Imladris
BEST—1st round playoffs
WORST—eliminated in-group

Minas Tirith
BEST—eliminated in-group
WORST—eliminated in-group

Comments: Our panelists found themselves split a few times in this group. While a couple felt Inter was a legitimate threat to win the cup, the rest were tentative to bank on a group newly come together, particularly with the potential of facing Anfauglith in the first playoff round, a squad that looks uniquely equipped to stifle Inter’s dangerous-looking offense. In fact two of our panelists thought Anduin would look better against Anfauglith due to their fantastic midfield advantage and the presence of monster-stopper Fram and the speed and size of Grimbeorn and Felarof at the rear.

Of the remaining two we saw Imladris as the squad with the hope of supplanting one of the group favorites. As solid as Minas Tirith is, we felt their speed/quickness at the back was less than Imladris and that would be a problem against Inter, not to mention their careful ball-control attack would be better at attacking Anduin than set pieces and such that the Gondorians execute so well. But of course their position could easily change if MT wins the head-to-head. No matter what, we certainly don’t like their odds of both escaping their group and defeating their Group D counterpart.

GROUP F

Armenelos
BEST—semifinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Mordor
BEST—eliminated in-group
WORST—eliminated in-group

Valimar
BEST—Champion
WORST—1st round playoffs

The Barrow-Downs
BEST—quarterfinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Comments: The entire panel agreed that Valimar was the team to beat here. With Eonwe joining the defense and the long-awaited Arien-Tilion pairing up front Valimar is looking tough this year, and it helps that two of their opponents in-group feature Nazgul and similar, meaning that Manwe and company will have the on-switch flipped. Armenelos is definitely the other primary threat, but the presence of Nazgul always has a chance of creeping mortals slightly off their game, thus they are the team we picked to be susceptible to the upset.

Barrow-Downs is the team likely the pull the upset. After years of seemingly being an afterthought, the Downers should be taken seriously this year, featuring an offense with real scoring flare and a defense shored up by a Werewolf. If they happened to slip into the playoffs we have to give them a shot at pulling off a big upset, but asking them to go beyond the quarters is too much for this year with Valimar in group and TIG or Hithlum likely waiting in the first round and quality beyond of course.

GROUP G

AC Beleriand
BEST—Champion
WORST—1st round playoffs

Nargothrond
BEST—eliminated in-group
WORST—eliminated in-group

Tirion
BEST—semifinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

FC Valinor
BEST—Champion
WORST—eliminated in-group

Comments: Ouch, this group hurts to look at. Even with the offensive firepower Nargothrond has we’re writing off their chances—this group is just too tough. Tirion has the best chance at an upset, with skill and pace up and down the lineup. It’s particularly a luxury to have three sons of Feanor at the rear to help contain their father and brothers on AC and FC.

Between AC and FC, both obviously have the guns to shoot for the title, but we gave AC the nod to guaranteed go forward because no one could imagine Feanor exiting in groups—he just has that aura where you can believe he’ll conjure any sort of magic to avoid elimination. Both FC and AC will have an eye on Group B, hoping to avoid a first round clash with Angband. Not that these squads can’t beat anyone, but there are easier ways to start a title run. The match between AC and FC will likely decide the group, and will doubtless be one of the most anticipated group-play matches.

GROUP H

Barad-Dur
BEST—semifinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Eriador
BEST—Champion
WORST—1st round playoffs

Gondor
BEST—quarterfinals
WORST—eliminated in-group

Shire-Bree United
BEST—eliminated in-group
WORST—eliminated in-group

Comments: Eriador is of course the favorite here, with a redesigned offense and the addition of Celebrimbor to the back we can’t imagine them left out in the cold in groups. Their primary worry is avoiding The Sea in the first round. After that it’ll probably be top teams, but Eriador has the proven mettle to be considered a true contender.

Barad-Dur’s non-star pieces might be victimized against the great powers, but you never know when Sauron will single-handedly make up for it with good play and strategy, thus we considered them a threat to make a run to the semis, pulling off an upset along the way. Gondor we judged capable of getting past their long-time rivals, but asking more than one upset of them in the playoffs seemed unlikely considering the potential first and second round foes. Shire-Bree meanwhile is the write-off squad of this group—they’ve let too many players slip away from them the past couple years.

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Contributors- Philip McPhantom (MESPN Lead Football Coordinator), Ruharg the Red (Monster Magazine Lead Sports Editor), Ar-Tar-Aradil (Westernesse Weekly sports writer, NAAF President), Adanel (Football wise-woman for Dor-Lomin Athletic Digest), Finwanoro (Football columnist for The Tirion Times and MESPN) Haldan (MESPN Gondor League correspondent), Arvagil (MESPN CLF & Eriador League correspondent), Glain (Sports Editor for Dwarf Diversions Magazine), Mortakh (Football columnist for The Minas Morgul Monitor and MESPN)