[Nerwen]

Day Two

Lottie

#107.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Maybe this could have been seen as a Seer hint? For the most part, though, Zil was fairly non-committal. He certainly didn't jump in guns blazing saying "x is evil", so I think he was probably a no-trace kill.

I have said (#148) why I don’t like this post, but here it is again:

Originally Posted by me

Thing is, as I said in my analysis of Zil, his posts taken together might well have given off a gifted vibe, but that one by itself actually doesn’t look much like a hint. Through paranoid eyes, this looks rather like someone who has, in fact, studied Zil’s posts in detail, but wants to appear as if she hasn’t– and is also trying a bit of misdirection.

#115.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Echo, while frustratingly (and, it seems, purposefully) vague, does come off to me at least as being simply a nervous newbie. Unless he/she (did we ever get clarification on that point?) does something glaringly eeeeeevil, I'm inclined to give him/her an extension on his/her newbie pass.

Holby alarms me, but I get the impression that's just her style. Makes me nervous, though - it's too easy to hide under that.

Though I didn’t say actually as much, the first part of this struck me as being, at best irresponsible– letting the newbie think it’s all right to go on playing like that. The other one, on our known wolf is... well, it’s ambiguous.

#147.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If you are a sorcerer, then you know who the other sorcerers are - and, by extension, you know the other sorcerers aren't. If you want to suspect anyone other than your fellow sorcerers, you have to fake suspicion.

On another note, I don't know what to think of Holby anymore. Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused.

YesterDay, Kath was my strongest suspicion, and I suppose she still is, but only by default. I'm mostly on the fence with her, leaning just a bit towards eeeeevil, but I'll probably spend more time looking over her posts later on to maybe see if I can work out where that feeling is coming from and whether or not it's justified.

So why hadn’t Lottie dreamed Kath the Night before, if Kath was her “strongest suspicion?”


#160. regrets lack of activity; comments on McCaber’s reveal:

Originally Posted by Lottie

I...don't think this is a move a sorcerer would make, especially not on Day 2 - it seems too risky. Can we be confident enough in that to write him off as a known innocent?

Originally Posted by #188

Mainly gut-feeling - a couple of her posts have nudged me the wrong way. I mentioned Day 1 that some of her reasoning felt forced. Nothing concrete, but enough to keep me wary.

List time:

Likely Innocent
McCobbler
Nerwen
Greenie

More Innocent Than Not
Cop
Echo
Boro

No Read
Steve
Lommy
Shasta
Holbytlass

Could Be Evil, Maybe
Kath

I might vote for Kath, but not if it'll be a throw-away. Otherwise, I'd prefer my no-reads over the ones I feel better about.

#200. Casts the first vote on Holby.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Okay. Well. At the moment, Nerwen and I both have one vote, while Cop has three. I'm going to

++Holby

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop. I'm off to a nice dinner with the boy. Have a good Night, everyone.

Shasta

#118.
Long post.

Finds Greenie dubious because she “elected not to say anything” regarding the number of villains and for her “delayed reaction” to Echo’s vote on Kath (that is, Greenie first simply reminded Echo to bold the vote, then only later reacted with shock to its contents).
Believes a post of Cop’s that Lommy found suspect was just “Cop’s brand of humour. very dry, that one.” Like Lottie, finds Cop’s controversial posts of the previous Day to be more innocent than not, though he also comments,

Originally Posted by Shasta

Although this bit was a bit of an eyebrow-raiser -
Quote:

I honestly can't tell if the fact that she considered how saying that would make her look before posting it makes her look better or worse.

He spends some time making a case against Legate (!), whom he doesn’t seem to realise is dead (?). In the course of this he several times he approvingly cites points made by Lommy.

Shasta concludes his post with this:

Lottie's vote post at #97 makes me uneasy. The tone is almost as if she's grateful her vote choices have been narrowed down, and that's never something an innocent actively wants.

Holby, by contrast, has a much more panicky feel to it (context - Lottie's post was seven minutes before DL, Holby's was five, so both extremely close to the end of the day, but Lottie was pretty calm about the whole thing.) I would, however, like to know why Holby found Legate more suspicious than Cop or Kath. I don't thinK I remember her being suspicious of him prior.

And Eonwe casts the deciding vote for Legate over Kath. He mentions Legate as a possible wolf earlier, so no real surprises there. Definitely worth a look later though, depending on what Kath turns out to be if she dies.

Echo makes the first post of Day 2 and mentions four people in his/her post - none of which are Kath. Curiouser and curiouser.

Curiouser and curiouser is right! How could either a wolf OR Seer not be aware of who had been lynched?!


#155.
Another long post.

My refutation (#121) of one of his points against Greenie, and Greenie’s self-defence (#122) are “fair enough”, but “I just think the two posts taken together look strange”.

Banter with Lommy.

Disputes Boro’s contention (#137) that Holby’s weird list of the Day before was in itself suspicious:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't know that I buy this. I've seen things said purely in jest taken as "evidence" before, and I think it's very rarely ended well.

Agrees with Boro that Lottie’s “I’m inclined to think they’re both innocent” statement looks bad. [Note: Boro speaks of this as having referred to Lommy and Legate; actually it was Greenie and Legate]

Disagree with Kath (#138) that Cop’s vote for Legate was fishy, pointing out that Cop needed to save herself. Is curious, though, why Cop herself didn’t mention this as a reason. Supports Kath’s suggestion to Echo (that he/she should star giving clearer answers).

Responding to Greenie’s suspicion list (#151):

Originally Posted by Shasta

So you aren't going to attempt to fry the lone fish in your fourth (and most suspicious) category? You're not really helping me think you innocent, Greenie.

Note mild defence of Holby. On the other, the spat with Greenie doesn’t look that much like wolf-on-wolf to me– though who can be sure?

#176 [Replying to a comment by Lommy regarding his strange mistake about Legate]

Originally Posted by Shasta

No no. I wrote that post toDay and posted it when it was done - I just asked that question of Legate early on and forgot to go back and change it.

#213. Self-votes (the last vote of the Day)

Originally Posted by Shasta

I took a nap. My bad.

++Shasta

Well! More Ugh! Shasta’s mistake about Legate is bizarre, coming from a non-ordo of any stripe– yet he must be one.

Their votes are interesting. Shasta could have voted Holby, or could have tied Cop with Holby, negating the lynch– but did neither of these things. Lottie did actually vote the wolf– however, as Boro (I think) pointed out, it was a classic set-up for a “safe” vote.

At this point, by their own accounts, our rival Seers had had the following dreams:

Lottie: Nobody, Me.
Shasta: Me, Lommy. (Should I be flattered to be getting so much attention?)

That coming Night, “Seer” Lottie supposedly dreamed Steve and “Seer”-Shasta dreamed Boro.

Problematic, in both cases. As Shasta was, for all intents and purposes, silent on Day One, we obviously can’t make any comparison between dream-choices and stated suspicions that Day. On Day Two, the best that can be said is that he does nothing that would actually contradict his account– he doesn’t actually seem to have left any clues to his dreams at all. And I have to wonder why he didn’t go on to dream Greenie, his chief suspect at this point.

Lottie’s case is similar– but quite a bit more so. She lists me, her (supposed) sole dream at this point, as “likely innocent”– but couples my name with those of McCaber and Greenie. Meanwhile, apart from the rather sudden vote on Holby, her only real suspicion either Day was Kath, whom she never dreamed either Night.